Black Hat, NM Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

Issued at 1142 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- River flooding will linger over parts of central and northern New Mexico.

- Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall over southeast NM Thursday night and Friday, then over the southwest mountains Friday afternoon and night.

- Additional rainfall is becoming more likely across portions of western NM and the Four Corners region this weekend. Winter precipitation is favored above 10,000 feet.

Update

Issued at 359 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Quick update to PoPs and Wx grids through this evening and again Wednesday aftn/eve. Updates already out.

Short term

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 211 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Primarily benign weather is expected through the short term period across the state, with the exception being the low chance of a strong to severe thunderstorm across Chaves County today and tomorrow. Westerly upper level flow remains over the area, aiding to some weak upper level shear. Mesoanalysis already paints SBCAPE values over 2000 J/kg across southeast NM, and RAP soundings show favorable profiles for large hail growth. However, a lack of widespread forcing should preclude any scattered thunderstorm development in our area, with any development likely remaining isolated and conditional in nature. Should there be any storm development in our forecast area, the threat will subside by 7-9pm this evening. HREF and REFS guidance show a weak signal for patchy fog to return tonight and tomorrow morning in portions of eastern NM, primarily from Santa Rosa to Clovis to Roswell. The remnant moisture (both surface and atmospheric) point to this being a plausible occurrence, especially given the areas of fog that occurred this morning. A very conditional storm threat remains across Chaves County on Wednesday as well, though the thermodynamic profiles suggest a slightly weaker environment. Nonetheless, similar to today, if a a storm can form, it will have a good environment to become strong to severe with large hail being the primary concern.

Temperatures across the state remain near average, with high temperatures in the mid to high 60s across western and central NM, and highs in the 70s across eastern NM. Similar can be said for Wednesday, though high temperatures get into the mid to upper 70s across eastern NM. Favorable radiational cooling effects look to occur tonight, bringing the temperature down several degrees in a few valley locations.

Long term

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 211 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

The long term starts to bring in another unsettled, active weather period. The first weather feature of note will be the remnants of what is currently Tropical Storm Vance. The upper level flow begins to drop and turn more southerly on Thursday, allowing for more direct advection of the tropical moisture. A weak vorticity lobe develops within the flow and continues to slowly drag up the remnants into portions of southeast and east central NM Thursday night into Friday. As the overall flow is rather weak (20-30kts at 500mb), the moisture looks to take its time moving through the parts of eastern NM. Forecast soundings within the moisture show a nearly fully moist-adiabat throughout the air column, signaling low to no instability and widespread moderate rain. Current 24 hour NBM percentiles (ending Friday afternoon) for rainfall have most likely rainfall amounts at roughly 1-1.5" from a line of Roswell to Tucumcari eastward, with high end amounts entering the 2-3" range. While the rainfall rates are not expected to be significant given the lack of instability, soils are likely to be saturated from previous rainfall events, leading to a quicker onset of flooding in some areas.

A second pocket of vorticity lags behind the initial slug of tropical moisture, sparking additional showers and storms across portions of central and western NM Friday afternoon into Saturday. This second edition of storms does not look to have the energy that the tropical moisture has, and NBM QPF is much lower as a result. Most likely rainfall amounts from this second punch sit between 0.25- 0.5", primarily around the Gila Region in Catron County.

After the two pieces of vorticity move out of the region through the weekend, attention turns to two areas of low pressure that are forecast to approach New Mexico late Saturday into Sunday. An initial low pressure spinning over the Intermountain West looks to interact with a fast-approaching low coming off of the Pacific Ocean. These two features are slated to bring additional rainfall to parts of western NM and the Four Corners region Saturday night through at least Sunday evening. Given the placement of the more northern low, and how the southern low pressure looks to move into the region, a component of upslope flow likely favors higher rainfall amounts near terrain. There remains high uncertainty in location of the heaviest rainfall, as well as the amounts themselves. The primary driver in this is the path of each low and how they may phase with each other to become one. Ensemble cluster analysis is in good agreement on a troughing pattern developing through the weekend, though the strength and placement of it will dictate the extent of rainfall. A faster, more progressive trough would bring overall less rainfall amounts to the area while a slower one would allow for more rainfall. As it stands now, the most likely rainfall falls between 0.5-1" across western NM locations, with higher amounts of 1-1.5" closer to higher terrain.

