Saxtons River, VT 05101 Weather

What has changed

Slight Chance PoPs were expanded eastward into the Capital District for tonight. Maintained gusty winds behind the cold front on Friday.

Key messages

1) A cold front will bring some light rain showers mainly from the Capital District and points north and west tonight followed by drier and breezy conditions on Friday.

2) Dry weather is expected this weekend through early next week with the next best chance for more widespread rainfall delayed until mid to late next week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1:

A mostly sunny and milder day is in store ahead of an approaching cold front. High temperatures will reach the 60s to around 70 which will be around 10 degrees above normal. While the best forcing will remain north of the area, a passing cold front should contain enough moisture to bring some light rain showers tonight with the higher probabilities north and west of Albany. Latest CAMs still suggest some isolated light showers or sprinkles could extend as far east as the Capital District so introduced slight chance PoPs (15-25%) into these areas. Measurable rainfall is favored for areas north and west of Albany but will likely remain below 0.10 inches. For most areas, it has been nearly 2 weeks since measurable rainfall last occurred. Behind the front, drier and breezy conditions develop on Friday with westerly winds gusting 20 to 30 mph with localized gusts to 35 mph into portions of the Capital District and Berkshires.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

High pressure rebuilds across the region for this weekend with dry and near seasonable weather with light winds. The high shifts to the east early next week allowing for temperatures to run about 5 degrees above normal but mostly dry weather looks to continue. Thereafter, considerable uncertainty still exists when the next best chance for more widespread rainfall occurs. Will run with chance PoPs beginning next Wednesday until confidence in the overall synoptic pattern improves.

Aviation

Through 06z/Fri: VFR conditions are expected for much of the upcoming TAF period. There remain a few patchy clouds at the start of the TAF period but a trend toward SKC conditions are expected prior to daybreak, continuing through the morning hours. Confidence remains low whether any patchy fog forms so held off any inclusion in the TAFs but will amend if necessary. Fair weather cumulus forms midday Thursday through the afternoon with bases around 3500-5000 feet. These cumulus clouds diminish after sunset with a brief period of SKC conditions before clouds increase ahead of a cold front. A few light showers may reach KGFL prior to 06z/Fri so included a PROB30. Any light showers or sprinkles may near KALB/KPSF at the very end of the TAF period.

A light south to calm wind through the rest of the night will become south to southwesterly at around 10 kt by the early afternoon hours Thursday. A few gusts to around 20 kt will be possible this afternoon especially at KALB. Winds remain south to southwesterly 5-10 kt Thursday evening except trend calm at KPOU. Periods of LLWS will be possible at all sites between 00-06z/Fri mainly due to the directional difference from surface winds. Winds at 2000 feet will be 30-35 kt out of the west.

Outlook:

Friday Night to Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CT: None. NY: None. MA: None. VT: None.