Waverly, WV Weather

What has changed

00Z aviation discussion has been issued. River valley fog potential for tonight was also scaled back to the mountains.

314 PM EDT update:

The chance for rain late Sunday into early next week has been lowered, with now just isolated showers or sprinkles expected across far western West Virginia, northeast Kentucky, and portions of southeast Ohio.

Key messages

1) Mostly dry through the weekend, then precipitation chances return to the area during the new work week, primarily Wednesday onward.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1:

A weak surface cold front has slipped south of the CWA today, with associated low/mid cloud cover across the higher terrain having dissipated, leading to widespread sunshine this afternoon amid temperatures a few degrees cooler than that of yesterday. Lows tonight will generally range from the low/mid 30s across the mountains, while mid 30s (typical northern valley cold spots) to mid 40s across the lowlands. Some frost is expected across the mountains, and potentially the northern lowlands, but would be rather isolated and not necessitate a headline. Some patchy dense river valley fog is expected in the 'typical' locations towards dawn.

Dry weather then continues through much of the weekend as surface high pressure traverses north of the area, with temperatures remaining in general ~ 5-10 degrees above normal, but amid a decent amount of upper-level cloud cover. A weak, traversing upper wave will bring the potential for showers Sunday night into Monday, but overall, dry low-levels and downsloping flow will result in showers (sprinkles) being of the isolated variety, primarily confined to far western West Virginia, northeast Kentucky, and portions of southeast Ohio.

Temperatures will warm back into the low/mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday given strengthening return flow ahead of the next stronger disturbance approaching from the central CONUS. This disturbance and associated frontal boundary will bring a much higher potential for the first area-wide rainfall in over two weeks to the region beginning later Wednesday and especially on Thursday.

Aviation

VFR will prevail for the TAF period at all terminals, with winds diminishing and veering eastward overnight. Fog was scaled back from the previous forecast; however, light fog remains a possibility at KEKN tonight beneath a thickening cirroform overcast across the region. VSBYs from fog should remain VFR at KEKN, with any fog eroding by 31/14Z. The high-altitude overcast will gradually descend to around 10-15 kft AGL over the next 24 hours at all terminals.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY:

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may not develop at KEKN tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SAT UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY: VFR overcast will persist into Sunday, with a slight chance of light rain showers near or west of KHTS and KPKB heading into Monday.

Watches, warnings and advisories

WV: None. OH: None. KY: None. VA: None.