Lake Arthur, NM Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

Issued at 540 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall over southern NM Thursday, shifting to southeast and eastern NM Thursday night into early Friday.

- River flooding lingers over parts of central and northern New Mexico through at least Friday.

- Confidence continues to increase that a Pacific storm system will bring impactful rainfall across western NM and the Four Corners region late this weekend into early next week. Snow is favored above 10,000 feet elevation.

Short term

(Today through Friday Night) Issued at 145 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Deep convection from now-TD Vance is apparent in IR satellite imagery as it nears landfall on the coast of mainland Mexico. RAP analysis shows that H25 winds are favorable to carry some of its remnant moisture toward SE New Mexico and West Texas, as previously advertised. Convection is forecast to kick off over the Sacramento Mountains by early afternoon, where a Flood Watch for Flash Flooding has been issued for the Ruidoso-area burn scar zone from 12 Noon to 8 PM MDT. Various CAM runs have been consistent for over 24 hours now in generating convection along the ridge of the Sacs. RAP/GFS forecast soundings show modest storm motions toward the north at 10-15mph: not particularly slow, but also introduces the the possibility of multiple storm passages over the burn scars.

PoPs still generally confined to areas south of I-40 today, then increase to 80-90% over southeastern zones this evening before tapering off by mid-late Friday morning. Deterministic Storm Total QPF for this phase running 1.00-1.25" across Chaves and Roosevelt Counties. Gave some thought to adding them to the Flash Flood Watch, which is in effect in zones to the east covered by MAF and LUB, but not confident enough in rainfall rates tonight being high enough to be problematic. FFG in eastern Chaves County is rather high, as well. Still, will need to keep an eye on any potential urban flooding issues in Roswell.

As the vort max associated with rainfall in the east exits, attention then turns to a short-wave trough moving into western NM later Friday and into the overnight period. Timing has trended a bit slower with this feature, which is also relatively moisture- starved. The mid-level short-wave does perhaps have some upper- level jet-coupling support, so there will be modest large-scale ascent, leading to showers with embedded thunder during this time, focused west of the central mountains.

Long term

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 145 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Saturday (Halloween) still looks like one of better overall weather days in the forecast period, as H25 heights actually rise a bit in association with short-wave ridging, per the GFS, between the departing short-wave mentioned above and the next significant Pacific system taking shape offshore of CA. A few showers may linger into the early afternoon in the northern mountains, however. Daytime temps look to stay within a few degrees F either side of normal.

Deterministic guidance (GFS/ECMWF) have come into better agreement on the initial phasing of the northern- and southern-stream troughs. As the system comes ashore, a Pacific moisture tap will be well-established. By 00Z Monday, a 110KT H25 jet is progged to lie across the Four Corners area, providing lift to precipitable water values forecast to increase to ~0.8 inches in that area (and up to 1.1 inches in southern/SE NM). High (70-80%) PoPs re-enter western NM after 06Z Sunday, then spread westward through the day. Expect fairly long-duration light-moderate rain, with embedded showers and a few thunderstorms. While there is still some question as to the degree of instability that could be tapped to support higher rainfall rates: even prolonged moderate rain could cause flooding impacts (both flash and eventually riverine) due to the very moist soils already in place, especially in NW NM. WPC has internally introduced a higher-end Slight Risk (>25%) for Excessive Rainfall for this area on Sunday. At least moderate confidence now that Flood Watches will eventually be required, at least in western NM.

Most of this initial round of precip will be triggered by the southern-stream trough, which opens up and moves on through NM Sunday night, before the northern trough slows down and digs down into northern/central NM on Monday. Snow levels, which have trended up slightly for Sunday (now pushing 11,000 ft. MSL) fall to 8-9kft. Monday, though the deeper moisture will have departed by then. This would still yield a few inches of snow, mainly for the northern mountains. Elsewhere, breezy and cool (temps 5-10 deg F below normal) with WNW winds on Monday and precip chances tapering off: lastly in NE NM. Gusty northerly winds hang on in the Raton to Clayton vicinity for Tuesday. Ridging aloft builds upstream over the Intermountain West by Wed, for quieter weather locally, though still a bit on the cool side.

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Gradually lowering VFR ceilings with light winds is the trend for all terminals besides KROW as Thursday progresses. Cannot completely rule out a brief shower at KABQ/KAEG/KSAF later this afternoon, but chances are less than 20%. KROW is a different story, with LIFR cigs/vis in play through about 15Z, before improving to VFR for much of the afternoon. Timing has shifted a couple of hours later for showers and thunderstorms in the KROW vicinity, more into the early evening vs. mid-afternoon. Thunder yields to light rain and MVFR cigs around 06Z.

