Nesbitt, TX Weather

: New DISCUSSION:

Key messages

Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Dry and mild conditions will continue with increasing clouds before showers return overnight Friday into Saturday

- Scattered showers are expected to continue through the day Saturday, gradually tapering off from west to east, making for a damp evening for our trick-or-treaters.

- Another round of rainfall and potentially organized thunderstorms looks to arrive Monday into Tuesday as a potent cold front approaches by the middle of next week.

Discussion

Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

As this work week approaches its end, the ridging over the south- central CONUS will be nudged east and out of our region as a shortwave trough takes shape on its western flank over New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma. This troughing will drift northeast into the early weekend, with a vaguely defined weakness over Kansas and into the Ozarks. This position as well as the pseudo-zonal flow aloft and southerly surface flow will inject sufficient moisture into the ArkLaTex to support shower development for Halloween.

In the meantime, before this pattern shift, mild temperatures and quiet conditions will continue, with overnight lows dropping into the middle 50s east to lower 60s west. As the shortwave emerges to our west, moisture being steered into the region will favor more consistent cloud cover, trending mostly cloudy to overcast overnight and continuing into tomorrow, which will help moderate temperatures, with highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s north and west to lower 80s southeast.

The arrival of rainfall has accelerated slightly on the most recent NBM consensus, favoring arrival as soon as Friday afternoon and evening for our westernmost zones of deep east Texas, spreading areawide overnight and continuing through the day Saturday. Also of note, PoPs have trended upwards into the 50 to 70 percent range, indicating increasing confidence. Bear in mind, this is not representative of coverage, which may still trend spotty to scattered. Trends still favor rain coming to an end from west to east after sunset, but the speed of this clearing is still uncertain, and area trick-or-treaters ought to be prepared to dodge some showers. A few rumbles of thunder are also possible. A few lingering showers are possible towards dawn Sunday across our easternmost zones, with a dry second half of the weekend to follow.

The shortwave looks on track to push east through the day Sunday, leaving the remainder of the weekend quiet and warm as a quickly building ridge sets up and is promptly ushered to the east by the next system taking shape over the Pacific Northwest. As a closed low makes its way east over the Rockies, its associated trough will dig southwards, maintaining the closed low as it ejects east over the southern Plains of north Texas and Oklahoma. Compared to previous runs, the latest GFS depicts a reduced deepening of the low, but extended southward reach of the amplified trough. The closed low, if it retains its definition, looks to keep along the I-40 corridor from Oklahoma into Arkansas, keeping the ArkLaTex in a southwest flow regime aloft with southerly surface flow as the attendant cold front approaches. Bearing in mind that numerous variables remain in play, rainfall chances look to increase Monday afternoon into Tuesday night, with the latest GFS and Euro actually in agreement that the best chance for an organized line of storms looks to be around mid-day Tuesday. As of this writing, the confidence has not yet increased enough to advertise an organized threat, but as we enter our fall severe weather season, we are closely monitoring the evolving forecast for early next week.

Behind the cold front, temperatures look to return to near- seasonable values, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s by mid to late next week.

/26/

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

All sites should prevail VFR through the period. A high cirrus layer is expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and continue into the day tomorrow. Recent satellite imagery depicts a 5000 ft cloud layer moving northeast into the region, which will remain for most sites before thinning out overnight tonight. The persistant cloud cover should keep fog from developing tomorrow morning unless coverage is patchier than expected. Winds should stay generally easterly at around 5 kts. One variable not accounted for is upcoming rainfall this weekend, which some models try to introduce as early as tomorrow morning. Should there be anymore clarity on rain timing, information will be included in future packages. /57/

Spotter information statement

Issued at 120 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Spotter activation may be needed today in the event of wildfire development. /15/

Preliminary point temps/pops

SHV 58 80 63 79 / 0 0 30 50 MLU 55 82 61 81 / 0 0 20 40 DEQ 59 80 58 75 / 0 0 30 60 TXK 60 80 59 78 / 0 0 30 60 ELD 53 80 57 78 / 0 0 30 50 TYR 63 80 61 79 / 10 10 30 50 GGG 59 80 60 79 / 0 0 30 50 LFK 59 80 62 82 / 0 0 20 40

Watches, warnings and advisories

AR: None. LA: None. OK: None. TX: None.