Salisbury, MA 01952 Weather

What has changed

Increased the forecast wind gusts for Friday. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the forecast.

Key messages

- Gradual warmup brings high temperatures from the 50s to the 60s and 70s Thursday and Friday as the prolonged dry stretch continues. Windy conditions arrive Friday ahead of a weak cold front.

- Transition to a more unsettled weather pattern by early next week, bringing periodic chances for rain. However, confidence in specific timing remains low.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Gradual warmup brings high temperatures from the 50s to the 60s and 70s Thursday and Friday as the prolonged dry stretch continues. Windy conditions arrive Friday ahead of a weak cold front.

Cold start to the day today as efficient radiational cooling has brought some of the coldest air of the season to the region. Lows have ranged from the lower 40s across urban areas to the lower 20s in the valleys of northern Massachusetts. Should see temperatures rebound fairly quickly by the early morning under full sun. Still, it will be somewhat cool today with high temperatures in the mid 50s in the interior and near 60 across the lower CT River Valley. Warmer lows Wednesday night as mid and high clouds overspread the region during the first half of the night. A more narrow window of clearing through the second half of the night will likely result in lows running about 5-10 degrees warmer.

Expecting a rebound in higher temperatures Thursday as a surge of warm advection ahead of a cold front warms 925 mb temperatures to between +11 and +15C.This will yield high temperatures in the mid- 60s on Thursday with a few isolated readings near 70 in the Connecticut and Merrimack River Valleys. Despite the mid-level zonal flow Friday (ahead of our next weak wave), the westerly flow will support efficient mixing in the boundary layer. This will result in a gusty/windier day and likely the warmest day of the week with high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Some of the strongest gusts will likely be found downwind of the Berkshires with a favorable wind direction for downsloping and thus locally higher gusts. NBM continues to highlight probabilities 50-75%+ for temperatures 70F or greater with the highest probabilities for the valleys and I-95 metros. This is reasonable given the added factor of the warming downslope flow. A mild late-October day is looking likely.

Another moisture-starved shortwave and cold front moves overnight Friday. This will shift temperatures back into the lower 60s this weekend, which is seasonable for late October.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Transition to a more unsettled weather pattern by early next week bringing periodic chances for rain. Confidence in specific timing remains low.

Looking ahead to next week, ensemble continues to show a rather chaotic upper level pattern unfolding across the CONUS. A deep trough digs over the western US as a series of embedded shortwaves eject into the plains and track E. Guidance shows a wide range of solutions with the eventual tracks of these systems as they approach the region early next week. Many factors, namely the extent and magnitude of upper level confluence will govern the strength and track of any eventual storms. At the moment, think the NBM has a good handle on POPs Sunday night into Tuesday with probabilities increasing to between 20 and 45 percent.

Aviation

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Today: High confidence.

VFR conditions. Light NE winds veer SE as a seabreeze arrives 18-19z. Winds then further veer to SW tonight after sunset.

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR conditions. Initially light winds become SW and increase to 5-10kts overnight.

Thursday: High confidence.

VFR. Light SW winds potentially gust up to 20 kts by mid- morning.

KBOS Terminal: High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal: High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Monday/:

Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Marine

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Thursday: High confidence.

Light winds and seas 1-3 ft for today as high pressure persists across the coastal waters. High pressure slowly pulls away Thursday with increasing SW winds to between 15 and 20 kts. Marginal SCA conditions possible across the near coastal waters.

Outlook /Thursday through Monday/:

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday Night through Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CT: None. MA: None. RI: None. MARINE: None.