Thunderbird Colony, SD Weather

Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts- Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant- Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo- 304 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 /204 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast South Dakota.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Key messages

- Scattered rain showers move over the area this evening into Saturday. Rain rates are generally expected to be light, but the strongest showers may put out around a tenth of an inch of rain, particularly over northeastern South Dakota.

- More widespread, heavier rainfall is expected Monday through Tuesday as a low pressure center moves into the Pains. While there is low confidence in amounts at this time, the chance to see an inch of rain ranges from 50 to 80 percent, increasing from west to east across the forecast area.

- Winds turn northwesterly and increase on the back side of the low pressure center Monday afternoon. Wind gusts upwards of 45 miles per hour will be possible along and west of the Missouri River.

Discussion

Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Scattered rain showers move into the area later this evening and into tonight. Coverage begins over central South Dakota before expanding to the rest of the forecast area during the overnight period. Generally expecting rain rates to remain fairly light overall, but under the strongest showers, around a tenth of an inch may fall in total (roughly a 25-45% chance over parts of northeastern South Dakota).

With an upper-level ridge overhead, above normal temperatures can be expected for the next couple of days. Highs in the 50s to low 60s are about 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Low temperatures are also expected to stay well above freezing through the weekend. The upper-level pattern will shift at the start of next week, and an upper-level trough will move overhead. This will push temperatures back down closer to normal (highs in the low 50s to upper 40s) for mid to late next week, as well as bring back chances for freezing temperatures during the overnights.

With the coming pattern change, a Colorado Low is set to move into the region early next week, bringing another round of rainfall to the region. Rainfall totals over the last 24 hours of model runs have continued to trend upwards. The footprint of the area of heaviest rainfall has also shifted, now located firmly over northeastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. In that area, ensemble median rainfall totals through Wednesday morning are up to 2". While the GEFS and NBM have their highest rainfall totals over parts of the Aberdeen forecast area, the Euro ensemble favors a more easterly track of the low, which would lead to a slight decrease in the precipitation potential should that scenario pan out (medians around 1.5"). In either scenario, rainfall totals decrease moving to the west. As the low pressure center moves in and tracks north, winds will turn northwesterly and increase thanks to the tightening pressure gradient. The strongest gusts are expected along and west of the Missouri River Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, where gusts have a 30-60% chance to hit Wind Advisory criteria of 45 miles per hour or higher.

Aviation

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Main aviation concern for this forecast will be rain showers moving into the area this evening into tonight. Coverage of these showers will begin over central South Dakota this evening, before spreading to the rest of the forecast area overnight tonight. With this showers will come a MVFR to IFR cloud deck, and areas under the heaviest showers may even see LIFR ceilings. Given that coverage of these showers is expected to be scattered at best, confidence remains somewhat low on the rain potential directly at the TAF sites. Therefore have kept the showers in PROB30 groupings for the time being. Showers will move out of the forecast area Saturday morning, but flight category reductions from the low cloud deck will continue through the duration of the TAF period.

Watches, warnings and advisories

SD: None. MN: None.