Estancia, NM Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

Issued at 545 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Showers and patchy fog will persist across eastern NM through this morning. Rain may cause slightly elevated flows in arroyos and rivers.

- Widespread light rain will spread across western and central NM tonight through Saturday morning.

- Heavier rainfall will return Sunday into Monday across western New Mexico. Given saturated soils, there is a chance for localized flooding from persistent rainfall. Though rivers rises are expected, there remains a low chance for additional river flooding.

- Severe thunderstorms will bring a threat for hail, damaging winds and tornadoes across central and eastern NM Sunday night.

Short term

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 210 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Moisture advection, some associated with the remnants from TS Vance, continues across southeast NM this morning. Light to moderate rain is expected to continue across eastern NM through mid day as a weak shortwave continues to pass overhead. As that precipitation begins to wane, isolated showers and thunderstorms should develop over the high terrain. Though localized moderate to heavy precipitation can't be ruled out, these storms should largely be uneventful with mainly light rainfall as the next round of upper level forcing will not come until tonight.

Round 2 of precipitation should start this evening across western NM as another short wave shifts over the area. Precipitation will shift eastward overnight, reaching the Central Mtn Chain by sunrise Saturday. Most precipitation should wane by midday before reaching eastern NM thanks to downslope flow. Rainfall amounts should generally be less than 0.50 inches, though can't rule out a few areas getting closer to 1 inch. Overall, impacts are not expected from this rainfall. After the rainfall ends, a relatively quiet Saturday afternoon with near normal high temperatures is on tap.

Long term

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 210 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

After a quiet Saturday night, the next period of impactful weather will arrive Sunday into Monday. An upper low over the Pacific will attempt to phase with a northern stream low diving into the Great Basin on Sunday. Subtropical moisture will advect into NM ahead of the Pacific low and the approaching systems will provide plenty of ascent for widespread rainfall. PWATs will climb to near 1 inch, which is 4 to 5 standard deviations above normal for early Nov. At this time, it continue to look too stable for thunderstorms given moist adiabatic moisture profiles, so this should initially be a persistent soaking rainfall. Unfortunately, given the very saturated soils across much of western NM, increased runoff is likely. Between one half inch and two inches of rainfall are most likely across western NM, but localized areas could see upwards of 3 inches from persistent rainfall, especially in favored upslope flow locations like the Tusas Mountains. Even persistent light to moderate rainfall could cause flooding problems given the saturated soils. At this time, we are expecting rivers to rise, including across San Juan County, but river levels are expected to stay below flood stage. If any upstream areas receives these higher end rainfall amounts, that could push rivers close to or just above minor flood stage. A Flood Watch has been issued for areas near and west of the ContDvd starting 5am Sunday and continuing through 11am Monday.

It should be noted that locations across central and eastern NM will receive rainfall as well, however, the main concern shifts to severe weather as opposed to flooding. The NAM and RRFS are suggesting MLCAPE values up to 1000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear values of 40-50kt. Severe storms will be capable of all hazards as they quickly shift eastward along the initial Pacific front.

The subtropical moisture should shift out of the area late Sunday night or early Monday morning, but moisture that was associated with the northern stream low will shift into northwest NM. The low itself shifts over north central NM Monday morning, and an associated stronger cold front will push through northwest NM. As the upper low continues to slide east-southeastward Monday, the front will continue to slide southeastward through the remainder of the area, with a backdoor front entering northeast NM Monday afternoon. With this cold air advection, snow levels will fall from 11-12kft to 8-9kft. More precipitation is expected along each frontal boundary, but snow will be the most likely precip type above 9kft in the northern mountains. Before precipitation wanes late Monday, 1-4 inches of the white stuff is expected.

In addition to the rain, potential flooding, severe wx and snow, winds will also become a concern Sunday and moreso Monday. On Sunday, southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will be favored ahead of the initial Pacific cold front as a lee side surface low deepens. On Monday, along and behind the secondary, stronger front, west to northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will be common, but winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph will be possible from near KLVS and KCQC southward to the South Central Mtns.

Ridging moves over the Desert Southwest Tue/Wed with quiet conditions expected. The upper level ridge slides east on Thursday as an upper low tracks northeastward across the Great Basin, but quiet conditions should persist across NM.

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

MVFR to IFR cigs will become more common across eastern NM this morning as a batch of rain shifts northward across the area. While rain continues across eastern NM through the day, a few showers and thunderstorms will develop across the high terrain during the afternoon hours. By tonight, much of the precipitation across central and eastern NM will have diminished, but the next upper level wave will bring widespread rainfall western NM. This rain will continue to slide from west to east during the overnight hours. Low VFR or MVFR cigs/vsbys are likely as well as mountain obscurations with the rainfall. Low clouds will also linger or return across eastern NM tonight.

