Phoenicia, NY Weather

What has changed

Continued trend of lowering afternoon dewpoints for Saturday and Sunday. Also increased cloud coverage through early tonight for areas near and north of I-90 due to some lake effect clouds. Otherwise, no significant changes with this update.

Key messages

1) There remains an elevated risk for fire spread this afternoon for areas within and immediately adjacent to the Hudson River Valley, western MA and northwest CT due to dry fuels combined with gusty winds and lowering relative humidity.

2) Dry weather is expected this weekend through at least the middle of next week, with increasing chances for rain later in the week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1:

In the wake of the cold frontal passage, it will remain breezy through sunset with west to northwest winds gusting 25-35 mph, perhaps even a bit stronger across portions of the Capital Region and Berkshires. Dewpoints will continue to drop into the 30s, allowing RH values to fall to between 40 and 50 percent in much of the Hudson River Valley and lower elevations across the Berkshires and NW CT, with a few locally lower values possible across portions of the mid Hudson Valley later this afternoon. Per prior collaboration with NYS/New England DEC's/DEP's and surrounding WFO's, given the drying fuels across these areas with little or no rainfall for nearly 2 weeks, a Special Weather Statement has been issued through this afternoon for an elevated risk of fire spread.

Otherwise, temperatures will hold steady or slowly fall through the remainder of this afternoon into/through the 50s, except 40s for higher elevations across the southern Adirondacks and southern VT. Temps across portions of the mid Hudson Valley/NW CT have surged into the mid/upper 60s, but will gradually fall back through the lower 60s and upper 50s by late afternoon. A few passing showers will remain possible across some higher terrain areas of the SW Adirondacks through sunset.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

Outside of a few evening showers/sprinkles across portions of the SW Adirondacks, generally dry conditions are expected through the weekend and into the middle of next week. Chances for rain increase later next week ahead of an approaching frontal system and upper level trough, however there remains uncertainty regarding whether upper level systems phase and result in a widespread soaking rain, or the systems remain separate, allowing for a more limited chance for showers.

Aviation

Through 18z Saturday: Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals, and expected to remain VFR through the duration of the TAF period. SCT to BKN mid-level clouds (4000-5000 ft at ALB/GFL/POU and 3500 ft at PSF) expected through the afternoon into the evening. Clouds should gradually dissipate overnight into tomorrow morning with skies becoming mainly clear. W/NW winds this afternoon will be 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt. Gusts diminish after sunset, but winds remain at 5-10 kt through most of the night into tomorrow morning from the NW, but sustained winds around 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt redevelop at PSF and possibly POU after sunrise tomorrow morning through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook:

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

Watches, warnings and advisories

CT: None. NY: None. MA: None. VT: None.