Carbonado, WA Weather

Synopsis

An upper level low will continue to weaken into Saturday, with drying and cooling conditions through the weekend. Upper level ridging will build through the first half of next week for continued dry conditions, before additional systems look to arrive by midweek.

Short term

Recent radar imagery shows a bulk of showers moving in from the south, with some areas over the Puget Sound seeing continuous rainfall. High temperatures in the low to mid 50s across much of the interior. Showers will continue this afternoon before decreasing in coverage and intensity by the overnight hours. An upper level low will start to move southwards and weaken, taking away the showery influence over western Washington. We'll start a dry and cool trend heading into the weekend, with afternoon temps staying in the low 50s. Overnight lows, especially tonight into Saturday morning, will cool, with areas in the Southwest Interior seeing below freezing temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s. Therefore, the Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for those locations. Crops and sensitive vegetation may die as a result of temperatures that low, so take the proper precautions to protect things like that if needed. Besides the cold temperatures, should be dry for any trick or treaters.

Dry and cool conditions through Sunday over the region. Overnight low temperatures will be flirting with freezing temperatures as well, in the low 30s.

Mazurkiewicz

Long term

Ensemble guidance remains in reasonably good agreement for the first half of next week with an upper ridge remaining generally over the region for the start of next week. This will maintain mostly dry conditions, though a portion of ensemble members bring a weak disturbance into the ridge enough to bring some light precipitation chances (20-30%) west of Puget Sound. Another weak disturbance brings similar chances toward midweek. A more notable shift in the pattern becomes more likely late in the week with a stronger front approaching Western Washington, but it's worth noting that there's significantly increasing spread in the potential evolution of the pattern by that time. Cullen

Aviation

Another round of steadier rain is rotating through the region this afternoon with two main areas - one across central Puget Sound and another along the coast. Each of this is bringing fairly widespread rain which is lowering ceilings and restricting visibility into the MVFR to IFR categories. While there was one small embedded thunderstorm in the coastal line, the chances for more lightning remains too low (10-15%) for TAF inclusion. After these next few areas pivot across the area through this evening, shower activity should subside with gradual clearing. However, the light winds and clearing skies bring likely IFR conditions in fog/low stratus for most terminals late tonight through Saturday morning. Return to VFR conditions likely as fog scatters and lifts into the afternoon tomorrow.

KSEA: MVFR conditions are expected in steadier rain this afternoon. Northerly winds will become east/southeast by late evening, with rain tapering early tonight. This should bring a gradual clearing trend, but this will result in IFR fog/low stratus Saturday morning at the terminal lasting through late morning or midday. Cullen

Marine

Weak surface low pressure over the coastal waters will remain in place into Saturday before dissipating as high pressure builds across the interior of Western Washington early in the coming week. Southeasterly winds over the coastal waters this afternoon will reach 15 to 20 kts at times, but should remain under small craft advisory criteria. Winds look to remain generally benign and light across the area waters through the first half of next week.

Coastal seas 4 to 6 feet through the weekend. Seas will build to slowly build late Sunday into Monday, back around 10 to 11 feet as a larger swell train approaches.

Mazurkiewicz

Watches, warnings and advisories

WA: Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Saturday for Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Middle Chehalis River Valley.

PZ: None.