Bowie, TX Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

- Above normal temperatures will continue through the workweek, with occasional low rain chances today west of I-35, and across South and Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday.

- A change in the weather pattern is expected late this week, leading to higher rain chances on Friday and Saturday along with slightly cooler temperatures.

Short term

(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Rain chances have returned to the short term forecast, with several key ingredients already beginning to set up for our next period of unsettled weather. At the CONUS level, a weak trough continues to shift northeast through the Central Plains, breaking down our stout upper-level ridge and flattening it across the Southeastern US. With this breakdown, continued southerly moisture return and zonal flow aloft will help maintain ongoing showers to the west. This activity should stay to the northwest of the CWA, bringing some light showers to Stephens, Young, Jack, and Montague counties before quickly clearing to the north. Coverage will be sparse, as any showers will already be decaying by the time they make it into western North Texas.

Tuesday, as the trough continues to quickly lift northeast, so too will the chances for widespread showers. Weak mid-level subsidence is expected to scatter ongoing mid/high-level cirrus cloud decks from west to east throughout the day, but strong southerly warm air advection should bring widespread low-level clouds and gray conditions back to NTX/CTX. With the continued overcast cloud cover, temperatures should be kept in check and seasonal, with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 60s. Tuesday and Wednesday, short-range guidance is beginning to highlight mid-level moisture return wrapping back across the Gulf, around the surface high pressure currently situated in the Tennessee Valley. With the mid-level moisture and strong southerly advection, there exists a less than 30% for isolated sea breeze-esque convection, primarily for South and Central Texas. While a shower or two may cross into southern portions of the CWA, confidence is too low at this time to indicate more than a slight chance of PoPs for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Long term

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Thursday into Friday, another unsettled pattern shift is expected as a strong subtropical jet begins to overspread the area from the west. After several days of moisture return, this jet will provide broad lift to a very moist warm sector, resulting in widespread showers and cloud cover. With very little CAPE in place, any precip will mainly be wetting rains with a rumble of thunder here and there, rather than a large thunderstorm complex. While there is still much uncertainty with precip totals, the period with the greatest chances for rain will be Friday into Saturday. Those with outdoor plans on Friday and Saturday should keep an eye on the forecast for any adjustments to rain potential. Increased cloud cover and beneficial rain will keep high temps in the mid 70s through the weekend, warming back up into the 80s on Sunday.

Going into the extended period, LREF cluster guidance is consistent in continuing an unsettled pattern, with low daily rain chances and seasonal temperatures going into next week. The main uncertainty to watch for will be the interaction between the aforementioned subtropical jet as it pushes east, and a trough progged to dig south in the Day 6-8 period (Sunday into Tuesday). This interaction, and where the subsequent ascent region is, will be the focus for any rain and thunderstorm chances for NTX/CTX. Otherwise, expect highs in the low 80s to continue, with crisp overnight lows in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR conditions and 5-10 KT southeasterly winds will prevail through the period. Isolated showers and/or virga may approach the D10 late tonight (07-10Z), but the probability of this scenario is too low to mention in the TAFs. Scattered to broken low clouds around 6-8 kft should move in overnight with little to no operational impact.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 82 63 84 / 10 10 0 0 Waco 60 82 61 84 / 10 10 0 0 Paris 57 81 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 58 81 59 84 / 10 10 0 0 McKinney 58 81 59 83 / 0 10 0 0 Dallas 63 83 63 85 / 0 10 0 0 Terrell 59 81 58 84 / 0 10 0 0 Corsicana 60 81 61 83 / 0 10 0 0 Temple 61 83 62 85 / 10 0 0 10 Mineral Wells 59 81 60 83 / 10 20 0 0

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.