Smithtown, NY Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS warning criteria.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria.

What has changed

Frost Advisory is in effect for coastal portions of southeast CT tonight into Wednesday morning.

Coastal Flood Statement issued for the early afternoon high tide cycle for Fairfield county.

Key messages

1) High pressure will remain the dominant player through the weekend.

2) Water levels may touch or come close to minor coastal flood benchmarks across Lower NY Harbor, southern Nassau, and southern Fairfield during the morning/afternoon high tide cycle today and Wednesday.

Key message 1

A benign stretch of weather will continue through the upcoming weekend with high pressure largely in control. On the heels of a cold frontal passage, high pressure north of the Great Lakes builds southeast today and into the Northeast tonight. The high then works offshore Wednesday and gives way to another approaching cold front, which passes through dry on Friday. Another strong high pressure system builds across the area for the weekend.

Outside of some of high level clouds on Wednesday associated with a shortwave moving through the ridge, expect mostly sunny days and clear nights. The coldest night of the week looks to be tonight into Wednesday morning with the best chance for widespread frost formation across coastal southeast CT (Middlesex and New London counties), where the growing season continues. The growing season has already ended across the interior where frost is likely. Thus, a Frost Advisory will only be issued for coastal southeast CT. It is possible for some expansion later today if the frost coverage increases for the coastal zones.

Highs today are forecast to be in the upper 50s to lowers 60s, gradually warming Wednesday through Friday. Widespread 70s are forecast by Friday ahead of the next cold front. Lows tonight will be in the 30s to around 40 outside of the NYC metro, where it will be in the 40s to around 50. Subsequent mornings will warm as well, with readings in the upper 40s to the lower and mid 50s. Friday's highs and lows will be on the order of 10 to possibly 15 degrees above normal. Values are short of records.

Behind the cold front, cooler weather is on tap for the weekend, but remaining dry.

Key message 2

Coastal Flood Statement in effect for coastal Fairfield county for this afternoon's high tide cycle.

Localized minor coastal flooding remains possible for portions of Lower NY Harbor, southern Nassau, and southern Fairfield during the morning/afternoon high tides today and Wednesday. The latest guidance supports the best chance of occurrence along the SW CT coast this afternoon. Despite high pressure over the area during this timeframe, astronomically high tides (King Tide) and an easterly swell are producing above normal water levels. In many cases, less than foot is needed to reach minor coastal flood benchmark.

Aviation

High pressure builds from the north and west through the TAF period.

VFR.

Wind speeds will be around 7-10 kts through most the TAF period. Wind direction will generally remain out of the N-NE for much of today. Winds may become more easterly mid to late afternoon, especially at the far eastern terminals. Winds become light and variable late this evening and continuing through the TAF period.

: NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty:

No amendments expected.

Outlook for 12z wednesday through saturday

Wednesday-Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

Marine

Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the week with high pressure in control and a relatively weak pressure gradient.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CT: Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ011-012. NY: None. NJ: None. MARINE: None.