Dandan, MP Weather

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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 549 AM ChST Thu Oct 29 2026

.Marianas Update: The Marianas remain under a band of converging air flowing into Super Typhoon In-fa. This is leaving the islands mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms this morning. The clouds are expected to disappear at Tinian and Saipan over the morning hours, so the mostly sunny forecast for Tinian and Saipan looked good.

.Marine: Although Super Typhoon In-fa is expected to pass north of the marine forecast zones, high swells will be radiating down. At this time we're stopping just short of a Hazardous Seas Warning (or Watch), and going with a Marine Weather Statement. We'll probably switch over to a Small Craft Advisory or, if appropriate, a Hazardous Seas product later today. Winds could reach Small Craft Advisory criteria in Saipan Waters, but Tinian Waters would be dubious. And Guam and Rota Waters aren't going to make it there.

.Tropical Systems: At 400 AM, Super Typhoon In-fa was centered near 15.6N and 156.3E, which is about 715 miles east-southeast of Pagan. In-fa was moving west-northwest at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. In-fa is expected to maintain this general course with an increase in forward speed. This general forecast track will take In-fa close to Pagan and/or Agrihan Friday afternoon or evening.

Near the center, seas could approach 50 feet, and winds could be 110 to 140 mph with gusts to 180 mph. Stay away from these dangerous winds if at all possible.

.Eastern Micronesia Update: Convergence to the south of Super Typhoon In-fa will continue to promote lower-end scattered showers at Pohnpei through at least tonight. Gentle to moderate southwest winds today will become light southerlies tonight, before becoming light to gentle northerlies by late on Friday at Pohnpei. Isolated showers will generally prevail at Kosrae for the next couple of days. Light and variable winds will continue through tonight at Kosrae, before becoming light to gentle northerlies by late on Friday. Isolated to low-end scattered showers will continue through Friday at Majuro. Light to gentle north to northwest winds will continue for the next couple of days at Majuro. Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet at all forecast points will drop a foot or so through Friday night.

.Western Micronesia Update: Drier weather is expected at both Palau and Yap through Friday with shower chances topping out around 20 percent. Winds will remain light to gentle at both locations. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected at Chuuk through tonight with gentle to moderate west to southwest winds. Combined seas of 5 to 6 feet at Chuuk will continue through tonight and drop a foot or so on Friday. Seas of 3 to 5 feet will continue through Friday at Yap and Palau.

.Prev discussion: /issued 542 PM ChST Wed Oct 28 2026/

Marianas Synopsis: Light and variable winds are visible over Guam and Rota with moderate easterlies over Tinian and Saipan. Radar and satellite imagery indicate scattered showers for Tinian and Saipan, and island effect showers for Guam and Rota. Model and observations indicate combined seas of 4 to 7 feet.

Discussion: A long elongated trough connecting all the way into Typhoon In-fa has weakened slightly from last night and is starting to drift south. This feature is now expected to bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to Tinian and Saipan early tonight, Rota all night, and Guam by late tonight. Isolated showers will return once the trough has passed each island. Isolated showers will likely continue for much of the forecast period for Guam and Rota. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may return Friday for Tinian and Saipan due to slightly closer proximity to In-fa as passes somewhere through the far northern CNMI between Sarigan and Maug. Showers for Tinian and Saipan will likely return to isolated for the rest of the forecast period by Saturday. Current Typhoon In-Fa is expected to make it's closest point of approach midday Friday. Breezy conditions are possible for Tinian and Saipan Friday with frequent gusts of 30 mph, particularly in thunderstorms. This situation will continue to be monitored closely for any potential changes. See the "Tropical Systems" section for more details.

Marine: Gentle northeast winds will prevail across Tinian and Saipan through at least tonight, while light winds prevail over Rota and Guam. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible for Tinian and Saipan early tonight, all night over Rota, and late tonight for Guam as a trough shifts south over the islands. Therefore, there is moderate risk of lightning tonight for all islands.There will be a moderate risk of rip currents through the weekend for north- and east-facing reefs due to a primary east- northeast swell. Combined seas are expected to waver between 5 and 7 feet through Thursday. By late Thursday, seas are expected to increase significantly and become hazardous ahead of Typhoon In- Fa, which is anticipated to pass somewhere through the far northern CNMI between Sarigan and Maug island. Widespread seas of 11 to 14 feet are expected for Tinian and Saipan. Seas of 10+ feet are also possible for Guam and Rota.

Tropical Systems: At 100 PM ChST, the center of Typhoon In-fa was located near 15.0N 159.3E, or 560 miles north of Pohnpei, 910 miles east of Alamagan, or about 975 miles east of Guam. Himawari visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows Typhoon In-fa with a well-developed eye around 40 miles in width, with a burst of convection along the west to southwest edges of the eyewall. The outer rainbands are somewhat patchy and discontinuous, displaced around 350 to 500 miles from the center to the southwest, south, and north. In-fa remains a Category 4 typhoon with maximum sustained winds at 140 mph, and is expected to intensify tonight, possibly becoming a super typhoon by midnight with maximum winds forecast to increase to 150 mph. Currently, In-fa is moving west-northwest at around 10 mph. It is expected to maintain this general course with an increase in forward speed through Friday morning as it makes a northwest turn toward the far northern Marianas.

The latest forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center shows the center of In-fa tracking close to or over Agrihan Friday night as it turns slightly toward the northwest. As In-fa approaches the far northern Marianas, the threat of destructive winds will increase through Friday evening, with the onset of damaging winds beginning as early as Friday afternoon. The current forecast track suggests that the threat for destructive typhoon-force winds will be highest for Agrihan and Pagan close to the center of Typhoon In-fa, but keep informed of possible changes to the forecast location of the center. A Typhoon Watch is currently in effect for the islands of Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan in the northern CNMI.

For more information on Typhoon In-fa, please refer to bulletins from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN31 PGTW and from the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ31 PGUM.

Eastern Micronesia: Despite Typhoon In-fa developing just north of the region, fairly quiet conditions prevail across much of eastern Micronesia this afternoon. Kosrae and Majuro are situated within a broad surface ridge that is set up behind In-fa. Pohnpei can expect scattered showers over the next day or so as convergent westerlies to the south of In-fa's passage set up nearby, but so far this afternoon, most of the showers remain south of the island. Isolated showers will continue near Majuro through Thursday night, increasing to scattered Friday as the broad convergence boundary, and associated showers to its east, gradually shift westward into the area.

Recent buoy and altimetry data show combined seas of 4 to 6 feet, comprised of a primary north to northeast swell and secondary southeast swell. Winds will be light to moderate throughout the forecast period, decreasing to mostly light by early next week as a broad, weak, elongated trough sets up across the area.

Western Micronesia: Light to gentle winds will persist through the forecast period, which could allow island convection to develop from time to time at Palau during the late morning into afternoon hours. Yap, which typically doesn't see the "string and tail" of convection develop, had island convection today along western sides of the island, before tailing off in coverage over the open waters. This was due to a favorable 210 degrees wind direction aligning with the ~400-500 foot hills just north-northeast of the airport, which provided just enough orographic lift for the light, southwest ocean breeze to act on. With Typhoon In-fa heading towards the far northern CNMI, this wind direction is expected to hold for another day or two, which may allow for Yap to see additional island convection develop. However, spatial coverage of island convection at either location is sufficiently small enough to keep isolated shower coverage/20 percent probabilities, but this will be monitored for more robust development.

Otherwise, isolated showers under light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 feet may increase a foot Friday into Saturday, as a north to northeasterly swell from In-fa arrives.

Watches, warnings and advisories

GU: None. MP: None. Marianas Waters: None.