New Haven, CT 06515 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS warning criteria.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria.

What has changed

No significant changes to the forecast. Updated aviation section for 09Z TAF issuance.

Key messages

1) Frost-Freeze conditions possible outside of NYC/NJ metro tonight into tomorrow morning. Otherwise, dry and increasingly mild conditions for early to mid next week.

2) The next chance of a wetting rain - late next week.

Key message 1

The driest stretch of the year so far persists for the next several days in response to confluent NW upper flow this weekend, giving way to east coast upper ridging thru midweek. At the surface, modified Canadian high pressure builds overhead through this weekend, and then gradually offshore through midweek.

CAA on gusty NW winds continue to subside into this morning. Sunny, dry and seasonably chilly airmass for this weekend. Today will be slightly cooler than Sunday. Highs will generally be in the mid 50s to near 60 today and in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Sunday.

Widespread frost conditions possible, scattered freeze conditions possible, across eastern LI, southern CT and southern Westchester county tonight into early tomorrow morning under good radiational cooling conditions. The one caveat will be the northeastward progression of a cirrus deck associated with shearing central US shortwave, and to a lesser extent upper jet streak aloft and a weak northern stream shortwave moving through northern New England. Although frost-freeze conditions are expected across areas to the north of this, the frost-freeze program has already ended for these interior areas. The frost- freeze program will end for Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Southern Westchester, Coastal Connecticut, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Union the morning of Sunday November 1. So, a frost advisory could be issued for these areas tonight should the forecast hold. However, given the uncertainty with regards to cloud cover timing, have opted to hold off on issuing a frost advisory, at this time.

Gradually moderating conditions for early next week as heights rise aloft and high pressure slides offshore with return SW flow. High temps incrementally rising through the 60s each day, with overnight lows rising from in the 30s and 40s Sunday morning to 40s and 50s by Wednesday morning.

Key message 2

General NWP/AI model agreement in NW PAC troughing slowly moving southeastward across the CONUS through the early-mid next week, approaching the middle eastern US late week. Considerable spread on the particulars of the trough as it moves towards the east coast late week (whether it remains influenced by the northern stream and approaches as a closed low towards the NE/Mid Atlantic US East coast or detaches from northern stream and drifts across the SE US). At least a low potential for a frontal system or low pressure system to affect the area late in the week with a wetting rainfall, but inherently low predictability on details this far out.

Aviation

High pressure through the period.

VFR.

NW winds less than 10 kt through the remainder of the forecast period.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty:

No unscheduled amendments expected. Winds near 310 true for a period this afternoon 18-00Z.

Outlook for 00z sunday through tuesday

Saturday Night: VFR. NW winds around less than 10 kt.

Sunday through Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

Marine

SCA conditions in gusty NW flow will subside into this morning to below SCA conditions by 6AM.

Sub-SCA conditions then expected on all waters late this morning through Wednesday.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CT: None. NY: None. NJ: None. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.