Chupadero, NM Weather

: New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER:

Key messages

Issued at 1228 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Widespread light to moderate showers and a few thunderstorms will spread east across western and central NM tonight through Saturday morning.

- Heavier rainfall will return Sunday into Monday across western New Mexico. Given saturated soils, there is a chance for localized flooding from persistent rainfall. River rises are expected across northern and western NM and there is a moderate to high chance for river flooding.

- There is a low chance that severe thunderstorms will develop across eastern NM Sunday night, bringing a threat for hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

Short term

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1228 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

PWATs are on the uptrend across the region ahead of a 2nd shortwave trough and are forecast to continue the upward trend through Saturday night. The 2nd shortwave trough will move east across the forecast area tonight into Saturday morning, bringing showers, areas of light rain and a few thunderstorms to western and central NM. Rainfall amounts with this round will range 0.10-0.25", with up to 0.50" possible. Little to no impacts are expected with this round of rain, but will serve to further saturate soils ahead of a bigger event on Sun/Mon. Patches of fog may redevelop across eastern NM late tonight into Saturday morning, but increasing cloud cover is leading to lower forecast confidence and low stratus could be favored over fog. Very little to no activity is forecast behind the departing shortwave trough on Saturday. A deep upper low diving south along the west coast Saturday night will attempt to phase with a Pacific low offshore of the northern Baja Peninsula and steer an atmospheric river into the Desert SW and western NM. Numerous showers will develop and move into far wester NM after midnight, with rainfall amounts ranging from 0.10-0.25" late Saturday night.

Long term

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1228 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

PWATs will continue to climb and set new calendar day records Sunday as the atmospheric river is steered over NM in advance of the approaching upper level trough/low. High snow levels on Sunday of 11Kft or higher will bring a rain-on-snow component to this event, mainly across the San Juan Mountains of Colorado where high qpf and significant runoff is expected to route down the La Plata and Animas Rivers and end up in the San Juan River. River rises are a guarantee and there is a moderate to high chance the aforementioned rivers go to at least minor flood stage. That process will take some time and river flooding may not materialize in our forecast area until Sunday night or Monday. The San Francisco River in Catron County is also at risk of flooding as upslope forcing hits the far eastern extent of the Mogollon rim hard. There is also a lesser flash flood risk due to lower rainfall rates, certainly relative to last week, as this event quickly becomes orographically forced on Sunday. Any urban or arroyo flooding will take longer to develop. This is all covered in our current Flood Watch, which goes into effect Sunday morning and continues through Monday morning. There is also a low risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday night across eastern NM, mainly across the east central and southeast plains near the TX border where 0-6km bulk shear may exceed 60kts and sufficient, although unimpressive, instability will linger ahead of a Pacific cold front. Strong winds are forecast both ahead of and behind the cold front going into Monday and a Wind Advisory may be required for central and northeast portions of the area. Snow levels will come down Sunday night through Monday as the cold front pushes through and the upper low moves over northern NM, bringing a few inches of snow to the northern mountains above 9Kft. Stronger northerly winds will likely persist behind the cold front on the backside of the departing upper low across far easter NM Monday night through Tuesday. A warming/drying trend is forecast thereafter, although the ridging going into mid week is more transient with the latest modeling. Significant model spread from mid through late week is leading to a lower confidence forecast.

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

IFR conditions at KROW will improve to MVFR this afternoon and then deteriorate overnight back down to IFR. At the remaining TAF sites, VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the afternoon hours, although short-lived MVFR conditions are likely with scattered showers and isolated storms late afternoon into the evening hours. Deterioration is forecast across western and central NM overnight, down to MVFR in rain with potential for IFR conditions at both KFMN and KGUP. Mountain obscurations will become widespread overnight. Winds will generally be light.

