Grace City, ND Weather

Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn- Mercer-Oliver-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark- Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Grant-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh- Dickey-Central and Southern Ward/Minot Area-Western McLean- Eastern McLean-Western Morton-Eastern Morton-Western Sioux- Eastern Sioux- 130 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 /1230 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

Day one: Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Days two through seven: Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Spotter information statement

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard procedures, including through our social media accounts.

Key messages

- Dense fog could develop in southwest, far south central, far northwest, and north central North Dakota overnight into Friday morning.

- Near normal temperatures through Friday, becoming above normal this weekend into early next week.

- Low chances (20 to 30 percent) for light rain or drizzle Friday night through Saturday, followed by medium to high chances (50 to 80 percent) for rain Sunday night through Monday night, possibly lasting into Tuesday.

Update

Issued at 127 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Dense fog is developing in far northwest and far southwest North Dakota. Surface observations and webcams do not yet indicate widespread dense fog, but will need to monitor. Otherwise, the forecast remains in good shape. Current conditions and trends were blended in for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 915 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Variable cloudiness across western and central ND this evening. Any precipitation has moved out of the area or ended. Temperatures were mainly in the 30s to lower 40s. No updates needed at this time.

Cams have backed off/slowed down with the extent of stratus/fog in the southwest and far south central late tonight, but will keep a mention of fog in the forecast for now.

UPDATE Issued at 551 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Isolated shower activity continues to track east, exiting the James River Valley. Very light reflectivities also continue along the International Border and likely anything reaching the ground would be a sprinkle. Some low VFR cloudiness associated with the activity over the JRV, and some lower clouds in the far northwest. Otherwise, expect mainly mid and high clouds under partly cloudy skies this evening. No changes to the going forecast at this time.

Discussion

Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Currently, strong to moderate zonal flow aloft over the Northern Plains with broad ridging from the Central Plains back northwest across the Rockies. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure extends from southern Saskatchewan southeast into western Minnesota. A few light showers continue across the southern James River Valley into southeastern areas of the state, associated with an area of low/mid level frontogensis.

Models continue to suggest fog redeveloping into parts of southwest and south central ND later tonight, but have trended south with the aerial placement last few runs. Will maintain in the forecast for now.

Broad ridging aloft amplifies and develops east for the upcoming weekend, trending temperatures warmer with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s Sat and Sun. At the same time, boundary layer moisture increases thanks to a southerly mid level flow transporting 50+ degree Td values. With embedded disturbances moving through the flow aloft, sky cover will be robust along with a chances for light showers/drizzle both days.

Deep upper level low pressure off the West Coast within long wave troughing aloft will swing inland Sunday, then crosses the Rockies and moves into the Great Plains Sunday night into Monday. Ensembles and NBM continue to favor medium to high chances for rain west Sunday night and area wide for Monday/Mon night, with precipitation chances slowly decreasing Tuesday from west to east as the main forcing departs to our east. Might see chances linger longer on Tuesday depending the degree of wrap around that occurs. QPF amounts are forecast to range from around a quarter inch, with some area up to half an inch possible. Precip type will be all liquid with this event.

Thereafter, ensembles suggest lots of uncertainty after Tuesday, with near normal temperatures expected for now in the 40s and 50s and lows cooling to subfreezing by the middle of next week. Precip chances will be heavily dependent on any upper level feature moving through the region, and right now the forecast is dry both Wed and Thu.

Aviation

Issued at 127 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Dense fog is possible across parts of western and central North Dakota tonight through Friday morning, but is unlikely to impact any TAF sites. There is a low chance that MVFR/IFR ceilings could move over KDIK early Friday morning. VFR conditions are generally otherwise expected through Friday afternoon, although some pockets of MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out. MVFR ceilings are then forecast to become more common late Friday evening through Friday night. Expect easterly winds through the forecast period, with speeds around 5-10 kts through Friday morning increasing to 10-15 kts Friday afternoon.

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.