Centenary, SC Weather

What has changed

Updated wwa section for high rip current risk Thursday and for 00z aviation discussion.

Key messages

- 1) Dry high pressure to the north will produce minor coastal flooding and, at times, adverse marine and surf conditions this week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry high pressure to the north will produce minor coastal flooding and, at times, adverse marine and surf conditions this week.

Breezy northeast winds will continue through the remainder of this afternoon, as reinforcing high pressure builds down the coast through Thursday. The likelihood for strong, dangerous rip currents will remain elevated through the end of the week, along with the potential for strong longshore currents at east- facing beaches. For marine implications, see the Marine section below.

Coastal Flooding: High astronomical tides combined with prolonged, strong northeast flow will push water levels along the coast over minor flooding thresholds, especially with the late morning/midday high tides. No Coastal Flood Advisories in effect at this time, but more advisories will likely be needed to cover the minor coastal flooding expected Thursday.

As far as sensible weather goes, ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will keep the region dry, but breezy. Increased low- level moisture tonight and Thursday will produce cloud cover, and possibly a few sprinkles, but the shallow nature of the moisture and lack of forcing will prevent measurable rain. Temperatures gradually rise through the work week before settling back to near normal over the weekend. A storm system affecting the Southern Plains late in the week may eventually bring increased rain chances by Sunday and into early next week.

Aviation

Most terminals VFR attm though ILM has intermittent MVFR CIGS. Expect CIGS at all terminals to fall to about 1 KFT well after midnight. After sunrise, VFR should return all areas by about mid morning. Light n-ne flow is expected.

Extended Outlook: Mostly VFR expected through at least Sunday morning, sans the possible fog or low stratus each morning. More widespread restrictions possible Sunday afternoon through Monday as the next appreciable rain chances come in.

Marine

Through Monday: Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 12 AM Friday (that's Thursday night into Friday morning) for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm. NE winds continue throughout the entire forecast period, with gradient winds reaching a peak this afternoon (gusts up to a strong breeze). Throughout the advisory, seas range from 3-6 ft along the coastal waters out 20 nm, up to 7 ft along the offshore waters out 60 nm. After the advisory, winds improve slightly towards a moderate to fresh breeze Friday, ramping back up to a more solid fresh breeze Saturday through Monday. Along a similar timeline, seas briefly improve towards 2-4 ft over the waters out 20 nm, up to 5 ft out 60 nm Friday and Friday night. Seas then rapidly kick back up towards advisory conditions Saturday through Monday.

Watches, warnings and advisories

NC: High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for NCZ108. SC: None. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Thursday night for AMZ250-252-254-256.