Manchester, VT 05254 Weather

What has changed

Updated the first key message to remove the SPS information about the elevate fire risk for portions of eastern NY. Also, decreased winds and cloud cover faster based on the last few hours of observations and the GOES-19 satellite imagery. Some higher clouds were added south of I-90 prior to midnight.

Key messages

1) Winds will continue to gradually subside tonight with cold temperatures.

2) Dry weather is expected this weekend through at least the middle of next week, with increasing chances for rain later in the week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1:

The SPS for elevated risk of fire spread for the Hudson Valley, Upper Hudson Valley and Catskills expired at 6 pm. Gusty west to northwest winds will continue to diminish early this evening with the skies becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows will be much colder than last night with mid 20s to lower 30s over the higher terrain: and mid and upper 30s in the valleys. Northwest to north winds will generally be 10 mph or less shortly before or just after midnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

Outside of a few evening showers/sprinkles across portions of the SW Adirondacks, generally dry conditions are expected through the weekend and into the middle of next week. Chances for rain increase later next week ahead of an approaching frontal system and upper level trough, however there remains uncertainty regarding whether upper level systems phase and result in a widespread soaking rain, or the systems remain separate, allowing for a more limited chance for showers.

Aviation

Through 00Z Sunday: VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours for KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. Sct-bkn stratocumulus will gradually diminish this evening prior to 06Z/SAT from KALB-KPSF north. Some higher clouds may impact KPOU early on. The skies will continue to clear prior to 12Z/SAT, then expect a few-sct cumulus and a few-sct cirrus tomorrow late morning through the afternoon with high pressure building in.

LLWS was include prior to 03Z/SAT at KGFL/KALB/KPSF, as the sfc winds have become less than 10 KT, but the 2 kft AGL winds continue to be about 30-35 KT. The winds will vary from the west to northwest at 5-10 KT with a few gusts 15-18 KT prior to 04Z/midnight. The winds will continue to be 4-8 KT by 12Z/Sat: and north to northwest west winds 5-10 KT will persist in the late morning into the afternoon with a few gusts around 15 KT at KPSF in the late morning.

Outlook:

Saturday Night to Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CT: None. NY: None. MA: None. VT: None.