Shelburne Falls, MA 01367 Weather

What has changed

No significant changes to the forecast.

Key messages

- Dry, pleasant weather through the end of the week as high pressure continues to influence our weather.

- High pressure likely to maintain dry weather through at least Monday. A slight risk for some showers Tuesday into Wednesday, but the details are not yet certain.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry, pleasant weather through the end of the week as high pressure continues to influence our weather.

Southern New England will see temperatures about 10-12 degrees above average today and Friday as a surge of warm air advection ahead of a cold front warms 925 mb temperatures to between +11 and +15C. After lows in the 30s and 40s this morning, highs today quickly rebound into the low to mid 60s, upper 60s for the Merrimack and Connecticut River Valleys. Highs climb a few degrees higher on Friday with many places warming near or just above 70 across the southern and eastern coastal plains (mid 60s for the interior and Cape/Islands). As the cold front approaches Friday, winds are likely to be gustier than we've seen the last several days: likely 20 to 25 mph at times, possibly 30 to 35 mph in the higher elevations.

Post-FROPA Friday night, skies clear and winds calm for another night of radiational cooling. Temperatures will once again drop into the low to mid 30s for most.

KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure likely to maintain dry weather through at least Monday. A slight risk for some showers Tuesday into Wednesday, but the details are not yet certain.

The dominant high pressure should finally move off the coast Sunday night into Monday. Even then, its influence is expected to slowly diminish into the middle of next week.

There are rather large discrepancies in the evolution of a mid level ridge across the central USA early next week. The magnitude and orientation of this ridge will be the determining factor for the track of a low pressure trying to move east from the Rockies. at this time, thinking this low pressure will struggle to move east quickly. That leaves the positioning of its associated fronts to consider. With the low pressure quite a ways away from southern New England, there will not be much push to move them much as well.

Overall, the most likely outcome is that dry weather prevails. However, a quasi-warm front may get close enough to our region Tuesday into Wednesday to perhaps trigger a few showers. Not seeing much moisture to work with, so any precipitation would be light.

Aviation

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Today: High confidence.

VFR. SW winds generally sustained around or below 10 kt, gusting to 20 kt by mid-morning. Greatest confidence in gusts for interior terminals.

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR. Areas of MVFR possible mostly towards parts of the interior late tonight into early Fri morning along a dry cold front as it crosses the region.

Friday: High confidence.

VFR. Skies continue clearing through the day following a passing cold front. Gusty W winds in the post-frontal airmass, reaching 20-30 kt in the interior during the afternoon hours. Elsewhere, generally gusting to 20 kt.

KBOS Terminal: High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal: High confidence in TAF. Low chance for some early morning BR between 12-14z this morning. Opted to include as a TEMPO.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/:

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night through Monday: VFR.

Marine

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Friday: High confidence.

Light winds and seas 1-3 ft continue as high pressure persists across the coastal waters. High pressure slowly pulls away Thursday with increasing SW winds to between 15 and 20 kts. Marginal SCA conditions possible across the eastern near coastal waters this afternoon then spreads to the southern waters overnight. Greater chance for SCA conditions Friday afternoon as winds increase to 20-25 kts.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/:

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CT: None. MA: None. RI: None. MARINE: None.