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Commerce, TX Weather

It is 53°F and clear in Commerce, TX, observed at 6:35 AM CDT. Today: Partly Sunny, high 83°F, low 63°F. Hourly and 10-day forecast from the National Weather Service. Times are local (CDT).

Commerce, TX current weather

53°F

Clear

H 83° / L 63°Feels like 53°

  • No rain expected in the next 12 hours

Observed at Greenville / Majors (16.4 mi away), 10/28/2026, 6:35 AM CDT

Hourly forecast

NWS, updated 10/28/2026, 4:06 AM PT

  1. Now58°
  2. 8 AM58°
  3. 9 AM62°
  4. 10 AM70°
  5. 11 AM75°
  6. 12 PM78°
  7. 1 PM80°
  8. 2 PM82°
  9. 3 PM82°
  10. 4 PM82°
  11. 5 PM83°
  12. 6 PM81°
  13. 7 PM78°
  14. 8 PM74°
  15. 9 PM69°
  16. 10 PM68°
  17. 11 PM67°
  18. Thu12 AM66°
  19. 1 AM66°
  20. 2 AM65°
  21. 3 AM65°
  22. 4 AM64°
  23. 5 AM64°
  24. 6 AM64°
  25. 7 AM64°
  26. 8 AM63°
  27. 9 AM67°
  28. 10 AM73°
  29. 11 AM77°
  30. 12 PM80°
  31. 1 PM82°
  32. 2 PM83°
  33. 3 PM84°
  34. 4 PM85°
  35. 5 PM83°
  36. 6 PM83°
  37. 7 PM79°
  38. 8 PM73°
  39. 9 PM72°
  40. 10 PM70°
  41. 11 PM69°
  42. Fri12 AM69°
  43. 1 AM68°
  44. 2 AM67°
  45. 3 AM66°
  46. 4 AM66°
  47. 5 AM65°
  48. 6 AM65°

10-day forecast

Tap a day for details

  • Today10/28Low 63°High 83°

    Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 83. South southeast wind 0 to 10 mph.

    Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. South wind around 5 mph.

    Partly Sunny
  • Thu10/29Low 64°High 85°

    Thursday: Partly sunny. High near 85, with temperatures falling to around 83 in the afternoon. South wind 0 to 5 mph.

    Thursday Night: Cloudy, with a low around 64. Southeast wind 0 to 5 mph.

    Partly Sunny
  • Fri10/3045% chance of precipitationLow 58°High 77°

    Friday: Mostly cloudy. High near 77, with temperatures falling to around 74 in the afternoon. East southeast wind around 5 mph.

    Friday Night: A chance of rain showers after 7pm. Mostly cloudy. Low around 58, with temperatures rising to around 60 overnight. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

    Mostly Cloudy
  • Sat10/3158% chance of precipitationLow 58°High 76°

    Saturday: A chance of rain showers before 1pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. South southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

    Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East northeast wind 0 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

    Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
  • Sun11/128% chance of precipitationLow 60°High 79°

    Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 79. East wind 0 to 5 mph.

    Sunday Night: A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

    Partly Sunny
  • Mon11/254% chance of precipitationLow 58°High 80°

    Monday: A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

    Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

    Chance Rain Showers
  • Tue11/337% chance of precipitationLow 49°High 75°

    Tuesday: A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

    Tuesday Night: A slight chance of rain showers before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

    Chance Rain Showers
  • Wed11/4Model blendLow 46°High 72°

    Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High near 72°. Low that night near 46°. About 0.02 in of precipitation.

    Computer model guidance from the NOAA National Blend of Models, not a forecast written by NWS forecasters. Expect changes this far out.

  • Thu11/5Model blendLow 46°High 72°

    Thursday: Mostly sunny. High near 72°. Low that night near 46°.

    Computer model guidance from the NOAA National Blend of Models, not a forecast written by NWS forecasters. Expect changes this far out.

  • Fri11/6Model blendLow High 72°

    Friday: Mostly sunny. High near 72°. About 0.03 in of precipitation.

    Computer model guidance from the NOAA National Blend of Models, not a forecast written by NWS forecasters. Expect changes this far out.

