Caribou, ME 04736 Weather

What has changed

- Updated aviation discussion with issuance of 12z TAFs.

-Rain system next week slowing down. Now forecast to move over region Wednesday into Thursday.

Key messages

1) Generally dry weather through early next week. Drought conditions will worsen.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Generally dry weather through early next week. Drought conditions will worsen.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION: Current high pressure ridge continues to shift eastward, allowing for stronger return flow out of the SW to advect warmer air into the region. Highs on Thursday be quite above average for this time of the year, lifting into the low to mid 60s throughout the forecast area.

Another cold front will cross the forecast area early Friday morning, and will be mostly moisture starved. There is a chance for scattered rain showers along this boundary, however, rainfall amounts are likely to remain below a tenth of an inch, with no improvement to drought conditions. Chance for another round of showers, along a shortwave behind the front. Unfortunately, another moisture starved system, resulting in minimal precipitation.

High pressure returns through the weekend, keeping the pattern dry. Models are slowing a low pressure system to our west, now projecting primary and secondary FROPA to cross our CWA some Wednesday into Thursday. PWATs are 0.50-1.25", along with relatively dry RHs at the surface the precipitation would need to overcome. Overall, again, no improvement to drought conditions are expected with these showers.

Otherwise, the dry conditons is bad news for the ongoing water resources drought impacting the state. Much of Northern Maine, Central Highlands and Eastern Downeast Maine are experiencing only 50-75% of normal precipitation over the last 30 days. While in the last 14 days areawide is less than 90% of normal. Overall, 30 day Standardized Precipitation Index blend has the Northern 2/3rd of the CWA in the Moderate to Severe Dryness category, with portions of the Upper St. John Basin now dipping into the Extreme Dryness category.

There is 38 USGS streamflow gages across the CWA which remain dismal, with 26 out of the 38 ranked Much Below Normal (<10th percentile). USGS Groundwater sites continue to show struggling groundwater conditions, Clayton Lake is at Record Low (deep) conditions on record (35 year POR). Millinocket, Kenduskeag, Hadley Lakes and Calais all reporting Below to Much Below Normal conditions. Fort Kent is very low end of Normal conditions approaching slipping down into Below Normal conditions. Therefore, the US Drought Monitor continues the entire CWA in at least Moderate Drought with 58% of the CWA in Severe Drought, this has the potential to worsen with cMinimal fog on the waters through the weekend.ontinued precipitation deficits.

Aviation

Today: VFR. Southwest winds 5 to 10 kts, increasing to 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to around 20 kts.

Tonight-Friday: VFR/MVFR with chance rain showers, particularly across northern terminals late night, and at southern terminals after midnight. LLWS likely tonight, starting tonight at northern terminals, and after midnight for southern terminals. LLWS ends early Friday morning. SW winds 5 to 15 kts, becoming NW early Friday morning 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts at southern terminals.

Friday night-Saturday: VFR. NW winds 5 to 15 kts.

Saturday night-Monday: VFR. Light W winds Saturday night, shifting W/SW at 5 to 15 kts, with gusts up to 20 kts, Sunday and Monday afternoons.

Marine

Light winds and seas less than 3 ft this morning, with SW winds increasing to marginal SCA levels over the coastal and outer waters this afternoon into Friday morning. Seas increase to 5-6 ft over the coastal waters and 6-7 ft over the outer waters during this time, before dropping Friday morning. An SCA is now in place for the coastal waters beginning 2 PM Thursday for these low end advisory conditions. NW winds Fri night through Sat likely less than 25 kts. Chance for light showers over waters early Friday morning.

Watches, warnings and advisories

ME: None. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051.