Franklin Farm, VA Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

Day one: Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven: Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

There have been no significant changes to the forecast.

Key messages

- 1) Benign weather continues through the remainder of October with near to above normal temperatures expected.

- 2) Precipitation chances return in early November.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Benign weather continues through the remainder of October with near to above normal temperatures expected.

Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will drive a weak cold front into the region from the north and west today. The front will cross the area this morning before stalling/washing out to the south/east this afternoon. By Wednesday morning, the same front will retreat back to the north as a warm front. Another large area of high pressure will build to the north Thursday through Saturday. As a result, expect passing high clouds and a series of wind shifts with each of the frontal passages. Winds will remain light out of the north and northwest today. Winds will change to the south and southwest late Wednesday through Friday. This will yield seasonable to above normal temperatures for the remainder of the workweek. Highs will generally range from the mid 60s and low 70s though Wednesday with low to mid 70s Thursday and mid to upper 70s Friday. This is thanks to the position of the high to the north leading to increased southeast to southwest winds across the region. Overnight lows will remain mild as well in the mid 40s and low 50s.

There is the potential for some low clouds, fog, or even a little drizzle during the late night into morning hours each of the next few days as onshore flow develops.

Otherwise, dry conditions will continue through Saturday, although this will be a day of transition as the pattern begins to loosen. Upper-level ridging will buckle with an incoming trough from the Midwest region. This trough will ultimately bring an end to the dry conditions with increasing cloud cover and precipitation chances heading into the first few days of November. Despite the increased cloud cover, expect highs Saturday back in the upper 60s and low 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Precipitation chances return in early November.

Upper-level ridging overhead breaks down into zonal flow by Sunday. Conditions likely start to become cloudier by the second half of the weekend as troughing develops over the Ohio River Valley before heading east Sunday into Monday. This will bring the first chances for precipitation over the Mid-Atlantic in over a week, although overall breadth and total rainfall from this system remain uncertain at this time.

Temperatures likely drop back to the low 70s over the weekend in the wake of another weak (dry) front. With overnight lows generally remaining in the 40s and 50s, this ranges somewhat above normal for the beginning of November. Looking ahead, model guidance hints at a second, potentially more potent upper-level trough approaching the area that could bring additional chances for precipitation by the middle of next week.

Aviation

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through tonight. Winds will remain light out of the north to northeast. Light onshore flow could lead to some patchy low clouds/fog in outlying areas late tonight.

Winds will shift to the southeast Wednesday ahead of a warm frontal boundary. This will lead to the potential for low clouds and fog, especially at CHO and MRB given the marine influence/increased surface moisture banking along the eastern side of the Blue Ridge mountains and up the Potomac River Valley. Confidence in this is low, although hi-res models have shown some consistency in recent cycles. Aside from early morning low clouds and/or fog, VFR conditions are expected Wednesday night through Saturday as high pressure builds along the coast. Winds will turn south to southwesterly Thursday before becoming easterly Saturday. The next chance for rain showers occurs Sunday with an incoming cold front, but uncertainty remains high at this time.

Marine

A brief period of N/NE wind gusts of 15-20 knots is possible as a weak cold front passes through mid morning. Otherwise, light northeast to east winds are expected through tonight.

Winds become southeasterly Wednesday before turning southerly Thursday. Some channeling is possible at times, though overall gradients look weak. Winds stay below SCA thresholds through the end of the month. Southerly winds shift westerly on Friday, then northeasterly on Saturday.

Tides/coastal flooding

Light onshore flow Wednesday into Thursday may push sensitive shoreline close to minor flood stage. Areas most at risk for reaching minor tidal flood thresholds would be places like Annapolis and Alexandria mainly during the evening tide cycles (which are astronomically higher).

Watches, warnings and advisories

DC: None. MD: None. VA: None. WV: None. MARINE: None.