Forecast for 33.257, -95.897 from the NWS FWD office, updated 10/28/2026, 4:06 AM PT · Official forecast on weather.gov

Days 8 to 10: NOAA National Blend of Models, station KGVT (Greenville/Majors Arpt, 16 mi), model run 10/27/2026, 6:00 PM CDT

Forecaster's discussionIssued 10/28/2026, 5:50 AM CDT

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Thursday.

- Isolated showers and storms (20% chance) are possible near and south of I-20 today.

- Higher rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures are expected from late Thursday through Saturday.

Short term

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A warm/moist advection regime will remain in place today, sending a swath of low stratus and perhaps even some fog into parts of Central Texas later this morning. While zonal flow will prevail aloft devoid of any meaningful ascent, warm/moist advection should be sufficient to result in isolated coverage of showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm mainly south of I-20 during the daytime today. Coverage is likely to only be around 20% or less. Increasing cloud cover may shave a couple degrees off of afternoon highs, but they will still be soundly above normal in the upper 70s and lower 80s. It will also be increasingly and unseasonably humid as surface dewpoints climb into the 60s later today.

The onset of subtle mid-level shortwave ridging should largely eliminate rain chances from this evening into Thursday morning before our next chance for rain begins Thursday afternoon/evening. An unseasonably warm/humid airmass will remain in place while upper troughing deepens across the western CONUS, allowing a strengthening subtropical jet streak to impinge on the area. Widespread mid/high cloud cover should begin streaming into the western half of the area by Thursday afternoon, with showers becoming increasingly likely late in the day. PoPs will be capped at roughly 30% through the daytime before the peak rain chances arrive in the long term forecast period.

Long term

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Remnants of a Pacific tropical system will phase with broad troughing already in place heading into Friday, and this will lead to rain chances to end the workweek and begin the weekend. In comparison to previous forecasts, overall rain chances and expected amounts have both decreased slightly, with the trajectory of this system trending increasingly north/northwest of the forecast area. Areas near/west of I-35 will experience scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on an intermittent basis from Thursday night through Saturday as this system gradually ejects into the Central Plains, but coverage of measurable rainfall may be much more scant east of the I-35 corridor. Either way, this system's presence will make for a mostly cloudy and therefore slightly cooler start to the weekend with highs in the mid/upper 70s. An overall lack of instability should keep occurrences of thunder rather scarce, and this system will only really consist of beneficial rainfall for the lucky locations that manage to receive some. Most of this activity should be on a downward trend by Saturday evening, keeping the majority of Halloween evening activities unaffected.

A much more potent storm system is still on track to take hold of the central CONUS by early next week. Following a likely rain- free Sunday, this rapidly deepening system could send a cold front through the forecast area sometime Monday or early Tuesday, which would be accompanied by additional chances for showers and storms. The finer details of this system will become clearer in the next few days, but at a minimum, a decent fall frontal passage is looking increasingly likely during the first half of next week.

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

MVFR stratus has surged northward during the past couple of hours, and is now expected to encroach on D10 airports for at least a couple of hours this morning. A short Tempo group has been introduced to include cigs near 2 kft, with uncertainty in the longevity of these conditions. For Waco, IFR cig heights will be possible for the next couple of hours, but should lift to MVFR heights fairly quickly after daybreak. Lifting/scattering to VFR at all airports is expected by mid to late morning. While a few rain showers are possible mainly in Central Texas this afternoon, the expected coverage is too low to warrant any precip mention in the TAFs at this time. A south/southeast wind around 10 kt will prevail through the duration of the forecast period.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 66 83 66 / 10 10 10 20 Waco 83 64 82 63 / 20 10 20 20 Paris 83 62 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 82 63 83 62 / 10 10 10 20 McKinney 81 63 83 63 / 10 10 0 10 Dallas 83 67 84 66 / 10 10 10 20 Terrell 82 63 84 63 / 10 10 0 10 Corsicana 82 64 83 65 / 20 10 10 20 Temple 84 64 82 63 / 30 10 20 20 Mineral Wells 82 62 82 61 / 10 10 30 40

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.

From the National Weather Service; may be delayed. Not for life-safety decisions. In an emergency, call 911.

