Chili, NM Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

Issued at 527 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- River flooding lingers over parts of central and northern New Mexico through early Friday.

- Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall over southeast NM Thursday night and Friday, then over the southwest mountains Friday afternoon and night.

- Confidence is increasing that a Pacific storm system will bring additional rainfall across western NM and the Four Corners region late this weekend into early next week. Snow is favored above 10,000 feet elevation.

Short term

(Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 142 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Current GOES mid-level water-vapor satellite imagery indicates dry WSW flow aloft, indicative of a generally pleasant fall day ahead. Nighttime microphysics RGB shows pockets of low clouds and fog, mainly over Guadalupe and Curry counties at this time. Latest model guidance and NMDOT webcam trends suggest the fog will not become widespread or dense, but something to monitor as sunrise approaches. Max temps today will generally run within a few degrees F of normal values, except in the far eastern Plains where some mid- and even upper 70s are forecast. Vast majority of the CWA will stay dry, but CAMs are showing potential for a rogue storm or two to develop again in the same spot of SE Lincoln/SW Chaves counties, which has been a favored spot the past two afternoons. Any storms should fizzle out by sunset, yielding a quiet night with overnight low temps running 5-15F above normal.

Heading into Thursday, precipitation chances return as some remnant moisture associated with current eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Vance clips NM as it moves up from the south. The deepest moisture is progged to move over southeastern NM Thursday night. Eastern Chaves and Roosevelt counties could pick up 1-2 inches of rainfall before it tapers off early Friday morning. A WPC Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall clips these areas in consequence. There is also some concern for burn-scar flash flooding around Ruidoso, as the RRFS/REFS indicate storm development along the spine of the Sacramento Mountains Thursday afternoon, with 6-hour LPMM amounts in the 1-2 inch range in both the REFS and HREF systems. No severe storms are expected with this activity at this time.

Long term

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 142 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

As the aforementioned shortwave exits eastern NM early in the day on Friday, another short-wave moves into SW NM toward afternoon, cutting across the state through Friday night. This shortwave will have the support of widespread lift from the left-exit region of an H25 subtropical jet moving into northern Mexico, especially over southern portions of the state. This is consistent with the WPC Slight Risk ERO area nosing into the Gila Wilderness, within a larger Marginal area. QPF amounts with this short-wave are not overly impressive, but localized flash flooding could be a concern if enough instability is present.

Saturday (Halloween), at least during the daytime, should see a relative break between systems, as flat/short-wave ridging sets up between the departing aforementioned system and the next digging southern stream trough off of California. Evening temperatures in the 50s-60s F and generally light winds should be favorable for outdoor activities.

Although confidence is generally increasing regarding precipitation from the next significant storm system crossing New Mexico from Sunday through early week, some details still remain to be sorted out. Differences are still apparent in the ensemble clustering regarding the degree of phasing between northern and southern stream components of the system, though a good Pacific moisture tap should be in play regardless. NBM highest PoPs and QPF favor the window from late Saturday night through late Sunday night, with upslope areas of the Continental Divide and central mountain chain most favored, with 1-2 inches of liquid-equivalent precip. WPC has 0.5-1.0 inches falling in the Farmington area during this window, but close to a gradient with higher amounts farther north. QPF in the San Juan mountains of Colorado, currently in the 1-2 inch range, will need to be closely monitored for any potential hydrological issues downstream on the Animas and San Juan rivers by Monday. Snow levels still progged to hover around 10,000 ft. MSL (as H7 temps stay around 0C in the GFS, for example), but confidence isn't especially high, as differences in the phasing and ultimate digging of the northern-stream trough/low will determine this.

By Tuesday, deterministic models and ensemble systems end up in a pretty similar place, with a seasonally deep low in the central/southern Plains with windy and brisk conditions on its backside, especially for NE NM. A wrap-around vort max could bring some light rain on the plains and additional light snow in the northern mountains, and POTNL the highland zones as well.

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Outside of KROW: all other TAF sites will see VFR skies and light diurnally driven winds through the period, with high (90%) confidence. Low clouds have developed south- and westward into the Pecos valley, per latest GOES Nighttime Cloud Microphysics RGB satellite. Nearby observations reveal that fog/mist has been able to develop at ground level where winds temporarily drop below 6-8 knots, so will maintain a TEMPO for MVFR VIS at KROW through 15Z. Later in the afternoon, short-term models pretty consistent in developing a thunderstorm or two over western Chaves County, but confidence on direct terminal impacts at KROW is low (20%), so have dropped PROB30 group to -SHRA instead.