Fire weather

Issued at 1228 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for at least the next seven days. Humidity and chances for wetting precipitation will trend up through the weekend in advance of an upper low, forecast to push through on Monday along with a Pacific cold front. Strong winds are forecast both ahead of and behind the cold front on Monday. Poor vent rates are forecast on Tuesday under the influence of an upper level ridge following behind the departing upper low. A warming/drying trend is forecast going into mid week, but lower forecast confidence going into late week due to some model spread and run-to-run inconsistency.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Farmington::::::: . 47 62 47 59 / 80 20 40 90 Dulce::::::::: 42 57 38 54 / 80 60 20 100 Cuba::::::::: . 43 57 42 55 / 90 30 30 70 Gallup:::::::: .. 43 61 43 58 / 80 10 80 80 El Morro:::::::: 41 59 42 58 / 70 10 70 70 Grants:::::::: .. 43 62 45 61 / 70 10 50 60 Quemado:::::::: . 42 62 45 61 / 70 10 40 50 Magdalena::::::: .. 46 63 48 64 / 70 20 20 30 Datil::::::::: 42 60 44 61 / 70 20 30 40 Reserve:::::::: . 45 64 47 64 / 80 20 60 90 Glenwood:::::::: 49 68 52 68 / 80 20 50 80 Chama::::::::: 39 52 36 49 / 80 70 20 100 Los Alamos::::::: . 44 58 44 55 / 80 30 20 70 Pecos::::::::: 43 59 41 59 / 60 40 10 60 Cerro/Questa:::::: .. 41 55 39 53 / 50 50 10 70 Red River::::::: .. 35 48 32 46 / 40 50 10 70 Angel Fire::::::: . 34 52 28 52 / 40 40 10 50 Taos::::::::: . 42 58 36 56 / 50 40 10 60 Mora::::::::: . 40 58 38 57 / 40 20 10 40 Espanola:::::::: 47 64 43 63 / 60 30 10 50 Santa Fe:::::::: 45 59 44 59 / 70 40 10 60 Santa Fe Airport::::: . 46 62 44 61 / 70 40 10 50 Albuquerque Foothills::: .. 51 65 51 67 / 80 30 10 50 Albuquerque Heights:::: . 50 66 51 68 / 70 30 10 40 Albuquerque Valley:::: .. 51 68 51 70 / 70 30 20 40 Albuquerque West Mesa::: .. 51 66 51 66 / 70 30 20 50 Belen::::::::: 51 69 51 70 / 70 30 20 30 Bernalillo::::::: . 51 67 49 68 / 80 20 10 50 Bosque Farms:::::: .. 51 68 50 70 / 70 30 20 40 Corrales:::::::: 51 67 50 68 / 70 30 20 50 Los Lunas::::::: .. 51 68 51 69 / 70 30 20 30 Placitas:::::::: 49 64 49 64 / 80 30 10 50 Rio Rancho::::::: . 51 66 50 66 / 70 20 20 50 Socorro:::::::: . 52 70 53 73 / 60 30 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest::: 45 59 45 60 / 80 30 10 50 Tijeras:::::::: . 47 61 47 62 / 80 30 10 50 Edgewood:::::::: 45 62 43 64 / 70 30 10 40 Moriarty/Estancia::::: 45 64 42 66 / 70 30 10 30 Clines Corners:::::: 45 60 44 62 / 60 30 10 30 Mountainair::::::: 46 62 46 64 / 70 40 10 30 Gran Quivira:::::: .. 47 62 47 64 / 70 40 10 20 Carrizozo::::::: .. 51 64 50 69 / 60 30 10 10 Ruidoso:::::::: . 46 59 46 65 / 60 30 10 10 Capulin:::::::: . 42 61 41 59 / 10 10 5 10 Raton::::::::: 44 65 39 62 / 10 10 5 10 Springer:::::::: 44 66 39 64 / 20 10 5 10 Las Vegas::::::: .. 44 61 41 59 / 40 30 10 30 Clayton:::::::: . 49 66 47 65 / 30 10 5 10 Roy::::::::: .. 46 64 43 62 / 30 20 5 10 Conchas:::::::: . 52 71 49 70 / 30 20 5 10 Santa Rosa::::::: . 52 69 50 68 / 30 30 10 10 Tucumcari::::::: .. 51 70 51 72 / 30 20 5 10 Clovis:::::::: .. 51 68 53 73 / 30 10 10 5 Portales:::::::: 51 69 53 73 / 20 10 10 5 Fort Sumner::::::: 52 70 53 70 / 30 20 10 10 Roswell:::::::: . 55 71 55 73 / 30 10 10 5 Picacho:::::::: . 51 69 50 73 / 40 10 10 5 Elk::::::::: .. 48 66 48 73 / 50 10 10 5

Watches, warnings and advisories

Flood Watch from late Saturday night through Monday morning for NMZ201>211.