Next 6 hours

NWS hourly forecast

  1. Now58°Sunny1%0 mph
  2. 8 AM58°Sunny1%0 mph
  3. 9 AM62°Mostly Sunny1%5 mph
  4. 10 AM70°Partly Sunny2%5 mph
  5. 11 AM75°Partly Sunny2%5 mph
  6. 12 PM78°Partly Sunny2%5 mph

Hourly details

Next 7 days: temperature chart, feels like, rain and snow amounts, sky cover, wind and gustsShow
55°73°90°0%100%WedThuFriSatSunMonTue83°58°85°63°75°63°75°59°79°60°80°61°75°59°

Line: temperature °F. Bars: chance of precipitation.

  1. WedNow58° 1% Sky 25%0g5
  2.  8 AM58° 1% Sky 25%0g6
  3.  9 AM62° 1% Sky 45%5
  4.  10 AM70° 2% Sky 58%5
  5.  11 AM75° 2% Sky 60%5g12
  6.  12 PM78° 2% Sky 60%5g13
  7.  1 PM80° 0% Sky 59%10g15
  8.  2 PM82° 0% Sky 59%10g16
  9.  3 PM82° 0% Sky 58%10g16
  10.  4 PM82° 4% Sky 59%10g15
  11.  5 PM83° 4% Sky 60%10
  12.  6 PM81° 4% Sky 60%5g10
  13.  7 PM78° 4% Sky 60%5
  14.  8 PM74° 4% Sky 58%5
  15.  9 PM69° 4% Sky 57%5
  16.  10 PM68° 1% Sky 53%5
  17.  11 PM67° 1% Sky 49%5
  18. Thu 10/2912 AM66° 1% Sky 46%5
  19.  1 AM66° 1% Sky 42%5
  20.  2 AM65° 1% Sky 48%5
  21.  3 AM65° 1% Sky 47%5
  22.  4 AM64° 2% Sky 47%5
  23.  5 AM64° 2% Sky 41%5
  24.  6 AM64° 2% Sky 57%0g6
  25.  7 AM64° 0% Sky 62%0g6
  26.  8 AM63° 0% Sky 62%0g6
  27.  9 AM67° 0% Sky 57%5
  28.  10 AM73° 0% Sky 58%5
  29.  11 AM77° 0% Sky 62%5
  30.  12 PM80° 0% Sky 58%5
  31.  1 PM82° 0% Sky 51%5g10
  32.  2 PM83° 0% Sky 52%5g12
  33.  3 PM84° 0% Sky 57%5g12
  34.  4 PM85° 1% Sky 58%5g12
  35.  5 PM83° 1% Sky 66%5
  36.  6 PM83° 1% Sky 77%5
  37.  7 PM79° 7% Sky 81%0g5
  38.  8 PM73° 7% Sky 86%0g5
  39.  9 PM72° 7% Sky 86%0g5
  40.  10 PM70° 7% Sky 85%0g5
  41.  11 PM69° 7% Sky 87%0g5
  42. Fri 10/3012 AM69° 7% Sky 89%0g5
  43.  1 AM68° 1% Sky 91%0g5
  44.  2 AM67° 1% Sky 93%0g5
  45.  3 AM66° 1% Sky 94%0g6
  46.  4 AM66° 1% Sky 95%0g6
  47.  5 AM65° 1% Sky 95%0g6
  48.  6 AM65° 1% Sky 95%5
  49.  7 AM64° 2% Sky 95%5
  50.  8 AM66° 2% Sky 92%5
  51.  9 AM68° 2% Sky 90%5
  52.  10 AM70° 2% Sky 87%5
  53.  11 AM72° 2% Sky 85%5g10
  54.  12 PM74° 2% Sky 84%5g10
  55.  1 PM75° 5% Sky 82%5g12
  56.  2 PM75° 5% Sky 82%5g13
  57.  3 PM75° 5% Sky 83%5g13
  58.  4 PM75° 5% Sky 83%5g13
  59.  5 PM74° 5% Sky 85%5g12
  60.  6 PM72° 5% Sky 86%5g10
  61.  7 PM70° 19% Sky 87%5
  62.  8 PM68° 19% Sky 87%5
  63.  9 PM66° 19% Sky 86%5
  64.  10 PM64° 19% Sky 85%5
  65.  11 PM63° 19% Sky 85%5
  66. Sat 10/3112 AM63° 19% Sky 84%5
  67.  1 AM62° 45%0.01"Sky 84%5
  68.  2 AM61° 45%0.01"Sky 85%5
  69.  3 AM61° 45%0.01"Sky 86%5
  70.  4 AM60° 45%0.01"Sky 87%5
  71.  5 AM60° 45%0.01"Sky 87%5
  72.  6 AM60° 45%0.01"Sky 86%5
  73.  7 AM59° 51% Sky 86%5
  74.  8 AM62° 51% Sky 86%5
  75.  9 AM64° 51% Sky 87%5
  76.  10 AM67° 51% Sky 87%5
