Derma, MS Weather

: New AVIATION:

Key messages

Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Elevated fire weather concerns will continue today amid low relative humidity and dry fuels.

- Areawide rain chances return late Friday and persist through the Halloween weekend.

Discussion

(Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1012 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Surface high pressure centered over the Appalachians will maintain its dominance over the Mid-South today and Friday. A ridge currently centered over eastern Nebraska and Kansas will amplify a bit over the next 24 hours in response to a deepening trough off the West Coast. The ridge will begin to shift closer to the Mississippi River Valley late today and tonight, becoming centered over the Mid-South by Friday afternoon. This feature will reinforce the already dry conditions over the Middle Mississippi River Valley and boost afternoon highs by a degree or two. Dewpoints may begin to trend slightly higher Friday afternoon over east Arkansas and north Mississippi as southerly flow strengthens, but overall, another clear and dry day is expected. NBM continues to favor higher dew points this afternoon and Friday. Leaned toward a drier solution resulting in afternoon RH's in the 30s to low 40s. The higher dewpoints look more favorable in east Arkansas and north Mississippi Friday afternoon while west Tennessee remains drier. Elevated fire danger will continue across the region today and Friday. Expect high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s today, and in the low 80s Friday as the aforementioned ridge shifts over the area.

We will begin to notice a pattern change late Friday as the surface high to our east weakens and another develops over Michigan. South winds will strengthen over the lower and middle Mississippi River Valley finally bringing and end to our Fire Weather concerns. A ridge will build over the northern Plains while a southern stream trough shifts out of the Southern Plains. This trough will become negatively tilted early Saturday and shift over northern Illinois/Indiana during the afternoon hours. Dynamic support for thunderstorms looks minimal, with a low QPF/steady rainfall event anticipated. Portions of northeast Mississippi may see over three quarters of an inch Saturday into Sunday, but most of the region can expect less than one half of an inch, lowest in northeast Arkansas.

Southwesterly flow will gradually turn westerly Sunday. A weak ridge ahead of a deepening Colorado Low will shift over the region Sunday resulting in lighter and less widespread precipitation and also a decrease in the chance of a thunderstorm.

Next week, the Colorado Low will slowly shift over the Plains early in the week, and approach the middle to lower Mississippi River Valley Wednesday into Thursday. Timing and exact location of the low is quite uncertain at this time, but a wetter pattern is expected for most of the work week. At this time, NBM favors 1-2 inches of rain across most of the Midsouth. Temperatures will remain seasonable warm early in the week, and trend only slightly cooler after midweek.

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Light south/southeast winds and VFR will continue through the next 30 hours, as dry continental surface high pressure remains centered east of the area.

Fire weather

Issued at 1012 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue tomorrow and Friday A dry air mass remains over the region with afternoon relative humidity values falling to at or just below 30 percent. In addition, 10-hour fuel moisture content values sit around 10 percent. Therefore, daily Rangeland Fire Danger Statements are expected over the next 2 - 3 days. Fortunately 20-foot winds will remain at or below 10 mph, precluding higher fire danger.

Wetting rains are forecast to return to the region this weekend with the most beneficial rains falling over northern Mississippi and west Tennessee. Additional rainfall chances are expected into the middle of next week where current rainfall accumulation forecasts call for 1.00" - 2.00" areawide between next Monday and Wednesday.

Watches, warnings and advisories

AR: None. MO: None. MS: None. TN: None.