Antwerp, NY Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New York.

Day one

Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

What has changed

No significant forecast changes with this issuance.

Key messages

1) Showers tonight, cooler and dry on Friday in the wake of the cold front.

2) Another extended period of dry weather and above average temperatures this weekend through early next week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers tonight, cooler and dry on Friday in the wake of the cold front.

A low amplitude mid level trough will advance east across Quebec tonight, with an associated surface cold front moving southeast across the eastern Great Lakes this evening. Large scale forcing is weak, but a focused ribbon of low level convergence along the front and a narrow axis of sufficient moisture will support a band of showers moving from northwest to southeast across the area through the first half of tonight. The fast moving nature of the system will keep rainfall amounts less than 0.25" in most areas, and less than 0.10" across the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes as the southwesterly boundary layer flow downslopes off the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier. Rain will quickly end from northwest to southeast after midnight following the cold frontal passage.

Cool northwest flow aloft and associated upslope flow and shallow lake induced instability will support plenty of cloud cover through at least midday Friday, with only partial/gradual clearing in the afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler than the past few days but very close to average for the end of October.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Another extended period of dry weather and above average temperatures this weekend through early next week.

A mid/upper level ridge will quickly build back into the central and eastern CONUS this weekend and persist through early next week as a deep trough moves slowly east from the Rockies. Surface high pressure will settle over the eastern Great Lakes Saturday, then gradually drift off the southern New England coast Sunday through Monday. This feature will maintain dry weather across the eastern Great Lakes with temperatures trending above average.

A more active pattern may develop by the middle to end of next week as a deep trough moves slowly east across the CONUS, possibly evolving into a closed low as it reaches the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. There is considerable spread in ensemble members and deterministic model runs with the timing of this system, but once it arrives it will likely bring a wetter pattern that lasts for at least a few days later next week.

Aviation

A cold font will cross the eastern Great Lakes from northwest to southeast this evening, with a broken band of showers crossing the region. The showers will only last for a few hours at any given location, but a few brief moderate showers may drop VSBY to MVFR for a short period of time. The showers will quickly end from northwest to southeast overnight following the cold frontal passage.

Areas of MVFR CIGS will develop overnight and last through the first half of Friday as a shallow layer of low level moisture becomes trapped beneath the inversion behind the cold front. Northwest upslope flow and lake effect clouds will help to maintain fairly widespread low stratus through Friday morning. Clouds may linger Friday afternoon in some areas, but low level drying and diurnal mixing will allow CIGS to return to VFR in most areas.

Outlook:

Saturday through Tuesday: VFR.

Marine

Moderate southwesterlies early this evening will veer to the northwest tonight following the passage of a cold front. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions will briefly develop in the nearshore zones from Ripley to Buffalo for a few hours this evening before winds and waves diminish overnight. Small Craft Advisory conditions will last much longer in the nearshore zones from the Niagara River to Cape Vincent in the post-frontal WNW flow, lasting much of the time through Friday evening before diminishing from west to east overnight.

Much lighter winds and flat wave action will return for the weekend as high pressure drifts east from the Great Lakes to southern New England.

Fire weather

No measurable rain has fallen for nearly two weeks (11 days) in most of our region. The extended period of dry weather and sunshine has cured fine fuels and leaf litter, bringing some increase in wildfire risk. There have been a number of leaf, brush, and grass fires across the region in recent days.

A weak cold front passing through tonight should generate mainly light rain showers with rainfall amounts of 0.10" or less in most areas. Dry weather will then follow Friday and last through the weekend. As a result, fine fuels and leaf litter will remain very dry.

Watches, warnings and advisories

NY: None. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LOZ043>045.