Stephen, MN Weather

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

Day one: Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Days two through seven: Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

Key messages

- Above average temperatures are forecast this weekend into next week.

Update

Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Large upper low and trough over central Canada gradually moves east and is replaced by a broad upper ridge Friday-Sunday period as a large upper trough moves into California and the southwestern US. Lingering area of 850 mb moisture and stratocu on south edge of upper low from southern Saskatchewan thru northern North Dakota into northern Minnesota will gradually scatter out or move out thru the next 24 hours. As flow aloft turns southwest this weekend, there is a weak upper level shortwave that will bring a chance for light rain Saturday.

Discussion

Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

: Synopsis:

Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a mid level shortwave trough moving east-northeast through the Dakotas and Minnesota amid quasi- southwesterly to zonal flow aloft. At the surface, an occluded front is working its way west to east. Seasonably rich moisture and even some instability resides east of the surface front ahead of the shortwave trough. This is driving scattered light showers within the Red River Valley and Minnesota this afternoon. The window for additional thunderstorms in west- central MN has closed with instability already being shunted away to the east.

Tonight, a reinforcing cold front will reintroduce low stratus to areas along and north of US Highway 2, with mostly clear skies elsewhere. This along with increasing surface high pressure nosing into the region and lightening winds may allow temperatures to drop into the mid 20s within portions of eastern ND.

Thursday will be seasonably cool with highs in the 40s and dry amid the post-frontal air mass. Starting Friday, ensemble guidance all points toward upper ridging building into the Northern Plains. This will trend temperatures toward above average, particularly by Saturday. The way this upper ridging builds may also promote low stratus, fog/drizzle - this lowers confidence in exactly how warm temperatures get. Should low clouds/fog/drizzle linger, temperatures may be just slightly above average with high temperatures in the 50s. However, if skies clear, temperatures could soar well into the 60s - especially on Sunday into Monday.

Getting into early to mid next week, ensemble guidance also hints at an upper shortwave trough in the Southwest to either translate or cut off eastward into the Southern and/or Central Plains. While most of this forcing looks to remain south of our area, there could be enough influence from this feature to bring the next round of light rain into the forecast. With how warm antecedent temperatures will be ahead of this feature, as well as lack of colder air advecting behind it, rain would be the favored precipitation type.

Aviation

Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Clouds remain widepsread along and north of HWY 200 tonight with KFAR the only site with clear skies. Where clouds do exist they are largely MVFR as low as 2000 near Cando and as high as 3500 near KBJI. As the night rolls on the MVFR will spread east affecting KTVF and KBJI though the KGFK is a little more uncertain. There will also be breaks in the clouds allowing for temporary 1-2 hour gaps with no clouds at all but choosing to just prevail the MVFR/Near MVFR for now. Winds go light and variable under clear skies tomorrow night so may be a night to watch for fog towards the end of this TAF period.

Watches, warnings and advisories

ND: None. MN: None.