Holbrook, MA 02322 Weather

What has changed

No significant changes to the forecast.

Key messages

- Dry, pleasant weather continues through the work week as temperatures warm up.

- Transition to a more unsettled weather pattern by early next week, bringing periodic chances for rain. However, confidence in specific timing remains low.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry, pleasant weather continues through the work week as temperatures warm up.

Large high pressure continues to be the primary driver of the pleasant days and cool nights through Thursday. Expecting another night of radiational cooling dropping temperatures; however, party cloudy skies heading into the overnight hours will likely hinder the cooling effect: expecting temperatures to remain in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Southern New England will see warmer temperatures Thursday and Friday as a surge of warm air advection ahead of a cold front warms 925 mb temperatures to between +11 and +15C: highs Thursday in the low to mid 60s, upper 60s for the Merrimack and Connecticut River Valleys, and highs Friday near 70 for the southern and eastern coastal plains (mid 60s for the interior and Cape/Islands). As the cold front approaches Friday, winds are likely to be gustier than we've seen the last several days: likely 20 to 25 mph at times, possibly 30 to 35 mph in the higher elevations.

Post-FROPA Friday night, skies clear and winds calm for another night of radiational cooling. Temperatures will once again drop into the low to mid 30s for most.

KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure likely to maintain dry weather through at least Monday. A slight risk for some showers Tuesday into Wednesday, but the details are not yet certain.

The dominant high pressure should finally move off the coast Sunday night into Monday. Even then, its influence is expected to slowly diminish into the middle of next week.

There are rather large discrepancies in the evolution of a mid level ridge across the central USA early next week. The magnitude and orientation of this ridge will be the determining factor for the track of a low pressure trying to move east from the Rockies. at this time, thinking this low pressure will struggle to move east quickly. That leaves the positioning of its associated fronts to consider. With the low pressure quite a ways away from southern New England, there will not be much push to move them much as well.

Overall, the most likely outcome is that dry weather prevails. However, a quasi-warm front may get close enough to our region Tuesday into Wednesday to perhaps trigger a few showers. Not seeing much moisture to work with, so any precipitation would be light.

Aviation

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Today: High confidence.

VFR conditions. Light NE winds veer SE as a seabreeze arrives 18-19z. Winds then further veer to SW tonight after sunset.

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR conditions. Initially light winds become SW and increase to 5-10kts overnight.

Thursday: High confidence.

VFR. Light SW winds potentially gust up to 20 kts by mid- morning.

KBOS Terminal: High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal: High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/:

Friday through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night through Monday: VFR.

Marine

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Thursday Night: High confidence.

Light winds and seas 1-3 ft continue as high pressure persists across the coastal waters. High pressure slowly pulls away Thursday with increasing SW winds to between 15 and 20 kts. Marginal SCA conditions possible across the eastern near coastal waters Thursday afternoon then spreads to the southern waters Thursday night.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/:

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CT: None. MA: None. RI: None. MARINE: None.