Castalia, NC Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

Day one

Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven

Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

* Widespread measurable rain chances continue to decrease for Sun night into Mon, although light, non-measurable rain remains possible as widespread cloud cover increases.

Key messages

As of 210 AM Thursday:

1) Another morning of patchy fog is expected, although coverage and intensity is not expected to be as great today as yesterday. Friday will likely be the warmest out of the next seven days.

2) Very light, non-accumulating rain, is possible Sun night into Mon, but better chance for accumulating rainfall remains in the mid/late next week period.

Discussion

As of 210 AM Thursday:

KEY MESSAGE 1: Another morning of patchy fog is expected, although coverage and intensity is not expected to be as great today as yesterday. Friday will likely be the warmest out of the next seven days.

Some patchy fog is expected to develop again. However, compared to yesterday, when an area of low clouds moved from the Coastal Plain into the central portion of the state along with reduced visibilities, there have been passing mid level clouds through much of the night. These mid level clouds should help to limit the overall coverage of fog that occurs in the next few hours. With drier air moving into the region, any clouds/fog that do develop around sunrise should clear out more quickly, with mostly sunny skies by the afternoon.

Normal high temperatures are around 70 degrees this time of year, and highs will run slightly above normal, with all locations expected to be in the 70s. Friday appears likely to be the warmest day out of the next seven, with highs between 78 and 83 degrees. A cold front moving through Friday night should bring highs back into the 60s and 70s for Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Very light, non-accumulating rain, is possible Sun night into Mon, but better chance for accumulating rainfall remains in the mid/late next week period.

The chance for measurable rainfall continues to decrease for the Sun night into Mon timeframe. Although, confidence is medium-high on increasing widespread cloud cover with some very light rain possible falling out of mid-level cloud bases. Moisture associated with Tropical Cyclone Vance is expected to lift through southwest Mexico and into the Four Corners and Southern Plains region Fri before shifting eastward into the Southeast Sat into Sun and perhaps Carolinas Sun night into Mon. The mid/upper-lvl wave, which will be more pronounced as it shifts through the Southern Plains, will shear out substantially as it approaches the Southeast and Carolinas, with mostly convectively modified waves providing deeper forcing accompanying the sharp, fast-moving upper trough. Any falling precip will have to overcome drier mid/low-lvl air from a reinforcing dry cold front that will provide renewed high pressure persisting over the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas this weekend. The GFS and its ensemble suite continues to come in line with most other guidance as it shunts the better QPF signal farther south with only light accumulations in NC Sun night into Tues night.

The better signal for measurable rainfall continues to be sometime within the Wed into Fri night timeframe as a strong mid/upper low shifts from the West Coast on Sun into the Central Plains and MS Valley into the mid-week timeframe. How and when this feature will develop is understandably uncertain as the driving features will not phase until this weekend.

Aviation

As of 130 AM Thursday:

TAF period: While all terminals are expected to have VFR conditions at 06Z, restrictions are likely to develop shortly before sunrise. The 06Z TAF package is a little bit more optimistic for conditions than the 00Z TAF package, primarily as a result of the passing mid level clouds which should help to reduce the amount of radiational cooling that occurs at the surface. However, LIFR ceilings are still in the forecast at all terminals. By mid-morning, all terminals should return to VFR conditions, with skies continuing to scatter out through the day. The wind should be 5 kt or less with a northerly component.

Outlook: Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out late tonight. Otherwise, dry VFR conditions are forecast through at least Sunday, with a minimal chance of a shower Sunday night and Monday.

Watches, warnings and advisories

None.