Cairo, NE Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas.

Day one

Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Days two through seven

Sunday through Friday.

Late Sunday night through Monday evening, thunderstorm chances return to our entire area.

Gusty to strong southerly winds are possible during the day on Monday. Monday night and into the day on Tuesday, winds increase and shift to the north, with gusts of 35 to 50 mph possible.

More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Key messages

- Scattered, off and on showers possible throughout the day, but a true washout is not expected.

- A deep trough/low move into the area Sunday night through Tuesday bringing widespread chances for showers/storms to the area.

- Gusty-strong winds likely behind the departing low on Tuesday with northerly winds gusting 35-45+mph.

Update

Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Widespread stratus currently resides over the area with temperatures currently sitting in the upper 50s to low 60s. A weak disturbance is moving through the Plains, aiding the development of scattered showers which are gradually lifting into the area. These showers are expected to become more widespread throughout the daytime hours today. Rain is not expected to be constant today, rather it will be off and on throughout the day, with no true period of dry/wet weather. Highs today will be in the mid 50s (west) to low 60s (east). Breezy winds are expected throughout the day, gusting 20- 30mph. Those with Halloween/Trick-Or-Treat activities this evening should be prepared for periods of light rain, though it doesn't look to be a complete washout. Rain showers continue into the overnight hours, but gradually come to an end from southwest to northeast, ending for most areas by sunrise. While the forecast is currently dry, can't completely rule out a lingering shower during the day, but overall most areas are favored to remain dry. Skies remain cloudy throughout the day on Sunday, keeping highs in the upper 50s to 60s. Winds remain breezy during the day, gusting 20-30mph.

Sunday night into early next week a deep trough and associated surface low begin to move out of the Rockies and into the Plains. This system brings the next chance for widespread rain to the area. The first round of rain arrives late sunday night/Monday morning, along and north of a warm front lifting across the area. As the center of the surface low swings across Nebraska during the daytime hours, another round of scattered showers/storms is favored to develop along the cold front. Should greater instability advect into the area, a few stronger storms could be realized along this front. At this time, the current day 3 SPC outlook placing the marginal/slight risk just southeast of the forecast area seems reasonable. Given the strong/deep surface low gusty/strong winds are expected on Monday and especially on Tuesday behind the departing surface low where northerly winds gusting 35-45+mph are possible. Seasonable-seaonably cool weather is expected behind the low next week, with highs in the 50s to low 60s. &&

Discussion

Issued at 414 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS/PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES:

As evidenced by the fairly lengthly list of KEY MESSAGES above, our weather pattern remains quite active. On a positive note, although bringing more beneficial rain (at least longer term beneficial) with most of our forecast area (CWA) very generally expected to receive at least 1-2" of rain between tonight and Tuesday, in the shorter-term this pattern is obviously wreaking havoc for those trying to wrap up/continue harvest. For those folks, HOPEFULLY the latter half of next week continues to maintain its current MOSTLY dry look.

As for key forecast uncertainties:

- Of note in the very short term: Will at least patchy dense fog impact our northern counties (mainly north of I-80) overnight?

- Looking into early next week: certainly the "highlight" of the entire 7-day forecast right now is to what degree we are impacted by the large-scale/strong/deep low pressure system mainly Sunday night-Tuesday. While widespread rain and moderately-strong winds (both ahead of and behind it) are looking increasingly likely, what is still a SOMEWHAT- CONCERNING UNKNOWN is whether (or not) we see a round of strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms along the advancing cold front/surface low pressure system Monday afternoon-early evening? At this time, various models (ECMWF/GFS/NAM) suggest that both instability and perhaps to some degree deep-layer shear could be on the lower-end of the spectrum for any kind of "higher end" severe storm threat, but these trends bear close watching. At least for now, SPC has kept it's 15 percent "slight risk equivalent" area slightly south-southeast of our CWA on the latest Day 4 (Monday) severe storm outlook, but tools such as CSU machine learning severe probs currently paint at least low chances within primarily the eastern half of our CWA. Obviously these details will surely come into better focus over the weekend and Monday nears.

