Abeytas, NM Weather

: New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER:

Key messages

Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- River flooding lingers over parts of central and northern New Mexico through at least Friday.

- Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall over southern NM Thursday, shifting to southeast and eastern NM Thursday night into Friday.

- Confidence is increasing that a Pacific storm system will bring additional rainfall across western NM and the Four Corners region late this weekend into early next week. Snow is favored above 10,000 feet elevation.

Short term

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Mostly calm and tranquil conditions remain today across the Land of Enchantment. Similar to yesterday, a stray strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out across the Chaves and Lincoln County border this afternoon, with large hail being the primary threat. Outside of the storm threat, a few light breezes will persist, with high temperatures in the high 60s to mid 70s. Another batch of patchy fog and low clouds looks to develop across portions of eastern NM late tonight into tomorrow morning, primarily extending from Tucumcari to Clovis to Roswell and westward to Guadalupe and De Baca Counties.

Thursday starts a more active weather period across the state, first beginning with the remnants of current Tropical Storm Vance. The moisture becomes absorbed in the overall southwest flow aloft accompanied by a vorticity lobe. The first effects from the remnants will be the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms along the southern tier of our forecast area, including along the Sacramento Mountains. Rainfall products were examined thoroughly, including the HREF and REFS LPMM from the 12z runs. Each product showed a bullseye of 1-2.5" of rainfall within the South Central Mountains forecast zone, albeit at different locations. This led to an increase in confidence that localized flash flooding remains a threat across Ruidoso to Capitan to Carrizozo area on Thursday. However, questions still remained on exact location of heavy rainfall, and on the rainfall rates themselves. CAMs have started to show an increase in instability and lapse rates, favoring heavier rainfall rates, but given a lack of strong forcing and initial atmospheric moisture, it's currently hard to envision rainfall rates above 1"/hr especially for longer durations. Thus, while there is a risk of locally heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, the confidence is not high enough for a Flash Flood Watch at this time. Future shifts can evaluate the necessity of one should rainfall products align further.

The second effect of the remnants of Vance will be those remnants moving across southeast and eastern NM throughout Thursday night and into Friday. Current rainfall forecasts paint a line from roughly Clovis to Roswell, where east of that line has better chances for 1- 1.5" throughout the event, and west of the line sees lower rainfall amounts. Somewhat similar to Thursday afternoon, confidence in high rainfall rates is rather low for this system given very moist forecast soundings and little instability. So, while some locations may see rainfall amounts approaching 2" within 24 hours, the rates may be low enough to limit any potential flooding impacts. Nevertheless, folks should be cautious if driving through this event, especially at night when it is harder to see any flooding impacts.

Long term

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Through Friday evening and overnight, a second disturbance behind the tropical remnants look to spark scattered to numerous showers and storms across portions of western and central NM. Currently, highest rainfall amounts are focused in the higher terrain in Catron County, though these amounts currently sit under 1" as this disturbance is expected to be rather weak and short lived. A few scattered showers and storms look to remain Saturday across the northern mountains, though overall it looks to be a down day between systems.

Attention then shifts to Sunday and into the beginning of next week with the approach of two disturbances: one from the Pacific Northwest and one from off the coast of California. These two disturbances look to phase together at some point this weekend as they begin to move east and southeast across the Desert Southwest. How exactly they phase and move will have a fairly significant impact on the forecast for our area. Recent GFS runs have dragged the PNW low through WY/CO with the trough axis scraping the northern third of the state. The ECMWF runs have brought the PNW low into northern AZ and NM. The GFS runs correlate to slightly lower precipitation amounts across portions of western NM as the upslope flow component shifts dramatically given the orientation of the flow. The ECMWF runs favor a better setup for upslope flow and orographically enhanced precipitation amounts. Both solutions do favor widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms across western and central NM Sunday into Monday. While there are still the finer details to settle out, there looks to be at least decent chances for flooding impacts to return to areas that were impacted this past week. As it stands now, rainfall amounts are most likely to stand in the 0.5-1.5" range, with those higher amounts likely occurring near terrain with upslope flow. These amounts are currently less than what previously occurred across the area, however given the saturated nature of the soils, runoff is likely to develop quickly. Initially, this round of rain does not look to have very heavy rates, but a steady moderate rain may work to induce additional rounds of river flooding. On top of rain, snow levels look to remain around 10,000ft or so, and some of the higher peaks of the northern mountains may pick up a couple to several of inches of snow, especially the Tusas Mountains.

Once clarity comes through on the progression of the trough, this will dictate the weather going into the first week of November. Currently, troughing looks to set up in the south central Great Plains, which would put stiff north to northwest flow over the state. Surface winds would trend up in this scenario, and overall cooler temperatures and drier conditions would encompass the state.

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Batches of low clouds continue to erode away across southeast NM this hour, giving way to VFR conditions across the state this afternoon. An isolated storm or two just east of the Sacramento Mountains are possible this afternoon, primarily after 20z, with the primary threat being large hail. Outside of storms, generally light winds remain. Another batch of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility are likely to form across southeast NM early tomorrow morning, primarily from KSXU to KCVN to KROW.

