Redbird Smith, OK Weather

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma.

Day one

This Afternoon and Tonight.

DISCUSSION: Low rain chances develop overnight tonight mainly along and west of a Bartlesville to Okmulgee to Hugo line as a weak disturbance moves into the region. Hazardous weather is not expected through tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT: Spotter Activation Not Expected.

Days two through seven

Friday through Wednesday. FRIDAY: No Hazards. SATURDAY: No Hazards. SUNDAY: Thunderstorm Potential. MONDAY AND TUESDAY: Thunderstorm Potential: High Wind Potential: Heavy Rain Potential. WEDNESDAY: No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION: Rain chances continue Friday morning into early afternoon for parts of northeast Oklahoma before the disturbance exits. At this time, thunder potential is less than 10 percent Friday.

There is a low chance for thunderstorms across far southeast Oklahoma into west- central Arkansas Saturday afternoon and evening in association with a passing wave aloft. After a quiet day on Sunday, thunderstorm chances will return Sunday night mainly to northeast Oklahoma with the approach of a strong storm system.

A strong storm system is expected to organize over the Plains early next week. Moisture return ahead of a strong area of low pressure and associated cold front will bring potential for thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, some of which could be strong to severe. A widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall event is expected. The flood threat is not zero, but it will be limited by the recent drought conditions over the area. Strong winds can be expected at times as the low pressure tightens the gradient over the region, both ahead of and behind the cold front.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

Updated at 125 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Well above average high temperatures and predominantly dry weather will continue Thursday.

- Rain chances increase beginning early Friday morning through much of Saturday.

- The potential for an impactful storm system early next week continues to increase, but specifics remain uncertain.

Short term

(Through Friday ) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Weak mid level disturbance/vort max across southern Texas will move north/northeast this afternoon and spread high clouds across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. At the same time, southerly low level flow will continue to aid 60+ deg dewpoints and temperatures warming into the low 80s over the majority of the CWA. This will likely be the warmest day of the seven day forecast period.

Overnight tonight, the vort max is expected to lift into the region and across eastern Oklahoma Friday. Low rain chances develop over parts of southeast Oklahoma tonight and spread northward into parts of northeast Oklahoma Friday morning. The greater potential for rain is generally along and west of a Bartlesville to Hugo line. Farther east: a low/mid level layer of drier air should limit the eastward extent of the precip potential.

Highest rain chances exist during the morning through early afternoon hours mainly along and west of Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma as the vort max lifts through and exits the region. During the afternoon hours, a slight chance of lingering showers remains though the majority should be exiting by 21z. Overall, conditions look to be mainly rain showers as instability and mid level lapse rates are forecast to be marginal. Thus, will keep thunder probs at and below 10 percent.

Temperatures tonight remain on the warm side with increasing cloud cover and are anticipated to be cooler Friday as highs reach into the 70s.

Long term

(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Additional rain chances move back into the CWA Friday night and Saturday with the parent mid level shortwave progged to push east/northeast over the region. At this time, the greater rain chances are forecast for southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas through the day Saturday, and then over northwest Arkansas into Saturday night before the shortwave departs. Timing wise, rain chances begin to taper off Saturday afternoon/evening from west to east and exit early Sunday evening. Thunder probs with the shortwave are slightly higher, over southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas with the base of the shortwave. For now will carry slight chance of thunder for far southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas Saturday afternoon/evening. Rainfall amounts through Saturday night are forecast to be generally less than a half inch.

Cloud cover holds on over the region Sunday in the wake of the departing shortwave. Also Sunday/Sunday night, mid/upper heights begin to rise with an increase in southerly low level flow. In response, Sunday afternoon temperatures in the 70s are forecast, while temperatures remain warm with the breezy southerly winds Sunday night. These winds continue to increase during the day Monday ahead of a stronger low pressure system and associated cold front approaching from the west.

An area of low pressure off the Pacific northwest coast is progged to drop east-southeast over the weekend and merge with a secondary low moving into the CONUS within the subtropical jet. The new parent low pressure system approaches the CWA Monday and moves into the region Monday night and Tuesday. Shower and also thunderstorm chances begin to increase Monday, and become more likely Monday night/Tuesday as the cold front makes its way through the CWA. Increasing instability as well as a greater plume of moisture spreading over the CWA ahead of the front will aid in at least limited potential for strong/severe storms. Also, shear vectors look to align along the front as it moves through which will also aid in a heavy rain threat. Details will continue to evolve as we approach the event, though the potential for impacts has increased.

The low pressure system looks to exit during the middle of next week, though differences remain with the potential for another disturbance to drop into the region on the backside of the exiting mid/upper level trof axis. However, one thing to note is behind the cold front, more seasonal temperatures for early November could move into the region for the second half of next week.

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected today and tonight with scattered clouds in the 5-8 kft range and increasing high clouds. Ceilings will develop and lower to 4-7 kft Friday morning with scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms (10-20 percent chance, too low to include in the TAFs). Storm activity will focus across eastern OK, with only a small chance of precipitation reaching to Arkansas. Winds will remain out of the south, slightly stronger in the day, but gusts remaining below 15 kts.

Preliminary point temps/pops

TUL 64 75 58 71 / 10 40 20 40 FSM 61 77 60 72 / 0 10 30 70 MLC 63 75 57 71 / 20 10 30 50 BVO 61 74 54 71 / 10 50 20 30 FYV 58 76 55 70 / 0 0 20 50 BYV 60 76 57 69 / 0 0 10 50 MKO 63 74 57 71 / 10 10 30 50 MIO 62 76 57 69 / 0 20 20 50 F10 63 74 57 71 / 20 20 30 50 HHW 65 76 59 72 / 10 10 30 70

Watches, warnings and advisories

OK: None. AR: None.