Sonora, TX Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

- Heavy rain and flash flood potential for portions of the area mainly west of a Sonora to San Angelo to Sweetwater line this afternoon through Friday.

- Low to medium chance (20-50 percent) of showers and thunderstorms Monday and Monday night, followed by gusty northwest winds on Tuesday.

Short term

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Large rain shield moving north across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country early this afternoon, with more scattered showers developing across the Concho Valley ahead of it. Rain totals across I-10 have been small so far with some sites recording around 1/10 of an inch, but heavier totals were noted near Del Rio where some sites have seen over 2 inches.

Rain shield will continue to spread north across West Central Texas for the afternoon and evening, with embedded stronger showers and some thunderstorms producing relatively brief moderate to heavy rainfall. Still totals for the rest of the afternoon not likely to be terribly high. As mentioned yesterday, this first wave is largely stratiform with very little lightning involved.

More concentrated area of lift approaches this evening into Friday morning, and this is where the greatest potential of heavy rainfall exists. PWAT values of 1.50 inches or higher will be place (2-3 SD above normal) as the abundant gulf moisture combines with the remnants of Vance. Southwest flow and an approaching shortwave will combine with some decent upper jet dynamics and a strengthening low level jet overnight (40-45kts from Del Rio to Midland). Weak 700mb low may also develop along the Texas-New Mexico border. Its going to rain across much of the area, its more a question of impacts.

Thunderstorms and heavier showers likely to be more numerous tonight into Friday, although the individual storms may be moving fairly quickly and these high rainfall rates may not last very long. This leads to questions about flood potential. Rainfall totals by the time the rain ends Friday afternoon may be in the 2-3+ inch range for portions of the Concho Valley south into the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. But impacts may be more limited thanks to the stop and start nature of the high rainfall rates spread out over numerous hours, instead of falling in a more concentrated burst.

Issued the Flash Flood Watch for a portion of the area including Mertzon, Eldorado, Ozona, Sonora, and Junction where the threat of more of these high rainfall rate bursts are more likely. This is also the area where the low level jet would seem to hold the moisture convergence in place longer into Friday. Left it out of the rest of the Concho Valley for now where the threat looks a little lower. This will obviously need to be closely monitored and if the threat looks like it wants to work farther north and east, the watch may need to be expanded into San Angelo itself. If the 700 mb low develops, this may help hold an area of heavier convection across the Permian Basin that would eventually work its way towards Sterling City and Sweetwater as well. CAMs show some significant differences, largely due to how each of the models handle all of the mesoscale features likely to develop.

Low level jet weakens Friday morning, and the shortwave lifts out of the area to the northeast. Widespread showers and storms Friday morning will gradually end from southwest to northeast across the area.

Long term

(Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

System today and tomorrow will be exiting the area, but models continue to show a weaker shortwave moving quickly into the area Friday night into early Saturday. This will keep some showers possible across the area for a little longer, with the activity ending from west to east during the day on Saturday. Showers likely to be pretty light. Dry for Saturday Night into Monday as a weak upper level ridge dominates.

Next system moves into the Plains for Monday into Wednesday, with a potent upper level low spinning up and dropping southeast from the Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This places West Central Texas mainly on the drier west side of the system, but there remains some significant uncertainty on this track. Some models do have the system farther west and bring better rain chances into more of the area, especially the eastern third.

Passage of this system will finally bring a stronger cold front and a drier air mass. Not going to argue with the lows in the 40s for mid week that the models are showing.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Expect widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings for the next 24 hours. However, a few hours of low end VFR ceilings are possible at the terminals mainly early this evening. Also, expect widespread light to moderate rain tonight through Friday morning. A few thunderstorms are possible mainly across the Northern Edwards Plateau.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Abilene 59 66 58 75 / 90 100 50 20 San Angelo 56 67 57 76 / 100 100 50 20 Junction 56 69 58 77 / 80 90 50 30 Brownwood 58 68 56 76 / 70 90 60 40 Sweetwater 58 63 57 73 / 100 100 50 20 Ozona 57 67 58 74 / 100 100 50 10 Brady 57 66 57 74 / 60 90 50 40

Watches, warnings and advisories

Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Crockett-Irion-Kimble- Schleicher-Sutton.