Mount Tabor, NJ 07834 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Updated Aviation section for the 06Z TAFs.

Increased confidence in areas of fog this morning.

Key messages

1. Spotty minor tidal flooding expected with this morning's high tide.

2. Areas of fog anticipated this morning. Otherwise, no other significant weather concerns over the next several days.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Spotty minor tidal flooding expected with this morning's high tide.

Elevated astro-tides from the recent full moon and northeast onshore flow resulted in some spotty minor tidal flooding across portions of the southern New Jersey, Delaware and areas along the southern Delaware Bay earlier this morning. For those same areas, another round of some spotty minor tidal flooding is possible with the Thursday morning high tide cycle. However, tide levels should be lower than this morning and no advisories are warranted at this time.

No tidal flooding is expected on the tidal Delaware River, northern New Jersey coast, northern Delaware Bay and Chesapeake Bay communities.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Areas of fog anticipated this morning. Otherwise, no other significant weather concerns over the next several days.

Latest trends and guidance support increased confidence in areas of fog and/or low stratus developing through daybreak this morning. Skies have cleared and winds have decoupled early this morning. Some fog and low stratus have already developed, and this is anticipated to continue increasing in coverage through dawn. Cannot totally rule out some locally dense fog, though current guidance suggests widespread dense fog is unlikely. Will continue to monitor.

High pressure moves offshore overnight. A weak cold front passes through the region Friday, and then high pressure returns for the weekend. Low pressure may approach the region for the start of next week, but odds of this are diminishing, which may result in the region staying dry for another week.

Dry conditions are expected through at least Sunday with high temperatures generally from the upper 60s to low 70s on Thursday and Friday. Cooler, but still slightly above normal temperatures expected for this weekend. The only thing of note is some patchy fog developing late tonight/early tomorrow morning, mainly over rural areas across the region. This could result in some brief visibility restrictions during the morning commute, though fog is not currently expected to be widespread.

The system which had been progged to affect the region early next week now appears to weaken and veer away from the region for the most part, keeping our region dry. Extended guidance has a vigorous system affecting the area near the end of next week, which now may be the next decent chance of any rain.

Aviation

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 14Z: Primarily VFR to start, however areas of fog and/or low stratus are anticipated to increase in coverage through dawn. Visibility and ceilings may drop to LIFR at times, especially at ILF, MIV, and ACY. Elsewhere, guidance suggests MVFR is most probable, but cannot rule out some IFR restrictions for the other terminals. Winds mostly calm. Low confidence on details regarding timing and severity of restrictions, however confidence is increasing that restrictions will impact most terminals, especially after 09Z.

Today: VFR following fog and/or low stratus early, which will dissipate by 14Z. Stratus across the Lehigh Valley could linger through most of the morning though, dissipating prior to 18Z. Southwest winds increasing to 5-10 kts. High confidence.

Tonight: VFR. Southwest winds 5-10 kts shifting toward the west after 09Z. High confidence.

Outlook:

Friday: VFR with gusty northwest winds.

Saturday through Monday: VFR. No significant weather.

Marine

Tranquil conditions expected on the waters with no headlines in place. Some areas of fog possible nearshore and across Delaware Bay this morning with visibility 1-3 NM. South to southwest winds 5-10 kts and seas 2 to 3 feet.

Outlook:

Thursday night through Monday: SCA conditions possible in the wake of a cold front late Friday into early Saturday. Otherwise, sub-SCA with fair weather.

Watches, warnings and advisories

PA: None. NJ: None. DE: None. MD: None. MARINE: None.