Birch Tree, MO Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

Day one

Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected:

Slight lightning risk.

DISCUSSION:

A few stray thunderstorms will be possible mainly along and north of Highway 54 and west of Highway 65 this afternoon into early this evening. Lightning will be the main risk with any storm that is able to develop.

Days two through seven

Saturday through Thursday.

Gusty southerly winds will develop across the area on Monday. The strongest winds will generally occur along and west of Highway 65, with gusts up to 30 to 40 mph possible at times.

There is a 90 to 95 percent chance for a widespread band of rain to move across the area Monday night through Tuesday. A low-end severe potential may develop with this system, but uncertainty remains.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format: along with other weather: hydrological and climate information: at http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Key messages

- Scattered light showers (30-70% chance) at times across portions of the area from this afternoon into Sunday. Periods of dry time accompany this system, with only light rainfall amounts.

- 15-25 mph southerly winds with gusts up to 30-40 mph are expected on Monday. The strongest winds will generally occur along and west of Highway 65. Very low probability (<10%) for a Wind Advisory to be issued.

- 90-95% chance for a widespread band of rain to move across the area Monday night through Tuesday. Monitoring a low-end potential for severe weather with this system.

Short term

Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A misleading picture of the atmosphere is present on current mid-level water vapor imagery. The imagery suggests moisture being widespread across almost the entire CONUS, with an enhanced corridor across the central Plains ahead of a low- amplitude shortwave trough in southern Texas. Our 12Z balloon data, however, shows this moisture largely above 400 mb, with a socket of very dry air still in place between 850 and 400 mb. A bit further west of here, showers are noted on radar as positive vorticity advection ahead of the shortwave lifts into Oklahoma/Kansas. At the surface, an east-west oriented frontal boundary is analyzed across central Kansas/Missouri.

Light showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm through Sunday:

This Afternoon and Evening:

Scattered showers are expected to continue west of Highway 65 this afternoon and evening as the shortwave lifts northward. Since the energy is rooted well above the low-levels, without any surface low development due to the lack of supplemental jet streak forcing, rainfall is expected to be light and scattered. However, as the energy overlaps with the surface front across central Missouri/Kansas, ~500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE from our 12Z balloon gives some indication that more convective precipitation could develop along the front (15-40% chance). This would bring the chance for more moderate rainfall and a few lightning strikes under any storm that develops. With the front just barely scraping our northwest counties, the chance for thunder in our CWA is low, within a narrow window this afternoon and evening before the shortwave lifts the front back to the north.

Halloween Morning:

Residual light rain and sprinkles are still possible overnight as the shortwave continues its trek northward, but any appreciable rainfall is of very low potential (<15% chance).

Once the shortwave exits northward, negative vorticity advection behind the wave will provide subsidence and a break in rain chances across our CWA from Saturday morning through at least 3-5 PM.

Trick or Treat Timeframe (5 PM - Midnight):

The break will not last long, though, as the next shortwave is then progged to move into the region during the evening of Halloween. Unlike the previous wave, this shortwave will be accompanied by supplemental forcing from a jet streak, which will give the extra push in deep moisture and lift for more widespread light to moderate rain showers.

There is some modest uncertainty in the exact onset of showers, which will be dependent on how quickly moisture can fill in the low-levels. The earliest arrival time of rain for the area looks to be around 4-8 PM from SW to NE (15-40% chance). The most likely time of arrival appears to be between 7 PM and midnight (40-60% chance). Therefore, the earlier Trick-or-Treating starts, the greater chance in staying dry.

That said, even though more widespread and moderate rain showers are forecast, amounts will still be fairly light. It will not be a super-soaker. Forecast amounts generally stay below a quarter inch. Though anywhere that may see a heavier shower or thunderstorm could see up to an inch of rain.

Additionally, temperatures will stay quite mild, maxxing out in the 70s, and bottoming out in the middle 50s to lower 60s. So even if it does rain, mild temperatures should also limit discomfort.