Fire weather

Issued at 145 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Fire spread concern is low through the middle of next week. A series of Pacific storm systems keep RH above 30 percent, except for west-central New Mexico this afternoon, where RH falls into the 20s. Periods of rain and high-elevation snow are expected, particularly Friday and again Sunday into Monday. Southerly breezes increase on Sunday, before veering more west- northwesterly and strengthening on Monday. Stronger northerly winds persist in the northeast into Tuesday. Decent ventilation rates today trend poorer on Friday, before improving again on Saturday. Fair-to-poor vent rates on Sunday become good or better Monday prior to decreasing again on Tuesday.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Farmington::::::: . 68 46 67 47 / 0 0 20 80 Dulce::::::::: 65 37 65 39 / 0 5 10 80 Cuba::::::::: . 64 42 62 43 / 0 5 20 70 Gallup:::::::: .. 68 41 66 41 / 0 0 30 80 El Morro:::::::: 66 39 63 40 / 0 5 40 80 Grants:::::::: .. 68 42 64 43 / 0 5 40 80 Quemado:::::::: . 68 40 64 42 / 0 10 30 80 Magdalena::::::: .. 67 46 64 47 / 5 40 40 60 Datil::::::::: 65 41 62 42 / 20 20 40 70 Reserve:::::::: . 70 41 67 45 / 5 10 40 80 Glenwood:::::::: 75 46 70 48 / 10 20 50 80 Chama::::::::: 59 37 59 38 / 0 5 20 70 Los Alamos::::::: . 64 45 61 45 / 0 10 20 70 Pecos::::::::: 65 40 60 42 / 5 30 20 60 Cerro/Questa:::::: .. 61 39 59 41 / 0 0 30 30 Red River::::::: .. 54 33 51 33 / 0 0 30 30 Angel Fire::::::: . 60 26 56 27 / 0 5 30 30 Taos::::::::: . 64 38 62 37 / 0 5 30 40 Mora::::::::: . 64 38 58 38 / 0 20 30 40 Espanola:::::::: 69 44 66 45 / 0 10 10 70 Santa Fe:::::::: 65 44 61 46 / 0 20 20 70 Santa Fe Airport::::: . 67 44 64 44 / 0 20 10 70 Albuquerque Foothills::: .. 71 50 66 52 / 0 20 10 70 Albuquerque Heights:::: . 71 50 68 50 / 0 20 10 70 Albuquerque Valley:::: .. 73 49 70 49 / 0 20 10 70 Albuquerque West Mesa::: .. 71 49 68 51 / 0 10 10 70 Belen::::::::: 73 48 70 50 / 0 40 10 70 Bernalillo::::::: . 72 49 69 50 / 0 10 5 70 Bosque Farms:::::: .. 73 46 70 48 / 0 20 10 70 Corrales:::::::: 72 48 69 50 / 0 10 5 70 Los Lunas::::::: .. 73 46 70 50 / 0 30 10 70 Placitas:::::::: 69 49 66 50 / 0 20 10 70 Rio Rancho::::::: . 71 50 68 51 / 0 10 5 70 Socorro:::::::: . 74 52 71 52 / 0 40 20 60 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest::: 65 45 60 45 / 10 20 10 70 Tijeras:::::::: . 67 46 63 46 / 10 20 10 70 Edgewood:::::::: 68 44 63 43 / 20 30 20 70 Moriarty/Estancia::::: 69 40 64 42 / 30 30 20 60 Clines Corners:::::: 65 44 60 43 / 30 50 40 60 Mountainair::::::: 67 44 62 44 / 30 40 20 70 Gran Quivira:::::: .. 67 44 63 45 / 40 50 30 60 Carrizozo::::::: .. 69 49 65 50 / 60 50 30 60 Ruidoso:::::::: . 62 44 59 46 / 70 70 40 60 Capulin:::::::: . 66 43 57 39 / 0 10 50 10 Raton::::::::: 68 41 61 39 / 0 30 40 10 Springer:::::::: 71 42 62 39 / 0 20 40 10 Las Vegas::::::: .. 66 42 60 41 / 10 50 50 30 Clayton:::::::: . 72 49 59 45 / 0 30 80 10 Roy::::::::: .. 68 46 59 42 / 0 50 70 10 Conchas:::::::: . 74 51 65 48 / 0 60 60 20 Santa Rosa::::::: . 71 51 64 48 / 5 70 60 30 Tucumcari::::::: .. 74 51 63 47 / 0 60 80 10 Clovis:::::::: .. 72 53 61 50 / 5 90 80 10 Portales:::::::: 73 52 61 49 / 10 90 80 10 Fort Sumner::::::: 71 52 65 49 / 10 80 70 10 Roswell:::::::: . 71 54 67 52 / 30 90 60 20 Picacho:::::::: . 68 50 65 49 / 30 90 40 30 Elk::::::::: .. 66 47 62 47 / 40 90 30 40

Watches, warnings and advisories

Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ226.