Chatham, NJ Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

Updated Aviation section for the 18Z TAFs.

Tweaked key message 1, added key message for next potential rain.

Key messages

1. Generally tranquil weather is expected to prevail through the early portion of next week.

2. Rain is expected to return late next week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Generally tranquil weather is expected to prevail through the early portion of next week.

A dry cold front has moveed through the region. High pressure is now building in behind it and will remain through the middle of next week with continuing mild and dry conditions expected.

Conditions have become breezy in the wake of this morning's cold frontal passage. Northwest winds 10-15 mph with gusts near 30 mph will continue. Temperatures will remain quite mild this afternoon though, as downsloping winds will allow for adiabatic warming and drying out of the airmass. High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 60s north of I-78 to the low to mid 70s for most other areas south of there.

Conditions will turn cooler again for the weekend. Lows tonight through Sunday night will be mainly in the low 30s to mid 40s. Widespread frost currently appears unlikely where the growing season continues, although we could see some frost development in the remaining PA and NJ counties. Highs will be coolest on Halloween, in the upper 50s to low 60s, under partly cloudy skies. Partly to mostly cloudy skies Sunday, but a bit milder with highs in the low to mid 60s.

Scattered to broken cloud cover will persist into early next week despite surface high pressure. Temperatures are expected to increase back to above normal values early next week, with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and milder overnights.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain is expected to return late next week.

The stretch of dry weather is expected to come to an end late next week as a period of rainfall is expected to move into the area as a storm system affects the region Thursday through at least Friday. Early in the week, a cold front will be moving across the central part of the country. The parent low moves across the Great Lakes and into Canada later in the week, while a secondary low develops and moves into the southern states by mid week. This low is expected to strengthen as it moves into the Mid Atlantic and northeast states later in the week, bringing our area a period of rain.

Aviation

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today: VFR. Northwest winds 10-15 kts with gusts near 25 kts. High confidence.

Tonight: VFR. NNW winds 5-10 kts. High confidence.

Saturday: VFR. NNW winds around 10 kts. High confidence.

Outlook:

Saturday night through Wednesday: VFR. No significant weather.

Marine

Northwest winds will increase to 15-20 kts in the wake of a cold front moving offshore, with gusts of 25-30 kts developing by late afternoon and evening. While the greatest likelihood of of 25-30 kt gusts is still across the northern New Jersey coast, there is increasing potential for gusts near 25 kts farther south for a few hours on either side of sunset as surface temperatures cool and allow for better mixing. Seas will also increase to around 3-5 feet.

The Small Craft Advisory was expanded to include all Atlantic coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware, and Delaware Bay, which is in effect from 2 PM today through 2 AM Saturday.

Northerly winds and seas will then lessen overnight, with northwest winds staying below 20 kts on Saturday with fair weather.

Outlook:

Saturday night through Tuesday: No marine hazards expected. Fair weather.

Wednesday: Seas may reach low-end Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Watches, warnings and advisories

PA: None. NJ: None. DE: None. MD: None. MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431- 450>455.