Tulare, SD Weather

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This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast South Dakota.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Key messages

- Small chances (20-40%) for light rain Friday night into Saturday, with amounts generally less than 0.25".

- Better chances (60-90%) for more widespread/heavier rainfall Sunday night through Tuesday as low pressure moves into the Plains. Low confidence on the track of this system and rainfall amounts at this time. As of now, rainfall amounts of or exceeding a half inch is 45 to 75%, highest from south central through northeastern SD.

Update

Issued at 942 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Patchy fog this morning has begun to burn off, but minor visibility reductions will remain possible for the next hour or so with any lingering patches of fog. Made some near-term changes to the PoP forecast this morning to better capture ongoing trends in some light showers over central South Dakota. A layer of dry air in place may make it difficult for rain to reach the surface, and any that does will likely be in the form of sprinkles. These light showers are expected to track northeast across the region the rest of this morning through afternoon, maintaining their current strength and outputting little to no rainfall accumulation.

UPDATE Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS.

Discussion

Issued at 102 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

As of 1am, not a cloud in the sky over the region which is leading to a good amount of radiational cooling with current temps in the lower 30s to the lower 40s (coldest over north central SD) and winds calm to light out of the west and northwest. This flow is also helping to keep fog from forming, however, starting to see some patchy fog forming over portions of southeastern SD. ConsShort still tries to indicate slight viz reductions occurring over portions of northeastern SD through the morning but as mentioned this should be very patchy at most and not as thick as yesterday morning.

Mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures are expected today through the day Friday as the region is within a broad ridging pattern and a 1023mb surface high pressure over the area. However, within this zonal to slight southwest flow, weak spotty shortwave activity tracks northeast/east within the ridge as CAMs indicate there could be just enough 700mb lift/moisture to produce spotty showers that would track across the CWA early this morning through the afternoon. NBM shows the potential for this but keeps pops about 10-20%. ECAM of course shows a bit higher pops ranging from 20-40% while REFS also keeps chances low. This is likely due to the dry air at ~800mb to the surface which will make it hard for any rain to reach the surface. So if it does, then mostly likely sprinkles or it will stay as virga. Not enough confidence to use the ECAM (or even a blend at this point) and stuck with the NBM. This may need to be adjusted if in fact we do see precip. Otherwise, this ridge amplifies Friday (and tilts negatively from west central Canada and southwestward) as this high pressure exits the region to the east/northeast. Additional high pressure (and stronger) develops (and merges with the previous one) that extends from south central Canada and southeastward through WI/MN. This will track southeastward through Friday, which will clip the northern and northeastern CWA.

Our next chance of precipitation will be Friday afternoon into Saturday as a large closed mid level low is forecast to hover just off the Pacific Northwest coast and really just spinning in place through Saturday. This results in a negatively tilted shortwave developing on the PVA side of it as it will track north and northeastward from NM/TX into the central plains. In combination with a surface warm front also lifting northward, rain showers will track north/northeast and entering south central SD ~late Friday afternoon with the light rain expanding across the CWA before exiting the northeastern CWA late Saturday morning/midday. This looks to be a weak system therefore NBM pops range from 20-50%, highest over south central through east central SD with pops diminishing further north you in the CWA. Probability of QPF of 0.10" or more is 20 to 40% east of the Missouri River with the highest pops over east central SD.

As this large wave moves onshore Sunday and tracks east over the Intermountain west, a Colorado low (with an inverted trough extending northward through the Northern Rockies) develops late Sunday/early Monday and will track eastward/northeast (becoming quite elongated) through early next week. As of now ENS is further northwest with the position of the low than GEFS by 06Z Monday with GEFS being more southerly with the track than ENS along with GEFS indicating a few millibars stronger with the low. So high confidence on this setup but low confidence on exact track/strength which leads to low confidence on QPF amounts and where the highest amounts will be at this time. Latest NBM has widespread 60-90% pops moving in early Monday with the rain tracking eastward with pops diminishing west to east across the CWA ~Tuesday night or early Wednesday (model depending). As of now the bulk of the rain (and highest pops) looks to fall Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Probability of a half inch of rain 12Z Monday-12Z Tuesday is 30-50% (lowest north central SD) per grand ensemble mean (ENS/GEFS/GEPS) with ENS being the most aggressive on this QPF chance while GEFS is less aggressive (give more of a southerly track for now). NBM is 40-75%. Again low confidence in exact totals but all models indicate the bulk of the precip will be from south central through NESD/MN. This system will have moisture to work with as higher PWAT values of 0.75 to 1" will expand northward on the warm side of the low with values running 3 to 4 standard deviation above climo per NAEFS. It is also interesting to note that EC EFI is already highlighting values of 0.6 to 0.8 for QPF with a shift of tails of 1 for Monday. So still kind of on the low side meaning most members are near the reforecast climatology and the "boom" potential is low for now. However, this is several days out. As mentioned, Ptype is expected to remain as rain as surface to 850mb are forecast to stay above freezing. Otherwise high pressure moves in behind it.

Aviation

Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will generally remain the prevailing conditions for all terminals through the majority of this forecast period. The one exception is early this morning at KATY where localized fog has developed dropping vsbys down to IFR to at times LIFR. This will be short lived as conditions should improve by mid morning. Southeast wind gusts between 20-25 kts are still expected this afternoon at KPIR/KMBG.

Watches, warnings and advisories

SD: None. MN: None.