Erwin, NC Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

* Confidence in the evolution of the weather pattern and the chance of any impactful rain next week continues to decrease.

Key messages

As of 250 AM Saturday:

1) Seasonable temperatures, dry weather and an increase in cloudiness is expected this weekend.

2) While the next best chance of rain will be mid to late next week, forecast confidence in specific timing and amounts remains low.

Discussion

As of 250 AM Saturday:

KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonable temperatures, dry weather and an increase in cloudiness is expected this weekend.

The mid and upper level flow will become more southwesterly and somewhat perturbed over the weekend resulting in increasing moisture and periods of mid and high cloudiness mixed with some sunshine. Despite the increasing moisture aloft, dry conditions are expected with a stable and dry airmass near the surface. A surge of cooler and drier air will continue to spread southward across central NC this morning behind a cold front that was now pushing into SC and GA. Low level thickness values forecast for 12Z this morning will range between 1350 and 1365m compared to the 1380 to 1385m range on Friday morning. This 15 to 20m drop in thickness values along with periods of high cloudiness will result in highs of 64 north to 71 south which is within a few degrees of the average high for this time of year. With little change in airmass and conditions, highs on Sunday will be very similar todays. Lows on Saturday and Sunday night will range in the 40s which is near to about 5 degrees above average.

KEY MESSAGE 2: While the next best chance of rain will be mid to late next week, forecast confidence in specific timing and amounts remains low.

The primary driver in our next precipitation chances remains the slowly progressive low pressure system over the central CONUS and Mississippi Valley midweek and how it evolves into the late week period. Forecast confidence remains below-normal for this time range as model guidance varies greatly on a wide variety of solutions that will impact the sensible weather across the Carolinas.

Cluster analysis of the leading two solutions from the earlier 12z guidance is lining up with the trend within 18z ensemble guidance favoring a northeast lift of low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes region. If this trend continues and remains void the splitting mid/upper-lvl low scenario, forcing for ascent for meaningful precipitation may be extremely limited over the Carolinas. These solutions still do produce light rain totals over the Mid-Atlantic and into the Carolinas, but reasonable high-end amounts struggle to exceed 0.5" in 24 hours for the northern/eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain where moderate to extreme drought persists.

Aviation

As of 140 AM Saturday:

24 hour TAF period: High confidence of VFR conditions across the area during the 24 hour TAF period.

Increasing high and mid level moisture will result in increasing and thickening high-level cirrus clouds through the period with some mid clouds arriving late. CIGS will remain above 15kft through the TAF period.

A cold front will push south of the area early this morning with a north to northeasterly wind spreading across the area at 5 to 10 kts. A strengthening low level jet just atop the boundary layer may briefly mix to the surface and result in some brief gustiness to around 20kts before daybreak. This stronger flow will also result in some marginal LLWS but magnitudes are low enough to omit it from the TAFs. As the stable boundary layer collapses and mixing commences, a few hours of gusty winds up to 18 kts is possible during the mid morning, otherwise northeast winds at around 10kts are expected this afternoon with light northeast winds after sunset.

Outlook: VFR conditions should dominate through the middle of the upcoming work week with a small chance of some daybreak stratus/fog across eastern locations on Wednesday morning. -Blaes

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.