Hemlock, OH Weather

What has changed

The chance for rain late Sunday into early next week has been lowered, with now just isolated showers or sprinkles expected across far western West Virginia, northeast Kentucky, and portions of southeast Ohio. 18Z Aviation forecast discussion update.

Key messages

1) Mostly dry through the weekend, then precipitation chances return to the area during the new work week, primarily Wednesday onward.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1:

A weak surface cold front has slipped south of the CWA today, with associated low/mid cloud cover across the higher terrain having dissipated, leading to widespread sunshine this afternoon amid temperatures a few degrees cooler than that of yesterday. Lows tonight will generally range from the low/mid 30s across the mountains, while mid 30s (typical northern valley cold spots) to mid 40s across the lowlands. Some frost is expected across the mountains, and potentially the northern lowlands, but would be rather isolated and not necessitate a headline. Some patchy dense river valley fog is expected in the 'typical' locations towards dawn.

Dry weather then continues through much of the weekend as surface high pressure traverses north of the area, with temperatures remaining in general ~ 5-10 degrees above normal, but amid a decent amount of upper-level cloud cover. A weak, traversing upper wave will bring the potential for showers Sunday night into Monday, but overall, dry low-levels and downsloping flow will result in showers (sprinkles) being of the isolated variety, primarily confined to far western West Virginia, northeast Kentucky, and portions of southeast Ohio.

Temperatures will warm back into the low/mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday given strengthening return flow ahead of the next stronger disturbance approaching from the central CONUS. This disturbance and associated frontal boundary will bring a much higher potential for the first area-wide rainfall in over two weeks to the region beginning later Wednesday and especially on Thursday.

Aviation

VFR conditions are expected to dominate this TAF period (until 18Z Saturday), with the only exception being due to some river valley steam fog late tonight. Restrictions are progged at KEKN, but could also occur at CKB/PKB. SCT to BKN high-level clouds will begin moving overhead tonight and through the day on Saturday.

Light north to east-northeast flow is generally expected through the TAF period, transitioning to southeast Saturday morning in/near the higher terrain. Most sites go calm tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY:

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog, otherwise high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions w/ fog overnight may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY: IFR restrictions could be possible in showers late Wednesday onward.

Watches, warnings and advisories

WV: None. OH: None. KY: None. VA: None.