Centerville, TX Weather

: New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION:

Key messages

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Thursday.

- Isolated showers and storms (20% chance) are possible near and south of I-20 today.

- Higher rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures are expected from late Thursday through Saturday.

Short term

(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A warm/moist advection regime will remain in place today, sending a swath of low stratus and perhaps even some fog into parts of Central Texas later this morning. While zonal flow will prevail aloft devoid of any meaningful ascent, warm/moist advection should be sufficient to result in isolated coverage of showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm mainly south of I-20 during the daytime today. Coverage is likely to only be around 20% or less. Increasing cloud cover may shave a couple degrees off of afternoon highs, but they will still be soundly above normal in the upper 70s and lower 80s. It will also be increasingly and unseasonably humid as surface dewpoints climb into the 60s later today.

The onset of subtle mid-level shortwave ridging should largely eliminate rain chances from this evening into Thursday morning before our next chance for rain begins Thursday afternoon/evening. An unseasonably warm/humid airmass will remain in place while upper troughing deepens across the western CONUS, allowing a strengthening subtropical jet streak to impinge on the area. Widespread mid/high cloud cover should begin streaming into the western half of the area by Thursday afternoon, with showers becoming increasingly likely late in the day. PoPs will be capped at roughly 30% through the daytime before the peak rain chances arrive in the long term forecast period.

Long term

(Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Remnants of a Pacific tropical system will phase with broad troughing already in place heading into Friday, and this will lead to rain chances to end the workweek and begin the weekend. In comparison to previous forecasts, overall rain chances and expected amounts have both decreased slightly, with the trajectory of this system trending increasingly north/northwest of the forecast area. Areas near/west of I-35 will experience scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on an intermittent basis from Thursday night through Saturday as this system gradually ejects into the Central Plains, but coverage of measurable rainfall may be much more scant east of the I-35 corridor. Either way, this system's presence will make for a mostly cloudy and therefore slightly cooler start to the weekend with highs in the mid/upper 70s. An overall lack of instability should keep occurrences of thunder rather scarce, and this system will only really consist of beneficial rainfall for the lucky locations that manage to receive some. Most of this activity should be on a downward trend by Saturday evening, keeping the majority of Halloween evening activities unaffected.

A much more potent storm system is still on track to take hold of the central CONUS by early next week. Following a likely rain- free Sunday, this rapidly deepening system could send a cold front through the forecast area sometime Monday or early Tuesday, which would be accompanied by additional chances for showers and storms. The finer details of this system will become clearer in the next few days, but at a minimum, a decent fall frontal passage is looking increasingly likely during the first half of next week.

Aviation

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

An influx of low-level moisture will send low stratus towards Waco after daybreak this morning, where a Tempo group for MVFR cigs will be advertised. This SCT/BKN deck will continue to lift to 4-5 kft upon spreading farther north into D10 this afternoon. Isolated shower activity is also possible mainly south of the Metroplex airports from mid-morning into the afternoon, and VCSH will be indicated at Waco at this time. A south/southeast wind will prevail through the entire period at speeds around 10 kts.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 63 83 67 / 0 0 10 0 Waco 83 61 83 65 / 10 0 30 0 Paris 82 56 83 62 / 10 0 0 0 Denton 83 59 83 63 / 0 0 10 0 McKinney 82 59 82 63 / 0 0 10 0 Dallas 84 63 84 68 / 0 0 20 0 Terrell 83 58 83 63 / 10 0 20 0 Corsicana 82 60 83 64 / 10 0 30 0 Temple 84 61 84 65 / 0 0 30 0 Mineral Wells 83 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 0

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.