Fire weather

Issued at 142 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Overall, fire weather concerns are rather low through early next week. A series of Pacific storm systems are forecast to keep relative humidity well above 30%, except for west-central New Mexico on Thursday afternoon, where RH falls into the 20s. Periods of rain and high-elevation (above approximately 10,000 ft. MSL) are expected, particularly Friday and again Sunday into Monday. Southwest breezes increase on Sunday, before veering more north- northwesterly and strengthening on Monday, especially in northeastern NM. Ventilation trends poorer after Thursday, then recovers on Sunday as winds pick back up.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Farmington::::::: . 65 38 68 46 / 0 0 0 5 Dulce::::::::: 61 32 65 36 / 0 0 0 10 Cuba::::::::: . 63 38 64 43 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup:::::::: .. 67 30 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro:::::::: 65 33 66 39 / 0 0 0 10 Grants:::::::: .. 68 32 68 40 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado:::::::: . 68 36 68 42 / 0 0 10 10 Magdalena::::::: .. 68 43 67 47 / 0 0 0 20 Datil::::::::: 65 37 64 42 / 0 0 20 20 Reserve:::::::: . 71 38 71 44 / 0 0 20 20 Glenwood:::::::: 76 44 76 48 / 0 0 30 20 Chama::::::::: 55 33 58 36 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos::::::: . 62 43 63 45 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos::::::::: 63 37 65 41 / 0 0 0 10 Cerro/Questa:::::: .. 59 37 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 Red River::::::: .. 51 31 53 33 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire::::::: . 56 23 59 24 / 10 0 0 0 Taos::::::::: . 61 31 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Mora::::::::: . 64 33 64 37 / 0 0 0 5 Espanola:::::::: 68 38 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe:::::::: 63 41 65 44 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport::::: . 65 39 67 42 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills::: .. 70 48 71 48 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Heights:::: . 71 47 72 49 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Valley:::: .. 72 44 73 47 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa::: .. 70 45 71 49 / 0 0 0 10 Belen::::::::: 73 44 73 49 / 0 0 0 10 Bernalillo::::::: . 71 44 72 48 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms:::::: .. 72 42 73 46 / 0 0 0 10 Corrales:::::::: 71 44 72 47 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas::::::: .. 72 42 73 47 / 0 0 0 10 Placitas:::::::: 68 45 69 47 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho::::::: . 70 45 71 49 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro:::::::: . 76 49 74 52 / 0 0 0 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest::: 64 43 65 45 / 0 0 0 10 Tijeras:::::::: . 65 45 67 47 / 0 0 0 10 Edgewood:::::::: 66 39 67 44 / 0 0 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia::::: 69 33 69 40 / 0 0 10 10 Clines Corners:::::: 65 42 65 44 / 0 0 10 20 Mountainair::::::: 68 42 68 45 / 0 0 10 20 Gran Quivira:::::: .. 67 44 67 44 / 0 0 20 20 Carrizozo::::::: .. 71 50 70 49 / 0 0 50 40 Ruidoso:::::::: . 67 45 65 44 / 5 5 60 60 Capulin:::::::: . 67 38 65 43 / 0 0 0 0 Raton::::::::: 70 34 68 40 / 0 0 0 5 Springer:::::::: 71 32 70 39 / 0 0 0 10 Las Vegas::::::: .. 66 37 66 41 / 0 0 0 20 Clayton:::::::: . 74 47 73 49 / 0 0 0 5 Roy::::::::: .. 71 39 69 46 / 0 0 0 20 Conchas:::::::: . 76 46 74 52 / 0 0 0 40 Santa Rosa::::::: . 74 46 72 51 / 0 0 0 30 Tucumcari::::::: .. 78 51 75 52 / 0 0 0 50 Clovis:::::::: .. 75 53 73 53 / 0 5 5 60 Portales:::::::: 77 53 73 53 / 0 5 5 70 Fort Sumner::::::: 75 51 72 53 / 0 5 5 60 Roswell:::::::: . 76 53 71 54 / 20 20 10 80 Picacho:::::::: . 75 49 71 50 / 30 20 20 70 Elk::::::::: .. 73 47 69 47 / 20 20 30 70

Watches, warnings and advisories

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for NMZ233-237.