Arkwright, SC Weather

What has changed

No major changes to the forecast thinking through Friday. Model guidance continues to trend drier for Sunday into early next week.

Key messages

1. Dry through at least Saturday. Trending drier Sunday through Tuesday so confidence on rain returning is now very low. Temperatures remain mostly above normal, with the exception of Sunday.

Discussion

Key message 1: Dry through at least Saturday. Trending drier Sunday through Tuesday so confidence on rain returning is now very low. Temperatures remain mostly above normal, with the exception of Sunday.

Quasi-zonal flow aloft with weak high pressure at the surface keeps dry weather in place through the rest of the workweek. Temperatures are expected to remain 6-12 degrees above normal, with the warmest day being Friday. A southern stream shortwave trough develops over the Southern Plains Thursday and Friday before propagating towards the mid-MS Valley and Midwest by the upcoming weekend. A backdoor front from the north slips across the CWA on Saturday and will set the stage for CAD as a strong surface high (~1030mb) shifts from south-central Canada and sets up shop over the northeastern CONUS by Saturday. Most of the guidance has now shifted the shortwave further north and west, while lacking a good moisture transport from the Gulf or Atlantic ahead of the next frontal system. Deterministic models and associated ensemble members have lower QPF amounts compared to the past few runs. With the better forcing lifting north of the area and lack of available moisture, most of any precip that develops will likely be in the result of weak isentropic lift. Timing overall has come in later, with the best PoPs expected to be on Sunday into the first half of Monday. Current forecast of chance PoPs looks good, but wouldn't be surprised to see this continue a downward trend as each successive model run comes in drier. With CAD in place on Sunday, temperatures should trend to be at or slightly below normal, with a very gradual rebound Monday and Tuesday as the lingering in-situ wedge keeps temperatures near normal. Another shot of precip may develop by midweek next week as guidance continue to hint at a strong closed upper/mid low over the central CONUS that eventually shifts east. Details are way too far out for any specifics and guidance is all over the place per usual, but will need to closely monitor over the next week or so.

Aviation

At KCLT and elsewhere: Easterly flow has resulted in a SCT-BKN cloud layer at low VFR over most of the area, with bases at MVFR level near the ridges just south and east of KAVL. Some lowering of these clouds should occur through dawn, with MVFR becoming likely KAVL and KHKY prior to then; the stratus appear more likely to cause restrictions than radiation fog. Can't rule out IFR at those sites or at KCLT, the latter appearing somewhat more likely at or just after daybreak. Elsewhere think cigs are more likely to remain VFR. Any low clouds or restrictions should slowly lift/scatter through the first few hrs of the day, with SCT diurnal cu possible in the aftn. Winds will be light and mainly N eaerly this morning, becoming more NE during the day except at KAVL. Though the northerly flow regime tonight is unfavorable for stratus to advect over KCLT, can't rule out radiation fog/stratus by daybreak Friday, so mention FEW005 for now.

Outlook: Dry and VFR through at least Saturday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus may develop each morning. Rain and associated restrictions may return starting Sunday but confidence is now very low with global weather models trending drier Sunday through Tuesday.

Watches, warnings and advisories

GA: None. NC: None. SC: None.