Fire weather

Issued at 210 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next 7 days. Several rounds of precipitation are expected through Monday, with wetting rainfall likely, and light snow accumulations across the northern mountains. Southwest winds will increase on Sunday ahead of an initial cold front with gusts up to 35 mph likely. Then a stronger cold front will slide from northwest to southeast on Monday, bringing west to northwest wind gusts up to 35 mph across much of the area, except gusts up to 50 mph from KLVS to KCQC southward across the highlands. Quieter conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Farmington::::::: . 68 47 62 46 / 5 90 10 60 Dulce::::::::: 65 40 57 36 / 5 90 50 40 Cuba::::::::: . 63 43 58 41 / 5 90 20 40 Gallup:::::::: .. 66 40 61 41 / 30 90 5 70 El Morro:::::::: 63 39 60 41 / 30 80 5 70 Grants:::::::: .. 64 43 62 43 / 20 90 10 60 Quemado:::::::: . 65 41 62 43 / 10 90 10 50 Magdalena::::::: .. 63 46 62 48 / 20 80 10 5 Datil::::::::: 61 42 60 43 / 20 90 10 20 Reserve:::::::: . 68 44 64 46 / 20 100 20 60 Glenwood:::::::: 72 47 68 50 / 30 100 20 60 Chama::::::::: 60 38 52 35 / 10 90 60 30 Los Alamos::::::: . 60 45 58 43 / 10 80 50 20 Pecos::::::::: 61 41 59 39 / 30 70 40 10 Cerro/Questa:::::: .. 60 41 55 39 / 10 60 60 5 Red River::::::: .. 53 34 48 31 / 30 40 50 5 Angel Fire::::::: . 58 27 53 24 / 30 40 40 5 Taos::::::::: . 63 39 58 34 / 10 60 60 5 Mora::::::::: . 59 38 58 36 / 30 40 30 0 Espanola:::::::: 68 46 64 43 / 10 70 50 10 Santa Fe:::::::: 62 45 59 44 / 20 80 50 10 Santa Fe Airport::::: . 65 45 61 42 / 10 80 50 10 Albuquerque Foothills::: .. 69 51 64 51 / 10 90 20 10 Albuquerque Heights:::: . 70 49 66 49 / 5 90 10 10 Albuquerque Valley:::: .. 72 50 67 49 / 0 90 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa::: .. 69 51 65 50 / 0 90 10 10 Belen::::::::: 71 50 69 49 / 5 80 10 10 Bernalillo::::::: . 71 50 67 48 / 5 80 10 10 Bosque Farms:::::: .. 71 48 68 48 / 5 80 10 10 Corrales:::::::: 71 50 66 49 / 5 90 10 10 Los Lunas::::::: .. 71 50 68 49 / 5 80 10 10 Placitas:::::::: 67 49 64 49 / 10 90 10 10 Rio Rancho::::::: . 70 50 65 49 / 5 80 10 10 Socorro:::::::: . 72 52 70 52 / 5 80 20 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest::: 62 44 59 44 / 10 90 20 20 Tijeras:::::::: . 64 46 62 46 / 10 80 20 20 Edgewood:::::::: 64 43 62 42 / 10 80 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia::::: 65 42 64 40 / 10 70 10 10 Clines Corners:::::: 59 44 60 43 / 20 60 20 10 Mountainair::::::: 64 44 62 44 / 10 80 20 5 Gran Quivira:::::: .. 62 45 62 45 / 10 80 30 5 Carrizozo::::::: .. 65 50 64 50 / 20 70 30 0 Ruidoso:::::::: . 59 46 59 45 / 40 70 30 0 Capulin:::::::: . 57 40 61 39 / 10 5 5 0 Raton::::::::: 61 41 64 37 / 10 10 5 0 Springer:::::::: 61 41 66 37 / 20 10 5 0 Las Vegas::::::: .. 58 41 61 39 / 30 50 20 0 Clayton:::::::: . 58 47 65 46 / 30 30 5 0 Roy::::::::: .. 57 45 64 42 / 30 20 5 0 Conchas:::::::: . 63 50 71 49 / 30 20 10 0 Santa Rosa::::::: . 61 50 69 50 / 30 40 20 0 Tucumcari::::::: .. 61 49 71 50 / 70 20 10 0 Clovis:::::::: .. 61 51 68 53 / 90 20 20 0 Portales:::::::: 61 51 69 53 / 90 20 20 0 Fort Sumner::::::: 64 51 69 52 / 50 20 20 0 Roswell:::::::: . 66 53 70 54 / 50 30 20 0 Picacho:::::::: . 64 50 68 50 / 40 40 40 0 Elk::::::::: .. 64 47 66 47 / 50 60 20 0

Watches, warnings and advisories

Flood Watch from late Saturday night through Monday morning for NMZ201>211.