How this low progresses across NM also dictates the weather to begin the first week of November. Models are split on whether the low becomes closed or remains an open wave, and this would have an effect on any potential wrap around precipitation on the northern and western side of the low. 700mb temperatures look to drop to just above freezing, so this could spell a few inches of snow across the higher peaks of the northern mountains through the weekend and into next week.

Aviation

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

VFR is forecast for all terminals, except KROW, with high (80%) confidence. Latest short-term model guidance continues to bring light fog/low clouds into KROW from the Pecos valley, with moderate confidence in brief IFR conditions from 11-15Z. A rogue thunderstorm could also impact KROW late Wednesday afternoon, though confidence is low-to-medium. Latest HRRR run does support a storm making it into the vicinity, so will carry a short PROB30 group for now.

Fire weather

Issued at 211 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days. Generally light winds with mainly clear skies are expected through Wednesday, outside of the isolated chance of a storm across southeast NM each afternoon. Ventilation rates gradually trend poorer throughout the week. Precipitation first returns to eastern NM Thursday evening, and then to western and central NM by mid to late weekend. A few locations above 10,000ft in the northern mountains may see some wintry precipitation this weekend as well.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Farmington::::::: . 66 38 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce::::::::: 59 32 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba::::::::: . 58 38 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup:::::::: .. 64 31 67 30 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro:::::::: 64 32 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 Grants:::::::: .. 66 33 68 32 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado:::::::: . 67 35 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena::::::: .. 68 42 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 Datil::::::::: 64 36 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve:::::::: . 66 37 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood:::::::: 71 43 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Chama::::::::: 53 32 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos::::::: . 61 40 62 43 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos::::::::: 60 37 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa:::::: .. 58 37 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 Red River::::::: .. 49 31 51 31 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire::::::: . 55 24 56 23 / 0 5 10 0 Taos::::::::: . 60 32 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 Mora::::::::: . 61 34 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola:::::::: 64 39 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe:::::::: 60 40 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport::::: . 62 38 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills::: .. 66 45 70 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights:::: . 67 46 71 47 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley:::: .. 70 44 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa::: .. 67 45 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Belen::::::::: 72 43 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo::::::: . 68 43 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms:::::: .. 70 41 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales:::::::: 68 43 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas::::::: .. 71 41 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas:::::::: 66 44 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho::::::: . 67 45 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro:::::::: . 75 46 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest::: 63 41 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras:::::::: . 64 43 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood:::::::: 65 38 66 39 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia::::: 67 32 69 33 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners:::::: 65 39 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair::::::: 66 41 68 42 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira:::::: .. 67 42 67 44 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo::::::: .. 69 49 71 50 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso:::::::: . 63 45 67 45 / 5 0 5 5 Capulin:::::::: . 63 39 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 Raton::::::::: 68 34 70 34 / 0 0 0 0 Springer:::::::: 71 32 71 32 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas::::::: .. 63 37 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton:::::::: . 69 47 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 Roy::::::::: .. 66 40 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas:::::::: . 74 48 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa::::::: . 73 47 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari::::::: .. 74 52 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis:::::::: .. 71 52 75 53 / 0 5 0 5 Portales:::::::: 73 51 77 53 / 0 5 0 5 Fort Sumner::::::: 72 51 75 51 / 5 0 0 5 Roswell:::::::: . 72 50 76 53 / 20 0 20 20 Picacho:::::::: . 72 46 75 49 / 30 0 30 20 Elk::::::::: .. 69 45 73 47 / 5 0 20 20

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.