Wolf Trap, VA Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

Day one: Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven: Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Small tweaks to the wind gusts for this afternoon and lowering dew points for tomorrow, but otherwise forecast looks good with benign conditions through the start of next week.

Key messages

- 1) Precipitation chances return on Wednesday and linger through the end of the week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Precipitation chances return on Wednesday and linger through the end of the week.

A weak, dry cold front crossing the region earlier this morning is now bringing in a much drier airmass. Mostly sunny skies this afternoon with breezy conditions (gusts around 20-30 mph). Winds quickly subside this evening as high pressure builds in from the north. Seasonable temperatures expected this weekend as highs reach the 60s and lows in the 40s each day.

Surface high pressure moves offshore at the start of next week, though dry conditions are maintained through at least Tuesday. A decaying shortwave trough aloft is now forecast to pass to our south, with likely not even a few showers in the forecast now. Temperatures moderate in response to the east to southeast flow with highs forecast in the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday and Tuesday.

The weather pattern becomes more active beginning midweek as a deep upper trough approaches from the west. Global guidance shows a range of solutions with the commonality being multiple cut-off lows. The GFS has two located over central CONUS tracking along the trough. The Canadian has one over central CONUS and another off the coast of the Carolina's. The Euro has two over central CONUS while hinting at low pressure off the coast of the Carolina's. Either way, an active weather pattern is expected as the trough tracks eastward through the end of next week. Precipitation chances increase on Wednesday with widespread rain likely on Thursday into Thursday night.

High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s east of the Blue Ridge with those along and west in the upper 50s to 60s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 50s each night.

Aviation

VFR conditions are expected through at least Tuesday of next week as high pressure maintains dry conditions across the region. Northwest winds gust around 20-25 knots through this afternoon.

Marine

SCA conditions are expected through tonight across the waters where northwest winds are gusting 20-25 knots. High pressure builds across the region tonight through the start of next week, bringing several days of favorable marine conditions.

Watches, warnings and advisories

DC: None. MD: None. VA: None. WV: None. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>543.