Fort Fairfield, ME 04742 Weather

What has changed

- Updated aviation discussion.

Key messages

1) Generally dry weather through early next week. Drought conditions will worsen.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Generally dry weather through early next week. Drought conditions will worsen.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION: A cold front will cross the forecast area early Friday morning, and will be mostly moisture starved. There is a chance for scattered rain showers along this boundary, however, rainfall amounts are likely to remain below a tenth of an inch, with no improvement to drought conditions. A second round of showers will follow, mostly in the north, along a secondary front. Small but non-zero CAPE of up to 200 J/kg along with NW flow 300 to 320 degrees could result in some convective showers behind the secondary front through Friday afternoon and into Friday evening. Unfortunately, another moisture starved system, resulting in minimal precipitation.

High pressure returns through the weekend, keeping the pattern dry. Models are slowing a low pressure system to our west, now projecting primary and secondary FROPA to cross our CWA some Wednesday into Thursday. PWATs are 0.50-1.25", along with relatively dry RHs at the surface the precipitation would need to overcome. Overall, again, no improvement to drought conditions are expected with these showers.

Otherwise, the dry conditons is bad news for the ongoing water resources drought impacting the state. Much of Northern Maine, Central Highlands and Eastern Downeast Maine are experiencing only 50-75% of normal precipitation over the last 30 days. While in the last 14 days areawide is less than 90% of normal. Overall, 30 day Standardized Precipitation Index blend has the Northern 2/3rd of the CWA in the Moderate to Severe Dryness category, with portions of the Upper St. John Basin now dipping into the Extreme Dryness category.

There is 38 USGS streamflow gages across the CWA which remain dismal, with 26 out of the 38 ranked Much Below Normal (<10th percentile). USGS Groundwater sites continue to show struggling groundwater conditions, Clayton Lake is at Record Low (deep) conditions on record (35 year POR). Millinocket, Kenduskeag, Hadley Lakes and Calais all reporting Below to Much Below Normal conditions. Fort Kent is very low end of Normal conditions approaching slipping down into Below Normal conditions. Therefore, the US Drought Monitor continues the entire CWA in at least Moderate Drought with 58% of the CWA in Severe Drought, this has the potential to worsen through the weekend with continued precipitation deficits.

Aviation

Tonight: VFR/MVFR. Isolated/scattered rain showers. Across northern areas southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west/northwest 5 to 10 knots. Across Downeast areas, south/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Southwesterly/westerly low level wind shear regionwide through early morning.

Friday: VFR/MVFR north with scattered to numerous rain showers. VFR Downeast with isolated/scattered rain showers. Across northern areas, northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Across Downeast areas, southwest/west winds around 10 knots, becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Friday night-Saturday: VFR. NW winds 5 to 15 kts.

Saturday night-Monday: VFR. Light W winds Saturday night, shifting W/SW at 5 to 15 kts, with gusts up to 20 kts, Sunday and Monday afternoons.

Monday night-Tuesday: VFR. Winds light and variable.

Marine

SW winds increasing to marginal SCA levels over the coastal and outer waters through Friday morning. Seas increase to 5-6 ft over the coastal waters and 6-7 ft over the outer waters during this time, before dropping Friday morning. An SCA is now in place for the coastal waters for these low end advisory conditions, lasting into Fri morning. NW winds Fri night through Sat likely less than 25 kts. Chance for light showers over waters early Friday morning. Light W to SW winds and seas below 3 ft this weekend.

Watches, warnings and advisories

ME: None. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051.