-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (through Fri. Nov. 6):

- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SITUATION AS OF 330 PM: Overall no big surprises today. In short, the morning saw a smattering of weak thunderstorms mainly in our far east-central counties, along with some dense fog in southwesterly counties. In the wake of these things, much of the late-morning through mid-afternoon was simply continued cloudy under fairly widespread low stratus. However, especially within the last hour another round of very spotty showers/perhaps a few rumbles of thunder have started affecting mainly part of our KS zones, as water vapor satellite/short-term model data confirm that the leading edge of lift is arriving from the next/incoming upper wave lifting our way out of the Southern High Plains/western KS area. At the surface, a weak warm front is evident lifting very slowly north through our KS zones, with winds to its south trying to turn more southerly with time, while most of our CWA is reporting light (5-10 MPH) southeast winds north of the boundary. High temps on track to top out 60s most areas, but ranging from upper 50s far north (Ord area) to low 70s far southeast (Thayer/Mitchell/Jewell counties).

- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: Sticking to the basics: High confidence in continued widespread stratus clouds with some patchy drizzle almost anywhere, with at least isolated-scattered showers/weak thunderstorms also lifting north into more of our area and possible almost anywhere. Certainly the MAIN CONCERN overnight is whether fog becomes dense enough to warrant a possible Advisory: which would seem most favored to occur within our Nebraska counties along/especially north of I-80. Given only medium confidence in truly widespread/truly dense fog development, we've opted to hold off for now on any formal Advisory, but fog is obviously highlighted as a possible concern here and in our Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID). Breezes overnight turn more southerly as the warm front lifts north.

- SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: These 24 hours are simply best described as "a varied mix of dry weather interspersed with passing showers". It's just impossible to truly guarantee any particular area to remain dry more than a few hours at a time, given persistent weak lift from the upper wave lifting east-northeast through our region. Put another way, trick-or-treaters should be ready for some passing (mainly light) rain showers, just in case. Compared to today, south- southeast winds will be a little breezier, with sustained speeds commonly 10-15 MPH and gusts up to around 20 MPH. High temps were largely unchanged with most areas a few degrees either side of 60 degrees, while lows Saturday night were nudged up slightly to mainly low-mid 50s given widespread clouds.

- SUNDAY DAYTIME: Although we cannot totally rule out some very spotty showers or patchy drizzle, for the most part this should be a brief "dry break" in between systems. With continued plentiful clouds, temps will only climb very slightly at best, with most areas aimed low-mid 60s.

- SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT: See above for various references to this ~ 60 hour time frame, as a large-scale/strong upper level trough and associated surface low crosses the Central Plains. Possible hazards include strong (maybe severe?) thunderstorms and moderately-strong winds. Temperature-wise, highs mainly 60s-70s Monday, then only 50s Tuesday behind the cold front.

- WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: While especially those trying to finish/continue harvest really need to "cheer" for this to remain a dry/mostly dry stretch (and confidence is high that it WILL BE mostly dry), there are some hints that a weak wave or two could bring pesky shower chances from time to time. High temps mainly 50s.

Aviation

Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions give way to MVFR conditions today and IFR late in the TAF period. VFR stratus currently resides over the area behind a warm front. Sometime during the late morning-afternoon, an MVFR stratus deck moves from the west, first impacting KEAR with KGRI favored to be on the edge of the stratus deck. Due to this, have prevailing MVFR CIGs at KEAR, and used PROB30 groups to highlight the potential for KGRI to bounce between VFR and MVFR this afternoon. After sunset CIGs drop to low MVFR. After midnight, CIGs are favored to drop to IFR with potential for sub-VFR fog. For now, kept VIS 6SM, but it's plausible VIS could drop to IFR or lower. Scattered showers are possible throughout the TAF period, but look to remain light enough to not impact VIS.

Southerly winds increase late this morning with gusts of 20-25kts throughout the afternoon. Winds drop off after sunset with gusts below 15kts.

Watches, warnings and advisories

NE: None. KS: None.