  77.  11 AM69° 51% Sky 84%5g10
  78.  12 PM71° 51% Sky 81%5g12
  79.  1 PM73° 58% Sky 79%5g13
  80.  2 PM74° 58% Sky 78%5g13
  81.  3 PM74° 58% Sky 78%5g13
  82.  4 PM75° 58% Sky 77%5g12
  83.  5 PM74° 58% Sky 75%5
  84.  6 PM73° 58% Sky 73%5
  85.  7 PM71° 15% Sky 70%5
  86.  8 PM68° 15% Sky 70%5
  87.  9 PM66° 15% Sky 70%0g6
  88.  10 PM64° 15% Sky 70%0g6
  89.  11 PM63° 15% Sky 70%0g6
  90. Sun 11/112 AM62° 15% Sky 70%0g5
  91.  1 AM62° 8% Sky 53%0g5
  92.  1 AM62° 8% Sky 53%0g5
  93.  2 AM61° 8% Sky 53%0
  94.  3 AM61° 8% Sky 53%0
  95.  4 AM60° 8% Sky 53%0
  96.  5 AM60° 8% Sky 53%0g5
  97.  6 AM60° 6% Sky 55%0g5
  98.  7 AM62° 6% Sky 55%0g5
  99.  8 AM65° 6% Sky 55%0g6
  100.  9 AM68° 6% Sky 55%0g6
  101.  10 AM71° 6% Sky 55%5
  102.  11 AM74° 6% Sky 55%5
  103.  12 PM77° 10% Sky 51%5
  104.  1 PM79° 10% Sky 51%5
  105.  2 PM79° 10% Sky 51%5
  106.  3 PM79° 10% Sky 51%5
  107.  4 PM78° 10% Sky 51%5
  108.  5 PM76° 10% Sky 51%5
  109.  6 PM74° 19%0.03"Sky 45%5
  110.  7 PM71° 19%0.03"Sky 45%5
  111.  8 PM68° 19%0.03"Sky 45%5
  112.  9 PM65° 19%0.03"Sky 45%5
  113.  10 PM64° 19%0.03"Sky 45%5
  114.  11 PM64° 19%0.03"Sky 45%5
  115. Mon 11/212 AM64° 28%0.03"Sky 69%5
  116.  1 AM63° 28%0.03"Sky 69%5
  117.  2 AM63° 28%0.03"Sky 69%5
  118.  3 AM62° 28%0.03"Sky 69%5
  119.  4 AM61° 28%0.03"Sky 69%5g10
  120.  5 AM61° 28%0.03"Sky 69%10
  121.  6 AM62° 41%0.04"Sky 74%10g15
  122.  7 AM64° 41%0.04"Sky 74%15
  123.  8 AM67° 41%0.04"Sky 74%15g22
  124.  9 AM70° 41%0.04"Sky 74%15g24
  125.  10 AM73° 41%0.04"Sky 74%15g26
  126.  11 AM76° 41%0.04"Sky 74%15g28
  127.  12 PM78° 54%0.03"Sky 63%15g28
  128.  1 PM80° 54%0.03"Sky 63%15g29
  129.  2 PM80° 54%0.03"Sky 63%15g29
  130.  3 PM80° 54%0.03"Sky 63%15g28
  131.  4 PM79° 54%0.03"Sky 63%15g26
  132.  5 PM77° 54%0.03"Sky 63%15g24
  133.  6 PM74° 42%0.05"Sky 39%15g22
  134.  7 PM71° 42%0.05"Sky 39%15g21
  135.  8 PM68° 42%0.05"Sky 39%15g20
  136.  9 PM65° 42%0.05"Sky 39%15
  137.  10 PM63° 42%0.05"Sky 39%10g17
  138.  11 PM63° 42%0.05"Sky 39%10g16
  139. Tue 11/312 AM62° 36%0.04"Sky 51%10g16
  140.  1 AM61° 36%0.04"Sky 51%10g16
  141.  2 AM61° 36%0.04"Sky 51%10g16
  142.  3 AM60° 36%0.04"Sky 51%10g16
  143.  4 AM59° 36%0.04"Sky 51%15
  144.  5 AM59° 36%0.04"Sky 51%15
  145.  6 AM59° 37%0.10"Sky 63%15g20
  146.  7 AM61° 37%0.10"Sky 63%15g22
  147.  8 AM63° 37%0.10"Sky 63%15g24
  148.  9 AM66° 37%0.10"Sky 63%20g26
  149.  10 AM69° 37%0.10"Sky 63%20g28
  150.  11 AM71° 37%0.10"Sky 63%20g26
  151.  12 PM73° 35%0.02"Sky 53%15g26
  152.  1 PM75° 35%0.02"Sky 53%15g26
  153.  2 PM75° 35%0.02"Sky 53%15g26
  154.  3 PM75° 35%0.02"Sky 53%15g25
  155.  4 PM74° 35%0.02"Sky 53%15g23
  156.  5 PM71° 35%0.02"Sky 53%15g20

