- Highest rain chances across the brush country today with drier conditions expected this weekend into early next week.
- Above normal temperatures are expected by this weekend, with a cold front expected to bring cooler temperatures late Tuesday.
- A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect until 7 AM Friday for the Lower Texas Coast beaches and may need to be extended into Sunday.
Discussion
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Abundant tropical moisture continues to work into Texas from the west, with showers just edging into Zapata County. Expect the heaviest activity to remain generally north of the CWA, with a few showers sneaking into Jim Hogg and Starr counties. An isolated sea breeze shower or two may develop across the RGV this afternoon. Above normal temperatures and drier conditions arrive by Friday, maintain a very warm Halloween weekend, and continue into early next week. A potent low pressure system swings through the Southern Plans Monday into Tuesday, kicking up a warm and breezy Monday before sending a cold front through Deep South Texas on Tuesday with cooler temperatures into Wednesday.
Persistent easterly flow across the Gulf and elevated astronomical tides continue to narrow beaches during high tide cycles into the weekend. Coastal Flood Statements may need to be extended into Sunday morning. Expect elevated rip currents into the weekend as well with the easterly long-period swell.
Aviation
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
VFR conditions prevail through the TAF cycle. An isolated shower or two is possible at MFE overnight, which may bring brief MVFR ceilings. Southeasterly winds this evening (with an occasional gust to 20 kts through 01Z at HRL and MFE), becoming light and variable overnight generally from the east-southeast, before increasing to 10-15 kts late Friday morning.
Marine
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Persistent long-period easterly swell continues along the western Gulf waters with generally favorable marine conditions and low to moderate seas. As the pressure gradient strengthens early next week, winds across the bay may approach Small Craft Caution conditions. A cold front arrives on Tuesday with SCEC conditions possible into mid next week.
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