Chester, MA 01011 Weather

What has changed

No significant changes to the forecast.

Key messages

- Windy conditions persist into tonight ahead of high pressure returning this weekend.

- High pressure maintains quiet weather through at least Thursday with warmer than average highs in the 60s.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Windy conditions persist into tonight ahead of high pressure returning this weekend.

High pressure situated to our west will continue tracking eastward into tomorrow, but in the meantime, we find ourselves under a tight pressure gradient between this high and a low over Nova Scotia. This gradient is not expected to relax until around midday tomorrow, which will lead to continued breezy conditions tonight. Gusts to 30 mph are possible, especially towards the coasts, through tonight based on the latest guidance. Further inland, these will be a bit weaker. Lows tonight will be noticeably colder compared to last night following today's cold front and its associated CAA, falling into the 30s across the region. Dry conditions continue as well, with dew points falling into the 30s and 20s through the rest of this afternoon into tonight.

A cooler day is expected Saturday as well due to the aforementioned CAA post-front. 925 mb temperatures dip to around 0C by tomorrow morning (compared to today's 10C temperatures at that level), and NW winds continue, yet weaken with high pressure building in. Highs on Halloween will only reach the 50s as a result. Skies clear, and winds falling to or near calm Halloween night will allow for radiational cooling, dropping lows to the 20s and low 30s for much of the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure maintains quiet weather through at least Thursday with warmer than average highs in the 60s.

High pressure will remain firmly in control of southern New England's weather clear through at least mid to late week as this stretch of pleasant weather continues. A large high moving in from New York will initially move overhead on Sunday, replaced by another dropping south from Canada into Maine mid week. A weak trough will pass over the Canadian maritimes around Tuesday bringing the potential for some showers to northern New England but lack of moisture and dynamics over SNE will keep us dry. The next chance for a pattern change comes around late Thursday/Friday when a mid level trough may dig into the mid-Atlantic, but that is not a certainty at this point. EPS and GEFS ensembles paint a 70-90% chance of measurable rain by Friday. In the mean time, high pressure maintains a milder than average airmass overhead leading to comfortable highs in the 60s all week. Winds should be light until Friday when our passing low would bring a period of gusty winds.

Aviation

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update:

Rest of Today and Tonight: High confidence.

VFR. NW winds sustained up to 12-17 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt through the rest of the afternoon into this evening. Latest guidance favors gusty conditions continuing for most spots overnight tonight. Gusts to 25 kt possible tonight for many, with the exception of more interior terminals, especially BDL. Still breezy overnight in these areas, with winds sustained around 10 kt.

Saturday and Saturday Night: High confidence.

VFR. NW to N winds around 10-13 kt with gusts in the low 20s kt range, with gusts easing in the afternoon. Winds then go light WNW and to calm overnight.

KBOS Terminal: High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal: High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/:

Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night through Wednesday: VFR.

Marine

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday Night: High confidence.

SCAs remain in effect through 18z Saturday given NW winds gusting to 30 kt through tonight and seas to 5 ft into Saturday morning for the outer waters. These conditions are mostly due to a cold front passing through this afternoon that has brought gusts to 25-30 kt across southern New England and is expected to do so over the waters, too, as it crosses them this evening.

Heading into Saturday evening and Saturday night, winds and seas diminish; winds generally fall to 10 kt or less and seas decrease to around 2-3 ft.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/:

Sunday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CT: None. MA: None. RI: None. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ230>237- 251-255-256. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ250-254.