Jay, OK Weather

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma.

Day one

Today and Tonight.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER. RISK: Limited. AREA: Primarily along and north of Interstate 44 in northeast Oklahoma. ONSET: Midday.

DISCUSSION:

South winds will gust to around 25 mph this afternoon across northeast Oklahoma. The strong winds, dry and warm conditions will yield limited fire spread potential mainly along and north of Interstate 44 this afternoon.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT: Spotter Activation Not Expected.

Days two through seven

Thursday through Tuesday. THURSDAY and FRIDAY: No Hazards. SATURDAY and SUNDAY: Thunderstorm Potential. MONDAY: Thunderstorm: High Wind: Heavy Rain Potential. TUESDAY: High Wind: Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION:

A series of upper disturbances will lift northeast over the region Friday on into the weekend, bringing periods of unsettled weather. There will be low chances for thunderstorms with this activity.

A strong upper storm system is expected to organize over the Plains early next week. Moisture return ahead of a strong area of low pressure and associated cold front will bring potential for thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday, some of which could be strong to severe. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with these storms as well, depending on the eastward progression of the storm system. Strong winds can be expected at times as the low pressure tightens the gradient over the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

Updated at 553 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Above average high temperatures and predominantly dry weather will continue through Thursday.

- Rain chances increase late Thursday night through Saturday.

- Potential for stronger storm system early next week but uncertainty remains high.

Short term

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Broad southwesterly flow aloft remains established across the Southern Plains, ahead of an amplifying western CONUS trough. A subtle shortwave trough overnight tonight may aid in a deeper plume of moisture that may spread across portions of northeast Oklahoma before or around sunrise Wednesday. A few light rain showers may be squeezed out from this passing wave, but overall rain chances and impacts remain very low at this time.

At the surface, a tightening pressure gradient from high pressure over the Southeast CONUS and deepening lee cyclogenesis along the High Plains will result in an increased bump in southerly winds through the daytime on Wednesday. Expect sustained wind speeds around 10-15 mph, with gusts around 25 mph. This slight increase in winds will cause limited grassland fire spread rates through the afternoon, especially north of I-40 where winds will be breeziest. Afternoon high temperatures will climb to near 80F or lower 80s underneath partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.

Mejia

Long term

(Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Above-average high temperatures and predominantly dry conditions will remain the primary story through Thursday beneath broad southwesterly flow aloft. Highs on Thursday will generally top out in the lower to middle 80s, running about 15 degrees above seasonal normals.

Rain chances will begin to increase from west to east late Thursday night into Friday as an initial shortwave disturbance lifts northeast out of west Texas. Multi-model guidance, along with global ensemble means, and the NBM depict modest moisture return ahead of this shortwave. Scattered showers are expected to spread eastward, initially across east-central Oklahoma during the daytime Friday, before spreading into far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas by Friday evening/night. The NBM continues to carry the highest chances of PoPs (40-70%) Saturday morning and into the early afternoon, before significantly decreasing by Saturday evening. Severe weather potential remains unlikely, given very marginal instability. In fact, thunder will be hard to come by through at least the upcoming weekend. Rainfall amounts should mainly stay below one inch through the weekend.

A brief lull in precipitation coverage is anticipated Sunday into Sunday night as the lead wave departs into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and shortwave ridging moves across the area. By Sunday night and into Monday morning, a potentially stronger, more amplified synoptic trough/cut-off low pushes into the central CONUS. While deterministic runs and other guidance continue to show considerable run-to-run spread regarding the exact timing, depth, and trajectory of this secondary upper-level disturbance, confidence is increasing in renewed, more widespread shower and thunderstorm chances ahead of an associated surface cold front early next week (Monday into Tuesday timeframe). Given high model/ensemble variance, have stayed close to NBM baseline PoPs (40-70%) for Monday into Tuesday. A transition to cooler, more seasonable temperatures is expected behind the front toward the end of the forecast period.

Mejia

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 556 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Broken mid cloud this morning across NE OK will scatter out by midday. There may be a few cu during the afternoon in the moisture return down south at KMLC. Aside from this, clear skies are expected. South winds will pick by mid to late morning, with gusts near 20 kts at the NE OK sites. Winds will subside again this evening.

Lacy

Preliminary point temps/pops

TUL 83 61 85 62 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 85 58 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 82 60 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 82 57 84 57 / 10 0 0 10 FYV 80 54 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 80 59 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 82 59 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 80 59 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 F10 82 60 84 61 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 82 61 84 62 / 0 0 0 0

Watches, warnings and advisories

OK: None. AR: None.