Hermanville, MS Weather

: New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION:

Key messages

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area this weekend. Rain may disrupt outdoor plans Saturday evening in some areas.

- The chance for showers and thunderstorms is increasing Tuesday into Wednesday. We are monitoring potential for some storms to be strong to severe.

Mesoscale update

Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Rest of tonight:

The last dry evening is on tap across the region. GOES East/RAP and upper air observations indicate shortwave digging into central to south-central TX, with continued moist isentropic ascent spreading across the Gulf Coast. Combined with precipitable water climbing (PWs up to 1.3 inches climbing to around 1.5 inches by daybreak Saturday), widespread overcast cloud deck will remain over the Gulf Coast states. Cannot rule out a rogue rain shower in northeast LA into extreme southeast AR just before daybreak, but majority of the rain chances hold off until the day Saturday. For sensible weather, this pattern does not support favorable radiational cooling and seasonably warm lows are on tap, 12F to 18F above (59F to 65F). Updates are out. /DC/

Discussion

Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Tonight through Sunday:

Cloud cover will continue to increase across our CWA later tonight thanks to increasing mid level moisture. Near term guidance continues to show an upper shortwave in Texas continue to push eastward towards the Mid MS Valley. Looking ahead into the overnight period, weather conditions will remain quiet. Nighttime temperatures will dip into the upper 50s/low 60s areawide. As we head into early Saturday morning, scattered light showers will begin to occur mainly west of I-55. Although HREF fog guidance is beginning to show low probabilities (less than 5%) of patchy fog mainly across portions of southeast AR and all of our northeast LA parishes, there is not enough support from the REFS to suggest widespread fog potential. Fog graphics will not be introduced at this time given the low probability of fog development highlighted by HREF dense fog guidance, however shallow patchy fog will be possible particularly after dawn.

Heading into late Saturday morning, scattered light convection will spread across the whole area. Light rain showers will continue across the area Saturday afternoon and we may see enough instability for a few heavier showers or a thunderstorm. Scattered convection will continue through Sunday, tapering off Sunday evening. No severe weather is expected. Taking a quick glance at the rainfall totals, most of our area will see rain totals below a half inch, some localized areas could see totals over one inch. With that in mind, some brief heavy downpours cannot be ruled out for a few areas. Showers will taper off Sunday evening. Rain may disrupt Halloween outdoor plans in some areas Saturday evening, but many areas will remain dry during peak candy hunting time. Just be sure to keep a close eye on the weather before venturing out, and have a backup plan if needed. /CR/

Monday through Friday:

The forecast messaging for the long term period remains the same with no major changes made. Long term guidance continues to show an upper trough deepening across the central CONUS to start off the new work week. As this trough continues to deepen across the central CONUS, a organized cold front from the Southern Plains will push east across our CWA Tuesday into Wednesday. Taking a quick look at the parameters, strong deep layer shear will accompany this system. Furthermore, 0-3 km bulk shear magnitudes are still pushing into the 30-50 kt range, though guidance is still showing shear vectors being largely boundary-parallel. Timing in guidance over the past few days still continues to be mostly overnight, which would limit instability. However, there remains some potential for gusty winds if there is sufficient instability and storms become oriented efficiently with low level shear vectors. Forecast confidence at this point is still low given that this event is still several days away. Please continue to monitor this system in the coming days.

With the upper low cutting off into more of a slow moving bowling ball type look, clouds may linger behind this system into Wednesday and Thursday, but the chance for substantial rain will drop off quickly behind the front Wednesday. Temps will see a return to cooler mornings and milder days. A few scattered showers will be possible across parts of the area by Thursday. Quiet weather conditions will prevail across the area heading into Friday. /CR/

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR flight categories under overcast cirro/alto stratus deck will persist through the 00Z TAF period. Some scattered SHRA cannot be ruled out Saturday, with onset likely after 31/20-21Z Saturday. During that time, MVFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR visibility are possible, especially in areas of increased coverage of SHRA. /DC/

Preliminary point temps/pops

Jackson 64 80 64 77 / 0 20 50 70 Meridian 61 78 61 73 / 0 30 50 70 Vicksburg 63 79 63 80 / 0 20 50 60 Hattiesburg 63 83 64 79 / 0 40 40 60 Natchez 64 82 65 81 / 0 20 50 60 Greenville 63 77 63 76 / 0 20 60 70 Greenwood 61 78 61 74 / 10 20 70 70

Watches, warnings and advisories

MS: None. LA: None. AR: None.