Búfalo, PR Weather

: New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST:

Key messages

Issued at 227 AM AST Thu Oct 29 2026

* Another round of showers is expected this afternoon for the interior and western Puerto Rico, and portions of the San Juan metro area. Urban and small stream flooding may develop.

* Hot conditions will continue for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Users should look for shade and stay hydrated.

* Exceptionally high tides will continue today, with potential coastal flooding for vulnerable areas. The period of high tide is around noon.

* Unsettled weather conditions may develop on Saturday and Sunday. Users should stay tuned for further updates today and tomorrow.

.Short Term(Today through Saturday): Issued at 227 AM AST Thu Oct 29 2026

A few showers moved into the vicinity of the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico during the early morning hours. Otherwise, skies were mostly clear, except across western Puerto Rico. Temperatures cooled down to the low 80s in the Virgin Islands, the upper 70s or low 80s across coastal areas in Puerto Rico, and into the 60s for the Cordillera Central.

A low pressure area at the upper levels is currently located just to the southeast of Puerto Rico, while high pressure at all levels just to northeast of the islands maintain a southeasterly wind flow. The steering flow will stay from this direction, at speeds of 9 to 12 knots through at least Saturday. In the most recent satellite-derived precipitable water imagery, plenty of moisture is still evident over Hispaniola. Some of this moisture is still reaching the local islands, with a slot of drier air just east of the Lesser Antilles. Today, decent lapse rates, above normal moisture and diurnal heating should trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms for the interior and west of Puerto Rico. Lines of showers could also reach the San Juan metropolitan area. In these areas, the risk of urban and small stream flooding will be medium, while frequent lightning is also anticipated. Additional showers may also reach the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, where flooding is not a concern at this time.Tomorrow, that slot of dry air will move in, limiting the potential for rain activity.

There could be some changes in the forecast for Saturday, especially late in the day. A deepening trough over the western Caribbean will pull moisture into the region. Conditions aloft could be favorable for an increase in showers and thunderstorms, especially late in the day and in the nighttime. The confidence in the forecast for this period is low at this time, since there are some discrepancies in the global models regarding this rain event. The users should stay tuned for any changes introduced in the forecast.

Temperatures will remain warmer than normal, with a level of heat that primarily affects individuals extremely sensitive, especially when outdoors without effective cooling or adequate hydration.

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday): Issued at 227 AM AST Thu Oct 29 2026

Current model guidance suggests a humid pattern throughout the long term period, favoring unsettled weather conditions and an increased potential for rainfall. Precipitable water (PWAT) values are expected to remain at or above 2 inches beginning Sunday, above normal values based on November climatology (75th percentile). Meanwhile, relative humidity in the 850 to 700 mb layer is expected to remain near seasonal levels, while relative humidity in the 700 to 500 mb layer is forecast to remain above normal.

At the surface, high pressure over the Atlantic will promote easterly to northeasterly winds at the start of the period, gradually becoming southeasterly to southerly early next week. Aloft, an upper level trough is expected to remain primarily west of the region through the beginning of the period. However, some uncertainty remains, as current model guidance suggests that the trough will gradually move away from the region early next week. The upper-level trough, along with embedded shortwave troughs, will support mid-level temperatures near -6C through at least Monday, potentially favoring cloud development and deeper convection across the region. From Tuesday onward, guidance indicates a gradual warming of mid-level temperatures, which could become less favorable for deeper convection. By midweek, winds are expected to become very light, potentially resulting in slow moving showers and increasing the risk of localized flooding. However, confidence in the overall rainfall coverage and intensity remains limited, as upper level dynamics may become less favorable. Afternoon convection will also depend on cloud cover and the amount of daytime heating.

Overall, showers are expected during the overnight and morning hours each day, particularly across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern to southeastern Puerto Rico. During the afternoon, convection is expected to develop across the interior, western, and northwestern portions of Puerto Rico, with localized showers and streamers also developing downwind of El Yunque and across the local islands on most days. Periods of heavy rainfall could lead to urban and small stream flooding. In addition, thunderstorms may produce frequent lightning and gusty winds. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates as model guidance becomes more consistent.

At this time, upper level dynamics appear more favorable for enhanced convection on Sunday, at the beginning of the period. Later in the week a mid-level ridge could help inhibit development. But lighter winds could favor localized rainfall accumulation due to the slow movement of showers. Nevertheless, cloud cover will remain an important factor in determining the extent and intensity of afternoon convection. Forecast uncertainty remains, as global models continue to show some disagreement regarding the evolution of the upper level pattern.&&

Aviation

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 227 AM AST Thu Oct 29 2026

SHRA and TSRA expected this afternoon (17-22Z) for the Cordillera Central, and the vicinity of TJBQ and TJSJ. Periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings can be expected. Passing SHRA expected for the vicinity of USVI, but with little to no impact for terminals. Winds will persist from SE at 9-12 kts, with stronger gusts and sea breeze variations from 14-22Z.

Marine

Issued at 227 AM AST Thu Oct 29 2026

A surface high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will maintain moderate east to southeasterly winds across the regional waters over the next few days. The long-period northerly swell that has been affecting the local waters, will continue to gradually subside today. Scattered showers and isolated t-storms will continue to affect areas of the local waters and passages, particularly over the waters near the northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico, potentially producing brief periods of reduced visibility, locally gusty winds, and rougher seas. &&

Beach forecast

Issued at 227 AM AST Thu Oct 29 2026

A high risk of rip currents (rip currents are likely in the surf zone) will be in effect through 1 PM AST this afternoon along the north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra, becoming moderate thereafter as the northerly swell energy continues to decrease. Up to a moderate risk (rip currents are possible in the surf zone) will persist across the USVI. Additionally, spring tides, which contributed to elevated water levels during the past few days, are expected to persist through at least tomorrow, Friday. Consequently, even as the northerly swell subsides, ongoing coastal effects may be heightened at high tide, potentially resulting in localized flooding in susceptible, low- lying shorelines. Beachgoers are strongly urged to stay out of the water at beaches under a high risk of rip currents. Always observe posted warning signs, flags, and guidance provided by local authorities and lifeguards. Up to a moderate risk of rip currents is expected to persist Friday and into the weekend.

Watches, warnings and advisories

PR: High Rip Current Risk until 1 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001- 002-005-008-010-012.

VI: None. AM: None.