Kitzmiller, MD Weather

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland County Virginia.

Day one: Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Days two through seven: Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Spotter information statement

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

What has changed

No significant changes made to the forecast. Expecting very warm temperatures, dry and breezy conditions behind frontal passage on Friday.

Key messages

- 1) Very warm to end the work week, then seasonal conditions for Halloween Weekend.

- 2)Rain chances remain uncertain for the first half of next week with a more appreciable chance during the latter half of next week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1: Very warm to end the work week, then seasonal conditions for Halloween Weekend.

A weak, dry cold front is progged to cross the region Friday morning, possibly bringing some drizzle to the higher elevations of the Alleghenies. High pressure builds into the region Friday afternoon through the weekend. Expect well above normal temperatures Friday as highs reach the mid to upper 70s. Would not be surprised if a spot or two in central VA reached 80F briefly. Some passing clouds are likely Friday morning to early afternoon, though the background environment is forecast to be very dry, so not expecting much impact on temperatures. Downsloping winds make for a breezy afternoon as winds gust around 20-25 mph, especially along/north of I-66/US-50.

Eventually, some cooler temperatures moves in Friday night through the weekend. Expect seasonable and dry conditions as high pressure holds firm. A shortwave trough passing just south of the area on Sunday won't amount to much as it lacks sufficient moisture or forcing to produce widespread shower activity.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances remain uncertain for the first half of next week with a more appreciable chance during the latter half of next week.

High pressure should hold strong enough Sunday into Monday, where rain chances could be squashed or be confined to upslope rain showers or sprinkles in the higher western elevations. As for temperatures each day, they should be seasonable with highs in the lower to middle 60s.

By Tuesday into Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will begin to push eastward from the Great Plains toward the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. This will aid in weakening the high pressure over us. There are increasingly better rain chances ahead during this period. We may be waiting until Wednesday night and Thursday to see some of these rain showers, but the chances are on the rise. Temperatures will become warmer as well Tuesday and Wednesday and reaching into the lower to middle 70s ahead of a strong trough from the west.

Aviation

VFR conditions are forecast to persist through the weekend as high pressure builds into the region. Breezy west to northwest winds could gust up to 20-25 knots Friday afternoon in wake of a dry cold front passage Friday morning.

VFR conditions Sunday through Monday night. Light southeast to southerly winds around 5 knots each period.

Marine

A dry cold front is forecast to move across the waters Friday morning, then high pressure builds across the region through the weekend. SCA conditions are expected Friday afternoon into Friday night, especially over the open waters of the bay where northerly channeling effects are maximized. Winds diminish Saturday morning, then drop below SCA levels by early Saturday afternoon.

No marine hazards expected Sunday through Monday night. Winds light southeast to southerly winds 5 to 10 knots through the period.

Tides/coastal flooding

Tidal anomalies have remained steady today, so it is possible sensitive locations approach minor flood stage during evening's high tide cycle. After that, offshore flow develops behind a cold frontal passage Friday morning. Winds turn back around out of the south at low speeds which could cause a modest rebound in tides by Sunday afternoon.

Watches, warnings and advisories

DC: None. MD: None. VA: None. WV: None. MARINE: None.