Searchlight, NV Weather

Key messages

* Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue through the day today before becoming widespread overnight into Sunday.

* Conditions dry out on Monday as gusty north winds pick up across the region. Temperatures remain slightly below normal next week.

Discussion

Today through Friday.

Showers and thunderstorms have largely waned, though light shower activity continues in northeastern Clark County as of 1 AM. Moisture will continue to surge northward into the Mojave Desert today as longwave troughing across the western CONUS helps to usher anomalous subtropical moisture into the region. Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area this afternoon, with best chances across southeastern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. Forecast instability is not as high as it was yesterday, likely due to the potential for persistent cloud cover through the morning and afternoon hours. As a result, convection will initially favor the higher terrain before pushing north-northwestward over adjacent desert valleys. Cannot rule out isolated instances of flash flooding beneath stronger storms and/or beneath training storms (forming and moving over the same location repeatedly). A shortwave trough embedded within the aforementioned longwave trough will attempt to close off over the southeastern Pacific Ocean as it pushes into the southern California Coast this evening. Meanwhile, the center of the longwave trough will sag southward, ultimately phasing with the shortwave as they pass through the Desert Southwest tonight into Sunday morning. The associated moisture surge coupled with the approach of the longwave trough axis will result in widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms across southeastern California, southern Nevada, and northwestern Arizona this evening through Sunday. Forecast precipitation amounts remain least certain across southern Nye, Clark, and Lincoln counties, as the trajectory of the moisture plume will depend on how rain-shadowed we get / far north moisture advects into our region. Drier model runs for the next 48 hours insinuate an additional 0.10 to 0.25 inches across southern Nye and Clark counties and 0.50 to 0.75 inches across eastern Lincoln County: while wetter runs favor 0.50 to 0.75 inches for southern Nye/Clark counties and 1.00 to 1.50 inches for eastern Lincoln County through Sunday night. Meanwhile, confidence is best over Mohave County, where there continues to be an 80% chance of over an inch of rainfall, with higher amounts in the higher terrain and underneath embedded thunderstorms. As a result, the Flash Flood Watch for Mohave County remains in good shape and will go into effect at 5 PM MST tonight. Will continue to assess the need to expand the areal extent of this watch as we move through the day today. Since the 0.03 inches picked up at KLAS yesterday, Harry Reid Airport now needs 0.23 inches of rainfall today to tie the Wettest October on record (currently 1.45 inches set in 2005).

Precipitation is expected to clear out Sunday night into Monday morning for the start of the work week as the longwave trough pushes eastward. Expect gusty north-northwesterly winds in the wake of the trough axis Sunday night into Monday, with gust speeds between 20 and 30 mph. Topographic enhancement may result in greater gust speeds along the Colorado River Valley, which could allow wave heights on Lake Mohave and Lake Havasu to exceed 2 feet. Afternoon highs will range 3 to 5 degrees below-normal through the work week.

Aviation

For Harry Reid: For the 06Z Forecast Package: Most of the shower activity has ended for the overnight period; however, a stray shower or two can't be ruled out, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF. CIGs will generally remain above 5kft, but CIGs down to 2kft will be possible through 08Z. Winds will generally be light and variable. Southeast winds will increase after 21Z with gusts up to 18kts. Rain chances will increase late Saturday evening with lowering CIGs and low chances of visibility restrictions.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California: For the 06Z Forecast Package: Most of the shower activity has ended, but some lower CIGs will remain across the Las Vegas Valley through at least 08z. Elsewhere, generally light winds and CIGs 10kft or higher. Rain chances will increase late afternoon areawide with lowering CIGs and slight chances of visibility restrictions. The greatest threat of rain and low CIGs will be during the overnight period.

Spotter information statement

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.