Late Halloween Night into Sunday Morning:

Once the rain arrives, it should be fairly steady through the night (50-70% chance), with only limited breaks. The more widespread rain should exit the area by noon Sunday as the shortwave trough axis moves east of the area.

Sunday Afternoon:

Most the area should be dry Sunday afternoon, but there is a <10% chance for some light sprinkles on the backside of the shortwave.

Long term

Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Gusty southerly winds on Monday, preceding the next system:

On Monday, a deep and energetic trough that had been progressing through the west CONUS during the day Sunday will kick off deep surface cyclogenesis across the north-central Plains. This create a strong mass response, tightening the surface pressure gradient, and increasing southerly wind speeds across the area. Forecasted sustained wind speeds are at 15-25 mph with the NBM showing a >80% chance for frequent gusts above 30, and a 15-25% chance for a few gusts up to 40 mph. While this will be quite windier than what we've had throughout the summer, it is still expected to be below Wind Advisory threshold, with only a less than 10% chance for gusts to exceed the threshold.

Widespread band of rain expected Monday night through Tuesday:

The strong surface winds will finally pump in some appreciable surface moisture to the area, with dewpoints reaching the middle 60s Monday, amid highs still in the middle 70s. The energetic nature of the wave will bring strong and widespread synoptic lift over the moisture, with a surface front clearing through the warm sector. This will bring high certainty in seeing widespread rain with the system Monday night through Tuesday (90-95% chance).

Ensemble clusters are slowly coming into agreement on the nature of the system, with only slight disagreements in timing and exact location. Therefore, rain chances are near certain, with each cluster having a mean precipitation amount of at least 0.75-1.00 inches across the area. The slight disagreements, though, produce uncertainty in potential higher amounts. If enough instability can reach into the area, thunderstorms within the band of rain could lead to localized amounts up to 3-4 inches in some spots (90th percentile of NBM). The system is expected to be very progressive, though, and with the D3-D4 Drought in place, the flooding threat will be minimal even with the higher amounts in play.

Monitoring low-end severe weather potential with the system:

With lots of jet stream energy attending the system, wind shear will be bountiful (40-60 kts of deep-layer shear). Instability is a big question, though, depending on the exact position and timing of the trough. The most likely scenario currently depicts the greatest severe risk Monday being across Kansas and Oklahoma where the current SPC Day 4 15% Outlook is in place. The boundary of this outlook is just west of our southeast Kansas counties. Looking at LREF clusters, there's a decent chance (40-50%) for MUCAPE to be above 250 J/kg as the front moves into our area late Monday night. This could be enough for a high- shear, low-CAPE severe setup. However, the threat would be dwindling as it enters our area with instability decreasing through the night.

With this most likely scenario, Tuesday's threat would also be up in the air. The timing of the system would place any appreciable rebound instability on our far eastern ends of the area Tuesday afternoon. Which would keep the severe risk east of the area. AI guidance does show this "hop" scenario. Of course, there are clusters that depict a slower or faster wave progression which would modify any risk. On that same line, a further south or north position of the trough axis would present more or less instability, also altering the threat. Therefore, expect changes in the forecast as we get closer to the event. Bottom line is at least Marginal threat for a line of low-topped strong storms appears the most likely scenario given the current model guidance.

Dry and slightly above normal temperatures to follow:

The cold front attending the strong wave is actually not expected to be that cold. Temperatures are forecast to only marginally drop into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday, with lows in the 40s.

Aviation

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Medium-high confidence in VFR conditions prevailing for the entire TAF period. Some scattered light showers are possible at JLN between 18-00Z (<30% chance). Otherwise, any precipitation would be very light rain, generally staying above 3 kft as it will evaporate before reaching the surface. This rain would not tamper with visibilities below 6 SM.

Aside from any chance of light rain, clouds will be overcast at/above 10 kft, and winds will be at 5-10 kts out of the southeast.

Watches, warnings and advisories

KS: None. MO: None.