Fire weather

Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days. A few light breezes are expected today, with the isolated chance of a storm across southeast NM, which may produce large hail. Precipitation chances return tomorrow across southern NM in the afternoon, then across southeast and eastern NM Thursday night into Friday. Locally heavy rainfall may cause isolated instances of flooding. After scattered showers and storms develop across western NM Friday evening into Saturday morning, a relative lull in active weather is expected through the day Saturday. More widespread precipitation returns Sunday into Monday across western NM, which may increase the chances of flash and river flooding across the area. A few to several inches of snow may fall across the northern mountains during this time as well, especially on the Tusas Mountains. Breezy conditions are favored to return on Monday, though humidity is expected to remain well above critical threshold (15%) to limit any fire weather concern.

Preliminary point temps/pops

Farmington::::::: . 40 68 46 67 / 0 0 5 20 Dulce::::::::: 31 66 36 65 / 0 0 10 10 Cuba::::::::: . 39 64 43 63 / 0 0 5 20 Gallup:::::::: .. 32 69 42 66 / 0 0 5 30 El Morro:::::::: 36 66 41 64 / 0 0 20 40 Grants:::::::: .. 34 67 43 65 / 0 0 20 40 Quemado:::::::: . 37 69 41 65 / 0 10 20 30 Magdalena::::::: .. 43 67 46 64 / 0 5 20 40 Datil::::::::: 39 64 42 62 / 0 20 30 40 Reserve:::::::: . 39 72 43 68 / 0 20 20 40 Glenwood:::::::: 43 77 48 72 / 0 30 30 50 Chama::::::::: 33 59 37 59 / 0 0 5 20 Los Alamos::::::: . 41 63 44 61 / 0 0 5 20 Pecos::::::::: 38 65 41 62 / 0 0 10 20 Cerro/Questa:::::: .. 37 61 41 60 / 0 0 0 10 Red River::::::: .. 30 54 34 53 / 0 0 0 10 Angel Fire::::::: . 24 59 26 57 / 0 0 5 20 Taos::::::::: . 31 64 36 63 / 0 0 0 10 Mora::::::::: . 34 63 38 59 / 0 0 10 30 Espanola:::::::: 38 69 43 68 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe:::::::: 41 65 45 63 / 0 0 10 10 Santa Fe Airport::::: . 39 66 44 64 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque Foothills::: .. 49 72 52 70 / 0 5 20 20 Albuquerque Heights:::: . 46 72 49 70 / 0 0 30 10 Albuquerque Valley:::: .. 45 74 49 72 / 0 0 30 10 Albuquerque West Mesa::: .. 46 71 50 69 / 0 0 20 10 Belen::::::::: 44 73 49 72 / 0 0 40 10 Bernalillo::::::: . 44 73 48 71 / 0 0 10 10 Bosque Farms:::::: .. 44 73 48 72 / 0 0 30 10 Corrales:::::::: 45 73 49 71 / 0 0 20 10 Los Lunas::::::: .. 44 73 49 72 / 0 0 30 10 Placitas:::::::: 45 69 50 67 / 0 5 5 20 Rio Rancho::::::: . 45 71 49 70 / 0 0 20 10 Socorro:::::::: . 50 76 52 73 / 0 10 30 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest::: 43 65 45 62 / 0 10 10 20 Tijeras:::::::: . 45 67 46 64 / 0 10 10 20 Edgewood:::::::: 39 67 42 65 / 0 10 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia::::: 36 69 41 66 / 0 10 20 10 Clines Corners:::::: 43 64 44 60 / 0 10 30 30 Mountainair::::::: 42 68 44 65 / 0 20 40 20 Gran Quivira:::::: .. 44 66 44 63 / 0 30 40 30 Carrizozo::::::: .. 50 69 50 66 / 0 60 50 30 Ruidoso:::::::: . 45 64 45 61 / 0 60 50 50 Capulin:::::::: . 39 64 43 57 / 0 0 5 30 Raton::::::::: 34 66 41 61 / 0 0 10 10 Springer:::::::: 32 68 41 61 / 0 0 10 10 Las Vegas::::::: .. 37 64 42 59 / 0 0 20 40 Clayton:::::::: . 46 70 50 59 / 0 0 5 40 Roy::::::::: .. 39 66 46 59 / 0 0 20 30 Conchas:::::::: . 48 73 51 64 / 0 5 40 40 Santa Rosa::::::: . 47 70 51 64 / 0 5 30 40 Tucumcari::::::: .. 50 74 51 64 / 0 5 50 50 Clovis:::::::: .. 53 74 53 65 / 0 5 60 70 Portales:::::::: 53 74 52 66 / 5 10 70 70 Fort Sumner::::::: 51 71 52 67 / 0 20 60 50 Roswell:::::::: . 53 72 53 69 / 5 30 80 40 Picacho:::::::: . 49 70 50 67 / 5 30 70 40 Elk::::::::: .. 47 70 47 67 / 0 40 80 50

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.