Essex Village, CT 06371 Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

Day one

This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS warning criteria.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria.

What has changed

No significant changes at this time.

Updated Aviation.

Key messages

1) Dry, tranquil conditions persist through the rest of the week.

Key message 1

The driest stretch of the year so far likely continues through at least the end of the week.

Upper level ridging spans much of the Eastern US, with a nearby surface high sliding off the New England coast today. Mid and high clouds will continue to stream overhead through this evening as a weak shortwave rides over the ridge in place. Temperatures will be milder than previous nights, generally falling back into the 40s and 50s.

SW flow develops as the high slips offshore and helps to usher in a bit milder air mass. H925 temps climb into the mid teens on Thursday with deep W/SW flow. With better mixing, this should increase afternoon temperatures a good 5 degrees compared to today, with forecast highs around 70 in the NYC metro, and mid to upper 60s elsewhere.

A moisture-starved cold front moves through Friday. Cloud cover increases Friday morning ahead of the boundary, but conditions remain dry and skies clear by mid afternoon once it passes through. Behind the fropa, dry, cooler conditions settle in for the weekend. Temperatures on Saturday fall back from their peak Thu/Fri, with highs back in the upper 50s and low 60s and evening temperatures into the 40s and upper 30s outside of NYC.

Global guidance has trended drier early next week, with high pressure likely remaining in place. Conditions may begin to turn more unsettled by mid next week.

Aviation

Strong high pressure remains near the area terminals through the TAF period.

VFR.

Any remaining light NE-E winds will eventually become SE-S 5-10 kt late this afternoon. Light and variable winds expected once again this evening and overnight. Winds become more SW Thursday morning remaining at or below 10kt.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty:

Timing of wind direction shifts may +/- an hour from TAFs.

Outlook for 20z thursday through monday

Thursday through Saturday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt possible Fri afternoon.

Sunday: Mainly VFR.

Monday: Manly VFR. Low chance of a shower with lower conditions.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

Marine

Conditions on the coastal waters remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through at least Thursday night.

A cold frontal passage on Friday will lead to an increase in NW winds by late day, with gusts near 25 kt possible on the ocean for a brief period into Friday night. Otherwise, conditions remain sub SCA through at least the weekend with high pressure building in from the Great Lakes.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CT: None. NY: None. NJ: None. MARINE: None.