Temperature °F · chance of precipitation · amount in inches (T = trace) · sky cover · wind and gusts (g) in mph

NWS hourly forecast updated 10/28/2026, 4:06 AM PT

Radar and satellite

National radar

NEXRAD (last 50 min) and GOES

Latest

Rain and snow totals

Next 3 days, NWS forecast grid

Rain (liquid)
0.05 in
Snow
0.00 in
Ice
0.00 in

Nearby hazards

Texas hazards

Severe storm and flash flood outlooks, expected rain, river flooding and wildfires near this area

  • Severe storm outlook today:No thunderstorm risk area over this locationOutlook map
  • Excessive rainfall outlook (flash flood risk):Could not check the Weather Prediction Center outlook right now.
  • River gauges within 40 miles at or above flood stage: None reported
  • Active wildfires within 50 miles: None reported

Drought

By county

Hunt County, week of 10/20/2026

100% of the county is in moderate drought or worse.

Sun and moon

Local time, center of the area

Sunrise
7:38 AM
Sunset
6:35 PM
Daylight
10 hr 57 min
Moon
Waning Gibbous 94% lit
First light (civil dawn)
7:13 AM
Last light (civil dusk)
7:01 PM
Moonrise
8:18 PM
Moonset
10:30 AM

Normal October weather

Climate

Normal October high 81°, low 54°, precipitation 4.96 in for the month. 1991 to 2020 normals at Greenville Kgvl Radio, 13 mi away.

Other places nearby

Data sources

See something wrong? Request a correction

Frequently asked questions

What is the weather in Commerce, TX right now?
The latest observation from Greenville / Majors was 53°F and clear, reported at 10/28/2026, 6:35 AM CDT.
What is the high temperature today in Commerce, TX?
The National Weather Service forecast for today calls for a high near 83°F. Partly Sunny.
Will it rain in Commerce, TX in the next 24 hours?
The NWS hourly forecast does not show any hour with a 50% or higher chance of precipitation in the next 24 hours.
What is the 10-day forecast for Commerce, TX?
The first 7 days come from the National Weather Service forecast. Days 8 to 10 (Nov 4 to Nov 6) come from the NOAA National Blend of Models, with highs near 72°F. Model guidance this far out often changes.
What time is sunrise and sunset in Commerce, TX today?
Sunrise is about 7:38 AM CDT and sunset is about 6:35 PM CDT (calculated for the center of the area, within a few minutes).
What is the normal October weather in Commerce, TX?
At Greenville Kgvl Radio, the 1991 to 2020 normal high in October is 81°F and the normal low is 54°F.

About this data

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